SpaceX Starship Reaches Orbit, but Reuse Is What Investors Want

A milestone the market shrugged off

SpaceX's Starship has finally reached orbit. On its 14th test flight, the giant rocket's upper stage made it to orbit for the first time and released 26 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites 125. The launch took place early Monday, Sept. 28, from the company's Starbase facility in Texas. Starship reached orbit around 8:15 a.m. local time as employees on site cheered 25.

By engineering standards, this is a big moment. Fourteen flights in, the vehicle has shown it can do the job it was built for: carrying large batches of satellites to orbit and deploying them. Yet SpaceX shares closed roughly 2% lower that day 12.

The gap between the celebration at Starbase and the reaction on the exchange is the real story. Investors seem to be pricing a different milestone, one that has not happened yet.

Why both halves in the ocean matters

The catch is simple. Both stages of the rocket finished the flight in the ocean 12. Starship's promised economics depend on recovering the booster and the ship and flying them again. Until SpaceX shows that kind of full reuse, the cost advantages behind the bullish case remain a projection rather than a result 12.

The Motley Fool argues the market did not overlook anything. In its view, reaching orbit confirmed that Starship can deliver payloads, while the reuse test is the one more likely to change SpaceX's financials 2. Intellectia makes a similar point, calling reusability untested and potentially decisive for future financial performance 1. That is the reading this piece adopts. Orbit was necessary, but it was never going to be sufficient for a stock already valued in the trillions.

The Starlink math behind the rocket

Starship's value is closely tied to Starlink. Each V3 satellite is designed for about 1 terabit per second of downlink capacity, roughly ten times what a V2 satellite offers 2. According to SpaceX's IPO prospectus, one Starship should eventually carry up to 60 of them 2. CNBC reports the company describes that load as about 20 times what its earlier Falcon 9 rockets could carry 5.

By that measure, Flight 14 carried less than half a full load 2. More importantly, adding constellation capacity at the scale SpaceX describes will take a high flight rate. A high flight rate is only affordable if the hardware comes back. A rocket that must be rebuilt for every launch could still put V3 satellites in orbit, but it would undercut the cost curve investors are paying for.

Bulls see a step toward trillions

Not everyone downplays the flight. A Citi team led by John Godyn called it a "major" milestone that moves SpaceX a step closer to a share price of $900 or more 4. That level would imply a market value of about $12.2 trillion, more than double Nvidia's current size, compared with SpaceX's present valuation of around $2 trillion 4. Godyn describes SpaceX's launch capability as the "foundational competitive advantage" behind the rest of the business. He has a $200 year-end target alongside the $900 long-term figure 4.

Elon Musk has gone much further. In a post on X, he said he sees "a path to SpaceX being worth orders of magnitude more than the current Earth economy" 3. Business Insider worked through the numbers. The IMF projects global output of about $126 trillion this year, while SpaceX closed at a $2.2 trillion market cap. Being even 100 times more valuable than the world economy would mean a valuation above $12 quadrillion, roughly a 5,500-fold rise in the share price 3.

Reading the divergence

The sources broadly agree on the facts of the flight: 14th test, first orbit, 26 V3 satellites, both stages lost to the sea 125. They differ on what it signals.

• Citi treats orbital capability as proof that SpaceX's moat is getting wider 4.
• The Fool and Intellectia treat it as a box checked on the way to the test that actually matters 12.
• Musk's framing sits in a separate category of aspiration, untethered from near-term milestones 3.

The muted stock reaction suggests investors largely share the second view. That seems reasonable. Valuations like Citi's target depend on launch costs falling sharply, and launch costs fall sharply only with reuse.

Flight 14 showed that Starship works as a delivery vehicle. The flight that recovers and reflies both halves will show whether it works as a business. Until then, expect SpaceX's share price to respond more to progress on recovery than to orbital firsts.