Container Rates Stall Near 2022 Highs as US Peak Season Fades

Mixed rates and a market at its peak

In mid-October, container freight from Asia to the United States stopped climbing but did not clearly start falling. The trades that carry polymers, titanium dioxide and many consumer goods into US ports are now waiting for demand to weaken. In ICIS's latest weekly review, rates from east Asia and China to the US were mixed. West Coast rates were assessed at $7,475–8,300 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) and East Coast rates at $9,600–11,300/FEU, both close to their highest levels since mid-2022.21 Liquid chemical tanker rates out of the US Gulf were unchanged on the week, although several lanes are under downward pressure.21

The main benchmarks moved in different directions. Drewry's World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container in its 15 October assessment, ending three straight weekly declines.1 Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 3% to $7,884, while Shanghai–New York slipped 1% to $10,075.7 Xeneta's figures edged lower.21 Freightos showed a 2% drop to the West Coast and no change to the East Coast.21 The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index was essentially flat, up 0.04%, and the NYSHEX index rose about 1% to both coasts.21

On the surface the week looks like noise. The analysts' comments suggest the market has reached a turning point.

Analysts disagree on how fast rates fall

The benchmark providers do not agree on what comes next. Drewry is the most cautious about calling a decline. It expects calmer rates next week because blank sailings are keeping capacity stable and US import demand remains strong.21 Its capacity tracker counted six blank sailings for the coming week, the same as the current week.7

Xeneta takes the opposite view. Senior shipping analyst Emily Stausboll said Far East–US spot rates had barely moved over the past month. She expects downward pressure to build now that Golden Week and mid-October are over.21 Freightos research head Judah Levine said this week's dip could be the beginning of a downward trend. He credited peak-season demand and Asian port congestion with holding rates up so far.21

Xeneta's view looks like the better guide. Its chief analyst, Peter Sand, said in early October that US-bound rates had reached their post-Hormuz-crisis peak for 2026.13 He tied the turn to easing congestion in Asia as typhoon season ends and to lower exports during China's October holidays.12 Sand also said there would be no collapse. His three-month forecast puts East Coast spot rates at $6,000–7,000/FEU and West Coast rates at about $4,500–5,500.13 Those levels are well below today's but far above where the market was before the crisis. He called it "a sizeable correction, but not a collapse."15

The strongest evidence comes from carriers' own decisions. Stausboll said 58,200 TEU of capacity was blanked on Far East–US West Coast services this week and 35,500 TEU on East Coast services.21 She noted that carriers would normally add ships when spot rates are triple-digit percentages above February levels. Cutting sailings instead suggests they doubt current prices will last.21 Drewry's count of six blank sailings and Xeneta's TEU totals measure different things, but both show carriers holding back capacity at a time when high rates would usually draw more ships into the trade.

Why freight costs are still so high

The current market traces back to the Hormuz crisis. On 1 October, Xeneta's spot rates stood at $8,346/FEU to the US West Coast and $11,523/FEU to the East Coast. Those were up 344% and 335% from the 28 February pre-crisis baseline.13 The gap between the two coasts widened from about $772 before the crisis to $3,177, which is why Xeneta expects East Coast rates to fall harder.12 Drewry's index shows the same rise. The composite was $1,651 in October 2025 and peaked at $4,526 in August 2026.8

Congestion has kept capacity tight. Sea-Intelligence's Alan Murphy said only 12% of container ships berthed on time at Shanghai in August.22 One industry report put 136 vessels waiting at Shanghai and Ningbo, affecting nearly 860,000 TEU.5 About 8.5% of the global containership fleet was reported tied up in delays in early October.20 Levine, citing Sea-Intelligence, said the Asian backlog could take up to 10 months to clear. He expects congestion and higher fuel costs from the Hormuz closure to keep a high floor under rates even when demand is weak.22

This is the main point for supply-chain cost planning. When rates fall, they will fall from a higher level and toward a higher floor than shippers knew before 2026. Sand made the point plainly: shippers should expect to keep paying elevated freight costs for the rest of the year.16

