Grocery Prices Push US Shoppers to Pay More for Fewer Items

Bigger bills, fewer bags

US supermarkets are taking in more money while customers carry home less. Circana and 210 Analytics found that grocery unit sales were close to flat in September. Frozen foods, meat and seafood gained, while fresh produce and bakery fell behind.54 Circana's broader Demand Signals tracker shows the gap clearly. Consumer packaged goods volume fell 0.4% over the latest four weeks, but dollar sales rose 2.9%. The firm reads that as shoppers paying more for fewer purchases.55 Produce has been the biggest drag on food and beverage volume. Excluding it, retail food and beverage units were roughly flat.55 A Circana executive told a produce industry audience that produce dollar sales were flat over the 52 weeks ending in October while unit sales fell.50

Higher prices are now doing most of the work in grocery sales figures, and the government's own retail data says the same thing more loudly.

Retail sales growth that is mostly price

The Commerce Department's advance estimate put September retail and food services sales at $745.0 billion. That is up 0.8% from August and 6.3% from a year earlier. Census notes that these figures are adjusted for seasonal swings but not for price changes.1116 Economists had expected a 0.3% gain, so the headline looked strong.14 Most of the surprise came from gasoline stations, where sales jumped 6.4%. Excluding gas, retail sales rose just 0.2%.14 Oxford Economics chief US economist Michael Pearce said nearly all of the headline jump came from rising gasoline prices.14 Sales at food and beverage stores rose 0.4% on the month.15 The control group that feeds into GDP calculations rose only 0.1%, down from 1.2% in August.15

That 0.4% gain at grocers came in a month when overall consumer prices rose 0.6%.13 Annual inflation reached 3.7% in September, driven by gasoline. Food prices were up 2.5% from a year earlier, down from 2.7% in August.28 Food inflation is milder than the headline rate, but it builds on years of earlier increases. One industry analysis estimates that food-at-home prices rose about 28% between 2019 and 2024. Over the same period, Kroger's net sales grew 21%. The author argues that, after inflation, the chain moved fewer physical goods.21 That calculation is the author's own and not an official volume measure. It still describes the same pattern the 2026 data shows.

Some individual items show how much prices have moved. The average pound of ground beef is approaching $7, compared with under $3.80 in 2019.22 NIQ checkout data compiled by NBC News shows mixed results since January 2025. Egg prices are down 31% from their spring 2025 peak era, while orange juice is up 23% and ground beef is up 17%.27 Coverage of a new WalletHub study points to the Middle East conflict as a renewed source of food inflation this year. It also notes that affordability has become a central issue in the midterm elections.22

How shoppers are adjusting

People are not eating less so much as buying differently. NIQ's "End of Pantry Loading" report found that small packages are outselling large ones. Over the 52 weeks ending Aug. 8, sales of 7.5-ounce sodas rose 6.8% in value while 2-liter bottles fell 3.5%. Four-serving cereal boxes surged 57.4% while 12-serving boxes dropped 9%.51 NIQ's explanation is that bulk packs cost less per serving but more at the register, so some households now choose the smaller total bill.51 Trips to restock items running low made up 35% of food purchases last year, up from 29% in 2024.51 NIQ also points to smaller households and to GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, which it says were used in 21% of US households as of May.51

The sources disagree on one point. Reporting on the WalletHub study says discounters such as Costco, Walmart and Aldi are taking share from Kroger and Albertsons. It also cites the Private Label Manufacturers Association's figure of a record $282.8 billion in store-brand sales last year.25 Circana's latest tracker tells a different story. It says premium brands are winning and squeezing value and private-label share, with shoppers trading up for quality or enjoyment.55

Both are probably true for different households. Wealthier shoppers can still pay for upgrades, while everyone else trades down or buys smaller amounts. The pressure is heaviest at the bottom of the income scale. USDA figures cited in the WalletHub coverage show the lowest-earning fifth of households spent 33% of pretax income on food in 2024. The average household spent 12.9%.22

Confidence near record lows

Surveys show how strained households feel. The University of Michigan's final October sentiment reading was 48.0, revised up from a preliminary 46.3 and nearly unchanged from September's 48.1.40 Only May's 44.8 has been lower.48 In the preliminary October data, the current-conditions index fell to an all-time low of 44.7. Survey director Joanne Hsu attributed the drop to sharply worse buying conditions for big-ticket goods amid high prices and borrowing costs.42 The final current-conditions reading was 46.7.40 Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, and long-run expectations rose to 3.5%.40 The biggest declines were among lower-income households and people with smaller stock holdings.42

Other surveys show the same thing. The LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index fell 5.3 points to 45.2 in October, its lowest reading since October 2011. It was the second-largest monthly drop in the survey's history, behind only April 2020.46

The usual caution applies. Sentiment can fall well before actual spending does, especially when jobs are holding up. New York Fed data suggests worries about losing work have not risen much.42 The problem is prices, not paychecks disappearing. That fits a pattern of people still spending in total but cutting back on volume and discretionary purchases. Circana's holiday survey points the same way. The average shopper plans to spend $779 this season, down from $796, and 74% plan to save by using promotions and store brands.42

Subscription price hikes add to the squeeze

Grocery bills are not the only rising cost. Streaming services, a recurring monthly bill for many households, raised prices again in 2026. In September, Disney raised ad-free Disney+ and Hulu by $2.50 a month to $21.49 each, a 13% increase. It was the fourth price hike in four years for both services.33 The Hollywood Reporter says streaming prices have risen about three times faster than general inflation since 2022.33 Netflix raised every US tier in March, lifting Premium to $26.99.37 Peacock raised prices in August, and Apple TV went up $2 to $14.99.30 One estimate puts a typical bundle of Netflix Standard, ad-free Disney+, HBO Max Standard and Peacock Premium at about $73 a month before taxes.39

Any single increase is small. Together they add to the fixed monthly costs households have to cover before they reach the grocery store. Bills on autopay usually get paid first, so food purchases are often where families cut back.

Signs of strain in household credit

Credit data shows households absorbing these costs, with some early signs of strain. Seeking Alpha's Credit Pulse tracks seven big card issuers. Their average delinquency rate rose to 2.62% in September from 2.51% in August, while net charge-offs fell to 2.09%.3 The Federal Reserve's credit-report data looks much worse, with 12.92% of card balances 90 or more days delinquent as of the second quarter.8 The difference is partly about measurement. Banks write off debts they expect to lose, but those balances stay in the Fed's data.8 The New York Fed has cautioned that the rate of new card delinquencies has been fairly stable for almost two years.5

Other credit data is less reassuring. Philadelphia Fed data shows that 9.3% of auto borrowers nationwide have severely delinquent debt. Both auto and card delinquencies reached their highest levels in more than 20 years over the past year. The share of consumers with debts in collections rose to 13.8%.1 Lenders are not yet preparing for a downturn. Equifax said institutions have not cut credit lines. It also said inflation has hit lower-income and subprime borrowers hardest.3

What it means

Taken together, the September and October data suggest US consumers are not collapsing but are adapting. Retail and grocery sales figures look healthy mostly because of higher prices. Underneath, unit volumes are flat or falling, and shoppers are buying smaller packages and planning each trip. Confidence is near record lows, and lower-income households are using up savings and credit.

Retailers are also wary. BDO's Natalie Kotlyar warned that strong sales cannot last indefinitely when paychecks lag behind prices.14 Pearce expects spending to slow into the holidays as higher prices weigh more heavily.14 The next retail sales report comes out Nov. 17.20 The headline number is likely to look healthy again. The better guide to household health is unit volume: how many items people are actually buying.