Container Shipping Rates Split: Europe Falls, US Lanes Stay High

A composite number that hides two markets

In October 2026, the global average for container shipping rates says less than usual about what shippers actually pay. Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on 15 October, its first gain after three straight weekly declines. Most of that rise came from the Asia–Europe trade.11 The week before, the index had fallen 2% to $4,351, because China's Golden Week holiday cut demand on both the Transpacific and Asia–Europe routes.12 On 1 October it stood at $4,434.13

The composite has stayed in a narrow band of a few hundred dollars. The routes underneath it have not. Shanghai–New York was at $10,075 per 40ft box on 15 October, and Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 3% to $7,884.7 Shanghai–Rotterdam was $3,522 and Shanghai–Genoa $3,945, even after both jumped 6–7% in the latest week.26 Moving a box to the US East Coast now costs nearly three times as much as moving one to northern Europe. The global average conceals that gap.

The year-on-year comparison is the starkest. Ad hoc container shipping costs about 166% more than it did last October, and Shanghai–Los Angeles is up 257% over twelve months.21 The WCI bottomed at $1,651 in October 2025, and its 2026 high so far was $4,526 in late August.17 The rise in logistics costs is real, but it is now uneven, and mainly a US problem.

How the market got here

One account traces the 2026 surge to the Iran war, which pushed up fuel costs and surcharges and lifted the WCI to $4,639 in July. That came after a 2025 in which a brief tariff-driven rush faded and new ships kept arriving.22 Xeneta measures the damage from 28 February, the day before the Hormuz crisis. Its 2 October update put Far East–US West Coast spot rates at $8,346 per FEU and Far East–US East Coast at $11,523. Those are 344% and 335% above pre-crisis levels.25

Europe-bound rates rose too, but peaked much earlier. Xeneta says Far East–Europe and Mediterranean rates have been falling since early July.25 Its chief analyst, Peter Sand, said the Mediterranean was down 43% and North Europe 34% since 1 July. The pace of decline has slowed, he said, but the trend is still downward.5 Measured from 9 July to 8 October, Shanghai–Genoa fell 43% while Shanghai–New York rose 29%.22

Suez is driving Europe down

The main reason the two markets split is routing. Ships are returning to the Suez Canal, and the shorter voyages add effective capacity to the Asia–Europe trade. Drewry reported that Suez transits in week 39 were 68% higher than in the same week a year earlier.13 Freightos noted that the Premier Alliance had joined the move back to the Red Sea. It said more vessels taking the shorter route is likely one reason Asia–Europe rates have slid since mid-July.2

Carriers are pushing back. They are trying to raise freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates to $4,500–$4,800 per 40ft container on Asia–Europe, effective 19 October.26 Drewry has said repeatedly that these increases may not stick, given the extra capacity.11 In its 8 October note it called a faster-than-expected return to Suez the biggest threat to carriers' efforts to hold rates up.12

The 15 October bounce is the first test of that view, and the evidence argues against it lasting. Drewry noted that blank sailings on Asia–Europe would drop to two the following week, from six. Fewer cancellations plus more Suez transits means more ships competing for cargo.26 A post-holiday restocking bump is the most likely explanation for the rise, rather than a turn in the trend.

Why US-bound lanes stay expensive

The Transpacific is a different story, and the explanations differ by source. Drewry points to strong US import demand.11 It also flagged an extended US–China trade truce that could support US-bound cargo.13 Freightos puts more weight on the supply side. Blank sailings, plus backlogs from almost three months of weather disruption at major Chinese ports, could keep the Transpacific rate floor high even in what is normally a quiet period before the Lunar New Year rush.2 Another rate timeline cites fuel costs, congestion and limits at the Panama Canal for East Coast routes.22

The congestion figures support the supply-side reading. Daily Cargo News reported that 136 vessels were waiting at Shanghai and Ningbo, affecting almost 860,000 TEU, with long queues also at Singapore, Qingdao and Port Klang.16 Sea-Intelligence data showed schedule reliability in Asia at only 32.3% in August.5 This kind of strain shows up in more than the spot rate. It brings missed connections, rolled cargo and longer inventory buffers, all of which raise supply chain costs for importers even when the headline rate is flat.

One result is a growing gap between the two US coasts. Xeneta's spread between US East and West Coast rates widened from $772 per FEU before the Hormuz crisis to $3,177 on 1 October.25 East Coast importers are paying a large and growing premium.

The indexes broadly agree on direction, not price

Each benchmark gives a different price level, which can confuse shippers comparing quotes. The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) composite was around $3,343, well below Drewry's composite.21 Freightos week-40 data had China–US West Coast at $8,319/FEU and China–US East Coast at $9,606. Both were flat through the holiday week.1 Xeneta's East Coast figure is about $1,500 higher.5 The NYSHEX index showed Asia–North Europe down about 25% from early August.8

The indexes mostly agree on the shape: Europe falling, US lanes firm. They split on short-term US momentum. In early October, Drewry had Shanghai–Los Angeles flat while Xeneta showed small gains on both US coasts.5 Container News stressed that methods differ, so absolute values cannot be compared directly, but that they all point the same way.8

Some consumer-facing rate guides add confusion. One October rate summary said global prices "continue to rise" while citing a WCI figure that had in fact dropped week on week.2113 A China–US forwarding guide reported 40HQ rates up 11.6% month on month. Further down the same page, it described the lane as down about 24%. Shippers are better served by dated, route-level benchmarks than by summaries of this kind.

Costs beyond the base rate

The headline rates also leave out a growing share of what shippers pay. Surcharges are billed separately from index levels. Maersk recently revised its low-water surcharges on the Rhine, so inland conditions can raise costs as well as fuel.5 Freightos noted that bunker fuel prices had stayed roughly level even as Middle East crude exports moved back toward pre-war volumes. Lower refined-fuel costs may take time to come through.2 Even on regional lanes, the effects of Hormuz linger. One China–UAE rate guide said 40GP rates fell 15.2% from September, while the Strait's risk premium was still being priced into other Gulf routes.24

The pressure is easing in air cargo, the usual fallback when ocean freight gets tight. The Freightos Air Index showed China–North America rates down more than 15% in a week to $5.60/kg.2

Who benefits

Carriers are doing well out of the disruption. ZIM raised its 2026 earnings guidance on stronger freight rates, joining Hapag-Lloyd, ONE and Maersk.4 Lines are also buying into inland and contract logistics: CMA CGM has completed its purchase of FedEx Supply Chain, and Hapag-Lloyd's process with ZIM is still unresolved.4 High rates are paying for carriers' expansion into the rest of the supply chain, which over time gives them more control over the costs shippers face.

Outlook: lower on Europe, high on US lanes

The likeliest path for the rest of 2026 is continued divergence. Drewry expects less volatility in the near term but warns that demand recovery, capacity changes and geopolitics will keep rates unpredictable.11 Sand said the US-bound market has passed its post-Hormuz peak for 2026. He does not expect a collapse and told shippers to plan for high freight costs for the rest of the year.16

The sources support a clear reading. Asia–Europe shippers have the advantage: Suez capacity keeps coming back, and late-October FAK increases look fragile. US importers, especially on the East Coast, face a high price floor held up by congestion, blank sailings and demand that has not yet faded. Average rates may be easing, but they are still about three times their 2019 level.22 The shortages behind that are now mainly about congestion and capacity on specific routes, not demand everywhere.