Global Travel Spending to Hit $1.8 Trillion as Arrivals Slow

A record year that grew more slowly than the headline suggests

International tourism looks set to break another record in 2026, but the figures show that its growth now comes mostly from higher spending per trip, not more trips. The WTM Global Travel Report 2026, produced by Tourism Economics and released as World Travel Market opened at London's ExCeL, forecasts 1.57 billion international overnight arrivals this year. Spending by those visitors is projected at about US$1.8 trillion.28 That makes 2026 another record year by volume and by revenue.

The growth rates matter more than the totals. The report expects arrivals to rise only about 2% on 2025, down from 6% growth the year before, while international visitor spending climbs 6%.14 Adding domestic travel, total visitor spending is expected to grow 9% to roughly US$7.8 trillion.2 The report draws on data from more than 185 countries.8

Tourism Economics' Dave Goodger said leisure travel remains a priority in household budgets, with travellers adjusting how and where they go rather than giving up trips.8 His view is that the industry is still on course for a record year despite the Middle East conflict and higher living costs.2 That is accurate, but it leaves out how much of the record comes from prices.

Spending is rising faster than travel, and airfares explain much of the gap

Most coverage reads the 4-point gap between spending and arrivals growth as a sign that the average traveller is spending more.15 Some outlets put it down partly to "premiumisation," with fewer but richer trips, and partly to inflation in travel costs.3 Pricing data from 2026 suggest inflation is the bigger factor, though this is an interpretation rather than something the report itself states.

In the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' airline-fare index was 23.4% higher in August than a year earlier, far above overall consumer inflation of 3.4%.29 The index had risen 26.7% year on year in May, according to the New York Times.30 CNBC reported a 26.5% rise in June.27 Holiday fares are rising too: Hopper data cited by CNBC put domestic round-trip Thanksgiving fares at $402, up 31%, and Christmas fares at $452, up 23%.22

The cause is fuel. The war involving Iran that began at the end of February disrupted the Strait of Hormuz and pushed jet fuel prices to multi-year highs.22 United and American each said they expected fuel bills about $6 billion higher than planned or than last year.27 Industry estimates put global airline fuel spending at $350 billion in 2026, up from $252 billion in 2025.25 Carriers have passed the cost on through higher fares, fuel surcharges and baggage fees.22

When the price of the trip rises this fast, nominal visitor spending can grow strongly even if people travel no more. The US$1.8 trillion figure is a real record. But it is better read as evidence that travellers are absorbing higher prices than as evidence of booming demand.

Travellers are paying more, and looking harder for value

Airline executives have said this year that higher fares have barely dented bookings. United told investors it saw "minimal to no negative impact on demand" from higher prices.27 JetBlue's chief executive also called bookings resilient.21 The volume data suggest a slight pullback underneath: US airport security screenings were down about 1% year on year through late September.22

Surveys show more strain. In one US survey, 63% of respondents said they expected to fly less in 2026 because of costs, and 53% said they had delayed or postponed a trip.26 The WTM report finds that about one in six travellers chose their latest international destination mainly for value for money, up from about one in eleven in 2025.4 UN Tourism likewise expects travellers to keep seeking value, choosing closer or domestic destinations as prices and uncertainty shape their plans.1920

Taken together, travellers have not stopped spending on trips. They are protecting that spending by travelling shorter distances and choosing more carefully.

Short-haul trips gain, long-haul trips lose

The clearest behavioural change in the report is distance. Travel between world regions is forecast to fall 3% in 2026, while short-haul international trips rise by the same amount.27 Europe benefits most among large regions, with arrivals forecast to grow 5%, ahead of the global average.7 Africa and Oceania are both forecast to grow 8%.2

The Middle East is the outlier. Tourism Economics expects international arrivals there to fall about 40% this year, blaming the conflict, reduced capacity through Gulf aviation hubs and weaker traveller confidence.19 The damage reaches well beyond the region. Gulf hubs carried around 15% of global transit traffic in 2025, so their disruption has lengthened routes and raised fares on Asia–Europe and Africa connections.5 UN Tourism notes that some Southern Mediterranean destinations have gained traffic redirected away from the Middle East.16

North America is also weak. The report forecasts only 2% arrivals growth despite the region co-hosting the FIFA World Cup, leaving visitor numbers 6% below 2019.2 It attributes the shortfall to higher travel costs and negative sentiment towards the United States.2

Where the WTM forecast and UN Tourism data differ

The two main sources of global tourism data broadly agree on the direction of travel but not on the size of the numbers.

UN Tourism's September World Tourism Barometer counted about 690 million international arrivals in the first half of 2026, only 0.4% more than a year earlier.11 Arrivals rose 2% in the first quarter, then fell 1% in the second, including a 3% drop in June led by a 6% decline in Western Europe.12 The agency cut its full-year forecast to 1–2% growth, down from 3–4% in January, the second downgrade this year.1117 UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais summed it up by saying tourism is still growing, but fragilely.17

The two sources agree that 2026 growth sits around 1–2%, that Africa and Europe lead, and that the Middle East is collapsing. They differ on several details:

• Middle East losses: UN Tourism's first-half data show a 22% fall in the region.16 WTM's full-year forecast of 40% implies a much worse second half, and the two differ in methods and timing.
• 2025 growth: UN Tourism recorded 4% growth in 2025, reaching about 1.52 billion arrivals.14 The WTM coverage cites 6%.2
• Europe: UN Tourism's half-year Europe figure was 3%, against WTM's full-year 5% forecast.167
• Visitor nights: Even the WTM coverage varies, putting total visitor nights at 24.2 billion in some reports and 23.9 billion in others.28

On this evidence, the safest description of 2026 is near-flat growth in volume with a record nominal total, not a broad expansion. The 1.57 billion figure is a model projection. UN Tourism's half-year count is the harder number, and it shows clear deceleration.

Airlines are earning more revenue but not more profit

High fares are not translating into record airline profits. CNBC reported that rising fuel costs are offsetting revenue gains, and analysts expect carriers to cut fourth-quarter earnings guidance.22 One Raymond James analyst said that if jet fuel stays around $4 to $4.50 a gallon, airlines are more likely to cut flights than to push broad fare increases. Fewer seats would itself keep prices high.22 A UBS analyst argued in the spring that fares had lagged general inflation since the pandemic and so have room to stay higher, provided demand holds.21

For consumers, this means relief is unlikely to come quickly even if oil prices ease. Airlines have shown they can hold onto price increases while bookings continue.

The 2027 forecast assumes the conflict eases

The WTM report expects a strong recovery next year: 8% growth in global arrivals in 2027, led by an 11% rebound in long-haul travel, and a 43% recovery in Middle East arrivals that would still leave them below 2025 levels.9 Over the longer term it projects about 6% annual growth, taking arrivals to 2.2 billion by 2032.2 It identifies China and India as key outbound markets for the coming years.1

Almost all of that outlook depends on hostilities easing.2 UN Tourism also says the outcome depends on how long the conflict lasts and how it affects oil prices and inflation.11 If fuel stays expensive, the 2027 rebound looks optimistic.

The main lesson of 2026 is that the size of the tourism market and its health are different things. Travellers have kept travel in their budgets, which is genuine resilience. But a record spending total built on 23% airfare inflation and 2% growth in trips shows how much demand depends on prices and fuel. The forecast for 2027 is only as reliable as those assumptions.