Demand is starting to cool

Demand indicators point to softening. ICIS reported a projection that November arrivals at US ports will fall 11% from October. That suggests the peak season is ending, with rates likely to ease until pre-Lunar New Year shipping picks up, either late this year or in January.21 Carriers have already moved early: the peak season started in May and pushed transpacific rates sharply higher into July.23 The Port of Los Angeles handled a record 1.04 million TEU in September.9

Asia–Europe shows what may come next for the transpacific. Rates on that trade fell for 13 straight weeks before turning up in the latest Drewry assessment.7 The renewed return of ships to the Suez Canal has been adding capacity.1 Xeneta said Mediterranean spot rates were down 43% and North Europe rates down 34% from 1 July.11 European shippers in tender season are using that drop to negotiate better long-term contracts.11 Carriers are trying to raise Asia–Europe freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates to $4,500–4,800 from 19 October, but Drewry doubts they will stick given the extra capacity.7

Surcharges keep landed costs high

Falling spot rates will not lower shippers' total bills right away. Carriers keep adding charges on secondary trades. CMA CGM is raising Asia–South America rates by $1,000 per container from 15 October, and Oceania–Americas rates by $300/TEU from 2 November.29 Maersk is adding a $1,000 peak season surcharge on dry cargo from the east coast of South America to the US and Canada from 5 November. It is also raising its US inland fuel surcharge from $140 to $215 per container because of higher US fuel prices.29 Even if headline ocean rates come down, inland transport, fuel and lane-specific surcharges may absorb much of the saving.

For shippers starting 2027 contract tenders, the timing is awkward. Sand said in late September that the contract rates shippers want are far below the spot market. Still, they cannot assume current conditions will simply pass, and should assess each source of disruption against their own transport needs.23

Chemical tankers: steady rates, weaker sentiment

US Gulf chemical tanker rates held steady on the week, but sentiment has weakened compared with two weeks earlier. In early October, ICIS described rates ex-US Gulf as steady to higher. Transatlantic rates were rising because an arbitrage window had opened for several chemicals due to the Middle East war. Contract nominations had also left little spare space on US Gulf–Asia.22

That picture has since changed. On US Gulf–Europe (ARA), rates held but demand stayed slow after the EPCA industry meeting. The market was described as balanced, with methanol and caustic soda the main cargoes.21 On US Gulf–Asia, the lane that looked firm through November two weeks ago now faces downward pressure. Charterers are holding off while port tariff issues between the US and China remain unresolved. Contract of affreightment (COA) volumes are the only real support, and some cargoes have already been sent to other ports.21 On US Gulf–India, inquiries have thinned and rates are generally seen as softer. Participants are moving cargoes and vessels to avoid China-related routes.21

The move from firm to soft on the Asia lane shows how quickly trade policy can change chemical logistics. Drewry has said an extended US–China trade truce could support a recovery in US-bound container demand.2 The same policy uncertainty, however, appears to be keeping chemical charterers from booking. Bunker fuel costs also add pressure. ICIS noted early in the month that very high bunker prices could push transatlantic tanker rates higher.22 The broader tanker market shows how far energy-related freight costs have moved: Lloyd's List reported suezmax crude tanker rates rising almost vertically after VLCC rates spiked in September.27

Outlook

Taken together, the transpacific container market has peaked and is close to a slow decline. Carriers are cutting capacity to slow that decline rather than adding ships to profit from high rates. The disagreement among Drewry, Xeneta and Freightos is about how fast rates fall, not whether they fall. Xeneta's forecast of a gradual correction with no collapse fits the evidence best: November arrivals are cooling, carriers are blanking sailings, and the Asia–Europe trade has already corrected.

For chemical producers and importers, the costs that persist will matter more than the fall in headline rates. Port congestion that could take months to clear, Hormuz-related fuel costs, new carrier surcharges and US–China tariff uncertainty all point to logistics costs staying high into 2027. Xeneta has also warned that another major disruption could change the outlook again.12