Home Insurance Costs Exceed Property Taxes in Most US Counties

A milestone in household costs

For years, the property-tax bill was the cost that set off local political fights over housing. A new analysis suggests insurance has now taken its place. Bloomberg Intelligence reported on Monday that the average homeowners premium is now higher than the average property-tax bill in two-thirds of US counties.21 The researchers also estimated how much of each auto premium comes from extreme weather. When that share is added to the home policy, insurance costs more than property tax in 75% of counties.22

The analysis was written by Andrew John Stevenson of Bloomberg Intelligence. At the county level, homeowners now pay an average of 14% more for insurance than for property tax. Including the weather-related share of car insurance widens the gap to 30%.23 County-level homeowners premiums have risen 45% in ten years after adjusting for inflation, and Nebraska saw the largest increase at 79%.22 The study drew on US Census figures, state insurance regulators, and federal weather and transportation agencies.26

It is not the first warning of this kind, but it is the broadest. In July, a LendingTree study found that homeowners in 15 states pay more each month for insurance than for property taxes. In Tennessee, the estimate was $284 a month for insurance against $143 for taxes.27 The two counts differ, 15 states versus two-thirds of counties, mostly because they measure different things. State averages mix high-tax cities with low-tax rural areas, while county figures show how common the problem is in places with few people. Both point the same way. The county view suggests the problem reaches much further than the state numbers indicate.

Weather, geography and the tax map

The coverage agrees on the main cause: extreme weather tied to climate change is pushing rates up.21 Where that pressure shows up depends a lot on local tax policy. Hail and winter storms are raising premiums across the Midwest and Mountain West, with Colorado, Utah and Minnesota leading.24 Frequent hail is also raising car insurance costs in the Great Plains and Upper Midwest.23

The Southeast shows the biggest gap. Property taxes there are among the lowest in the country, so insurance premiums can be 2.5 to 4 times the tax bill. In the Northeast, the West and big metro areas, high taxes make even fast-rising premiums look smaller by comparison.22

State-level reporting supports this picture. LendingTree data show Arizona's average home premium at $2,225 a year, above the state's average property-tax bill of $1,950, after a 71% rise in five years. Colorado's costs roughly doubled from 2020 to 2025.30 There is a small sign of easing. Arizona's average premium rose 3.6% in 2025, below the national increase of 6%.30 Slower growth is not the same as lower prices, though, and nothing in the reporting suggests premiums are falling.

Why this is political, not just a budget issue

The timing matters. Bloomberg's reporting links the findings to the broader affordability problem shaping campaigns ahead of next month's midterm elections.21 It also notes that a property-tax revolt has been building around the country.22 That puts tax-cutting politicians in an awkward spot. If insurance has become the larger bill in most counties, a tax cut may not ease the pressure voters feel most.

Florida shows this clearly. A University of North Florida poll of 1,511 insured homeowners found that 63% worry more about property insurance than property taxes, while 36% worry more about taxes.28 The pollster said this was striking because property-tax reform, including Amendment 3 on the ballot, had dominated political debate this year.29 The poll also suggests a market in turmoil. A quarter of respondents had been dropped by an insurer at least once in five years. Among people who had lived in their homes for five years or more, 47% had seen premiums rise by at least half. Of those who filed claims, 45% said the claim was first denied.28 Most respondents, 69%, said the insurance industry gained the most from the state's 2022–2023 reforms.28

The cost is shifting to local budgets

The new analysis adds another angle: who pays to rebuild after disasters. Over the past two decades, Washington covered about 90% of disaster recovery costs. That split is now moving toward 50-50, as the Trump administration reduces federal recovery funding for states.22 The examples show the change. After Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Texas received $23 billion in federal aid against $4 billion in local spending. After the January 2025 Los Angeles fires, California received $2.6 billion from Washington while Californians spent $3.5 billion.23

Stevenson said local governments do not have money on hand for unplanned rebuilding, and would rather spend it improving infrastructure than replacing it.22 Deductibles are also rising, so families pay more before their insurer pays anything. That leaves less to spend at restaurants and sporting events, which are the kinds of local spending that bring in tax revenue.22 The result is a cycle: higher premiums cut household spending, which cuts local revenue, at the same moment local governments are asked to pay a bigger share of disaster costs.

Other research makes the housing risk concrete. Texas home insurance rates have risen about 80% on average since 2020, and first-time buyers there are falling behind on mortgages partly because of escrow increases.27 Dallas Federal Reserve research projects that continued premium increases could push an extra 203,000 mortgages a year into delinquency between 2025 and 2055.27

Health insurance: the larger, steadier increase

Home insurance gets the headlines, but health coverage is the biggest insurance cost for many families, and 2027 looks hard. Marsh's survey of about 1,800 employers projects per-worker health benefit costs will rise 8.2% next year. That would be the largest annual increase since 2003, and it already includes employers' cost-cutting plans.7 Other forecasts run higher. WTW projects 11.1%.1 Aon projects 9.5%, which would push average employer costs above $19,000 per employee.3 Workers are likely to pay part of this. Some 59% of employers plan cost-cutting benefit changes, with higher deductibles the most common.1 Two-thirds of firms with at least 500 employees plan to raise workers' share of premiums.10

The individual market is harder to read. A KFF review of filings from 276 insurers found a median proposed increase of 15% for 2027, the second double-digit year in a row.1 Federal documents reported by The Washington Sun suggest the average monthly premium for popular HealthCare.gov plans will rise 11%, after a 30% jump the year before.8 These figures do not contradict each other. One is a median of what insurers asked for, and the other is an enrollment-weighted average on the federal exchange. Either way, enrollees face another year of increases on top of the previous ones. After enhanced subsidies expired, the average marketplace premium paid in 2026 rose 58% to $178 a month.6 Insurers say healthier people leaving coverage is part of the reason for the next round of increases.2 Small businesses also face a median proposed increase of 14% on ACA-compliant small-group plans.3

Auto insurance: slowing, but at a high level

Car insurance is the one area where reports disagree about direction, though the disagreement is smaller than it looks. NerdWallet found the median full-coverage premium rose 32.3% between January 2023 and January 2026, from $1,784 to $2,359. Over the same period, per-capita income grew 13%.11 Its data also show the increases slowing sharply, to 2.6% in the most recent year, with most insurers asking regulators for no change.11 Insurify reports that premiums fell 6% in 2025 and rose about 1% in the first half of 2026, to $2,237. It expects increases in 32 states by the end of the year, led by Connecticut at about 15%.16 The Zebra puts the national average at $2,256, up 3%.19

These reports suggest the worst of the auto price spike is over, but premiums have stayed far above where they were. Drivers with poor credit or violations are still facing increases from insurers that specialize in higher-risk drivers.11 The Bloomberg Intelligence analysis also points to a part of auto insurance that is not easing: the share driven by weather, especially hail in the middle of the country.23

The takeaway

Taken together, the reporting suggests the affordability debate has been looking at the wrong bill. Property taxes are set by local officials who face voters. Insurance prices reflect weather losses, medical costs and repair costs that a ballot measure cannot change. An industry adviser at Arthur J. Gallagher said coverage is getting less affordable but no less necessary, and urged policyholders to be ready to pay for it.24 For households, that means insurance of every kind is taking a bigger share of the budget, and candidates promising tax relief this fall have little to say about the bill that is now larger.