Container Freight Rates Up 130% Since February on Hormuz Crisis

A doubling that took eight months

Shipping a container across the world now costs more than twice what it did in late winter. A Jefferies report circulated on October 19 found that global container freight rates have climbed 130% since February 2026. The broker blamed renewed conflict in the Middle East.1317 By its figures, rates moved from about $2,000–2,500 per container in February to about $4,000–4,500 in October.1119 That ended a long stretch of easing. Rates had drifted lower through much of 2025 and early 2026 as supply and demand came back into balance after the price spike of 2024.1113

The benchmark data supports the headline figure. Drewry's World Container Index, a composite of spot rates on eight major east–west lanes, sat at $1,899 per 40ft container in late February after seven straight weekly declines.2 On October 15 it rose 3% to $4,485.58 That works out to a gain of roughly 136% from the February low. So the Jefferies number, if anything, slightly understates the move on that measure. Measured from the October 2025 trough of $1,651, the composite is up even more.2

Jefferies flagged one variable above the rest: whether shipping lines go back to the Suez Canal despite continuing regional tensions. The report called this a "key monitorable."16 That caveat may matter more than the 130% figure itself.

Hormuz is the trigger, but not the whole story

The rally lines up closely with the war that began on February 28. That day the United States and Israel launched air strikes on Iran. Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by warning ships away from the Strait of Hormuz, boarding and attacking merchant vessels, and laying mines.21 Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd suspended transits through the strait and related routes. Yemen's Houthis also said they would resume attacks on Red Sea shipping, which pushed Suez traffic back around the Cape of Good Hope.21

Eight months later the strait remains effectively closed. One live tracker reported just four vessels crossing on October 18, against a typical 85 a day. The same tracker had Brent crude at about $110 a barrel.22 The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre counted 254 transits in the week to October 14, still about 70% below pre-war levels.30 October has also brought a sharp escalation against container ships in particular. At least 15 were struck in a ten-day span, by drones, mines and in one case a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a small boat.30 Two ships sank near the strait in mid-October, and visible daily transits dropped from 18 to six in about a week.26

The clearest damage is in the Gulf. Jebel Ali in Dubai is the region's largest container port. Its throughput fell 90.1% year on year in the second quarter, to 374,000 TEU.21 Rates from Shanghai to Jebel Ali reportedly quadrupled, from under $2,000 to more than $8,000 per container.28 Carriers that still serve the region are charging heavily for it. Maersk discharges at Fujairah and Khor Fakkan outside the strait and trucks cargo to Jebel Ali. It adds $1,000 per container for any vessel that does transit Hormuz, on top of an emergency freight rate.22

The global numbers can't be explained by the strait alone, though. Hormuz carries about a fifth of the world's oil but only around 2–3% of container volumes. Early in the crisis, Freightos described it as a serious regional problem for container shipping rather than a global one.28 What spread the cost to the rest of the market was indirect. Higher bunker prices led ships to sail more slowly. A major hub was lost. US importers rushed orders forward. Congestion moved from South and Southeast Asian hubs to Shanghai.28 In other words, this was less a closed shipping lane than a fuel and capacity shock that spread through the network.

Where the pain is concentrated

Looking at individual routes changes the picture. The transpacific trade, not Asia–Europe, is driving the composite. In mid-October, Drewry put Shanghai–Los Angeles at $7,884 per 40ft and Shanghai–New York at $10,075. The firm credited strong US import demand.8 Asia–Europe rates are far lower. Shanghai–Rotterdam was $3,522 and Shanghai–Genoa $3,945, and that was after the trade's first weekly gain following 13 straight weeks of decline.8

That gap undercuts the more alarming claims. One analysis says Asia–Europe rates jumped 340% as ships rerouted around Africa.25 Drewry's lane data doesn't match that, at least not now. Asia–Europe spot rates were higher in midsummer, when Shanghai–Genoa topped $5,500, and have been falling since.4 Whatever peak that figure describes, it isn't today's market.

The main reason for that slide is the return to Suez that Jefferies singled out. Drewry reported that Suez transits in week 39 were 68% higher than in the same week a year earlier. Those extra transits add effective capacity to Asia–Europe services and push rates down.6 Drewry called the faster-than-expected return to the Suez route the biggest threat to carriers' efforts to hold rates up.9 Carriers have announced higher "freight all kinds" rates of $4,500–4,800 per 40ft on Asia–Europe from October 19. Drewry says those increases may not hold with so much capacity coming back.8

The Red Sea return also carries a contradiction. The Houthis said in February that they would resume attacks.21 Yet trade press now describes container shipping's Red Sea comeback as running ahead of the risk warnings.26 Carriers are betting that the route is safe enough. If that bet fails, the capacity that is now pushing rates down would disappear again.

The costs that don't show up in the index

For shippers, the base rate understates what they actually pay. In affected lanes, war-risk surcharges, bunker adjustments and congestion fees can add $3,000 to $6,000 per container on top of the quoted rate.23 Earlier in the crisis, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM reportedly added war surcharges of $1,500–4,000 per TEU, with higher charges for refrigerated cargo.27 None of this appears in a composite spot index.

Reliability has also suffered. Drewry described schedule reliability as near record lows this peak season, with port congestion building.5 Cargo diverted away from Hormuz is piling up at alternative gateways. Kuehne+Nagel identified Khor Fakkan and Fujairah as the region's main pressure points. Expeditors reported 10-to-12-day landside delays at Jeddah after cargo is unloaded.26 Vessel tracking from the first days of the war showed how quickly ships departed from published schedules. Dozens were stuck inside the Gulf or diverted to other ports, which led to emergency surcharges, missed connections and longer delivery times for cargo owners.24

Some of the shortages show up outside freight altogether. Petrochemical and plastics supply chains that depend on Middle East feedstock are under strain. One estimate holds that a three-month disruption could take up to nine months to recover from, and the closure has now lasted about seven.28

Trade is bending, not breaking

Higher shipping costs have not yet cut volumes, at least in India. The Jefferies report found that India's containerised trade rose 23% year on year in September, with exports up 22% and imports up 23%.11 Exports to the United States jumped 48%. Shipments to the UAE and Saudi Arabia fell 12–15%.13 Volumes at India's major ports rose 13%, while non-major ports slipped 1% and ports on the east coast declined sharply.13

Several outlets noted, correctly, that these figures don't show freight costs have had no effect.1119 The better reading is that trade is changing direction. Flows are moving away from the conflict zone and toward the US, where demand has been strong enough to absorb $10,000 boxes. Businesses are carrying the higher costs through thinner margins and more expensive landed goods, not by shipping less.14

The verdict: a plateau, not a spike

One point gets lost in most coverage: the 130% surge is mostly in the past. Drewry's composite peaked at $4,526 in August. It has moved within a narrow band of about $4,350 to $4,500 since then.2 Drewry expects little volatility in the near term.8 The market has found a new, higher floor rather than continuing to climb.

The direction from here depends on two factors pulling against each other. More Suez transits and fewer blank sailings are adding capacity that should keep pushing Asia–Europe rates down.8 The escalating attacks around Hormuz, crude above $110, and US demand helped by an extended US–China trade truce are all pushing the other way.622 Our reading is that container rates will stay high, with the transpacific most exposed, until the strait reopens. The biggest risk is a Red Sea incident that sends the returning ships back around the Cape, which would cause a second shock rather than a gradual decline.