Health Insurance Premiums Set for Double-Digit Jumps in 2027

Insurance Bills Are Rising Again, but Not at the Same Pace

Americans will see their 2027 insurance bills in the coming weeks, and health coverage is where most of the pain is concentrated. Open enrollment season shows a clear split. Health insurance costs are rising faster than they have in about two decades. Auto and home premiums are still going up, but more slowly and unevenly than during the steep increases of recent years. Most households will pay more for all three, so the slowdown in car and home insurance mostly limits the damage rather than offsetting it.

The reporting broadly agrees on the main point. About 19 million adults with Affordable Care Act plans face a second straight year of double-digit increases, and their employer-insured neighbors face the biggest jump in benefit costs in more than 20 years.2 Health care affordability has also become a central issue in the midterm campaigns, and Democrats are leaning on it heavily.2

The ACA Marketplace: A Second Shock

The most frequently cited figure comes from KFF. It reviewed filings from 276 marketplace insurers across all 50 states and Washington, D.C., and found a median proposed premium increase of 15% for 2027.1 Last year insurers proposed a median 18%, and the finalized median ended up at 20%.1 KFF says this year's request is the second-highest since 2018.2

The figures diverge here. The Washington Sun, citing federal documents it reviewed, reported that average monthly premiums for the most popular HealthCare.gov plans will rise 11% in 2027, after a 30% jump last year.4 In those documents, an average silver plan costs $73 more per month, or $876 more per year.4 Older Congressional Budget Office projections put the benchmark premium increase lower still, at about 7.7%.7

The numbers measure different things. KFF's 15% is a median of insurers' proposed rates nationwide. The Washington Sun's 11% is an average for popular plans on the federal exchange only.4 Both still point to a second consecutive double-digit increase. This analysis treats the 11% figure as a sign the market is steadying, not as relief. Some enrollees are paying 30% to 40% more than they did two years ago.1

The causes are mostly self-reinforcing. The enhanced premium tax credits expired at the end of 2025, which brought back the subsidy cliff at 400% of the federal poverty level.7 About 1.6 million marketplace enrollees were in that income range last year.3 Enrollment in the individual market fell 18% to 20.5 million by June 2026, a loss of more than 4.6 million policyholders.8 Insurers expect younger, healthier people to keep leaving, which leaves an older and sicker pool behind.1 KFF estimates that this expected decline in enrollee health adds about four percentage points to the proposed 2027 increases.8

New rules add to the pressure. A federal rule finalized in May shortens the shopping window to November 1 through December 15 and tightens income checks. HHS itself estimates the rule could reduce marketplace enrollment by up to 2 million people. A federal court has blocked part of it.7 Some of the reporting, though not all, also points to Republican legislation passed last year as a factor pushing insurers to raise prices.1

Employer Plans: The Biggest Jump Since 2003

About 160 million Americans get coverage through work, and employer plans are now under heavy strain too.2 The benefits consultancy Marsh, formerly known as Mercer, surveyed more than 1,800 employers. They expect total health benefit costs per employee to rise 8.2% in 2027, the largest increase since 2003.36 That figure already includes cost-cutting measures. Without them, employers estimated an 11% increase.5 It would be the fifth year in a row of above-normal growth, following an 8.8% increase from 2025 to 2026.34

Projections vary here as well. WTW forecasts an 11.1% increase.3 PwC projects a 9% medical cost trend, and Segal projects a median medical trend of 9.9% with prescription drug costs rising 11.5%.32 For small-group plans, insurers have proposed a median increase of 14%.31 Every forecast lands well above general inflation. Over the past decade, family premiums rose 53% and deductibles 54%, compared with 36% inflation.1

The headline percentage matters less than who ends up paying it. Marsh's 8.2% is total cost per employee, including the employer's share, so it does not predict what any one worker's paycheck deduction will be.37 Employers have made their plans clear, though. Fifty-nine percent plan cost-cutting changes such as higher deductibles, and about two-thirds of large employers expect to raise workers' share of premiums.6 The out-of-pocket maximum for most plans also rises to $12,000 from $10,600.35

KFF's Matthew Rae has warned that steep small-group increases could lead some small firms to stop offering coverage entirely.2 Health care workers are not exempt. One Boise nurse practitioner said her family's monthly premium rose from $700 to $1,500.33

Why Health Costs Are Climbing

The reporting largely agrees on the causes. Marsh's chief actuary says wider use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs accounts for a full percentage point of 2027 cost growth.1 Ongoing inflation, health care labor shortages and hospital consolidation, which gives large systems more power in price negotiations, all add to costs.3 Marsh also points to expensive new cancer treatments, AI-assisted billing that produces more and higher-level claims, and costly disputes under the No Surprises Act.33 KFF found that the median underlying increase in medical costs in marketplace filings was 10%.2

UNC health policy professor Jonathan Oberlander said it is unclear whether the past two years mark the end of a long period of moderate health spending growth. If so, he said, it "would be a big deal."1

Medicare enrollees are affected too, though less directly. The standard Part B premium is projected to reach $209.50, up from $202.90.5 Some stand-alone Part D enrollees could pay $50 or more a month.10 Millions of people in private Medicare plans are being forced to switch coverage for 2027.9

Auto Insurance: Back to Normal Increases

Car insurance looks very different. After a 6% national decline in 2025, Insurify projects full-coverage premiums will rise only about 1% in 2026.11 The Zebra puts the average annual premium at $2,256, up 3%, and notes that increases are much smaller than in recent years.12 Insurify's national monthly average held steady at $187 for full coverage through the summer.13

The national average hides large differences between states. Insurify found rates rising in 27 states in the first half of the year and expects 32 states to finish 2026 higher. Connecticut is up 15% year over year, and Kentucky and West Virginia are each up 8%.14 New York has moved the other way, with prices down 13%.14 Insurify's CEO says repair costs have risen 45%, driven by supply chain problems from the pandemic era, inflation and tariffs on auto parts.15 Commercial auto has had rate increases for 59 straight quarters, a sign that liability and repair costs still outpace premiums in parts of the market.18

Home Insurance: Slowing, With Sharp Local Increases

Home insurance follows a similar pattern, but the regional spikes are steeper. NerdWallet's analysis of more than 840 million rate estimates found premiums for a typical home up 24% over three years. The increase over the most recent year slowed to 4.6%.22 Insurers' 2026 filings asked for a median change of just 1%, which suggests some carriers are prioritizing winning new customers over raising rates.22

Estimates of the national average differ. Insurance.com puts it at $2,872, and The Zebra puts it at $2,966.2421 The local increases are what stand out. Massachusetts premiums jumped 42.9%, Minnesota's rose 22.1% and Nebraska's rose 21.1%. Florida remains the most expensive state at $8,471 a year.24 State Farm raised Illinois rates 8% after a 27.2% increase in 2025, citing losses from severe weather.23 Illinois has since passed a law giving regulators more oversight of rate increases.23

Health Costs Are Now the Main Pressure

Taken together, the coverage shows a change in which bills are squeezing household budgets. From 2023 to 2025, car and home insurance drove the jump in insurance spending. In 2027, health coverage will. Its increases are larger, harder to avoid, and tied to political choices about subsidies and enrollment rules. Shopping around can still lower a car or home premium. It does far less to offset a smaller marketplace risk pool or an employer moving costs onto workers.

The most practical advice in the coverage is to choose a plan actively rather than auto-renew. Networks, drug lists and subsidy amounts are all changing at once.6 Federal open enrollment runs only until December 15, so people have less time to compare plans than in past years.7