Grocery Inflation Slows to 1.8% as Gas Pushes CPI to 3.7%
US grocery prices rose 1.8% year over year in September, down from 2.2%, even as gasoline lifted headline CPI to 3.7% and consumer sentiment fell to 46.3.
Consumer Confidence Index
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) measures how optimistic or pessimistic households feel about the economy, their personal finances, and their willingness to spend. Compiled through surveys—most notably by the Conference Board in the United States and GfK in the United Kingdom—the index tracks perceptions of current business and labor market conditions alongside expectations for income, employment, and inflation over the coming months. Because consumer spending drives a large share of economic activity in most developed economies, shifts in this sentiment gauge often act as an early signal of where growth, retail activity, and even monetary policy may be headed.
The index has become especially significant now as central banks weigh interest rate decisions against a backdrop of persistent inflation concerns, cooling labor markets, and uncertain wage growth. Investors and policymakers alike scrutinize each release for clues about whether households are pulling back or continuing to spend, since sudden confidence swings can foreshadow shifts in retail sales, housing demand, and broader economic momentum. A stronger-than-expected reading can boost equity markets and shift expectations for rate policy, while a weak print can stoke recession fears.
On this hub, readers will find ongoing coverage of monthly and quarterly confidence releases from major economies, analysis of how these figures intersect with inflation data and Federal Reserve or central bank commentary, and comparisons across regions such as the U.S. and UK. Expect reporting on market reactions, economist forecasts, and the broader implications for consumer spending, business investment, and policy decisions as confidence trends evolve.
Latest findings
Grocery Prices Slip in September While Coffee and Produce Climb
U.S. grocery prices fell 0.1% in September and are up 1.8% on the year. Meat and eggs got cheaper, while coffee, candy and fresh fruit kept rising.
Grocery Prices Set to Climb as Diesel Tops $6 and Sentiment Sinks
Diesel above $6 is pushing Campbell's and Conagra to raise grocery prices as consumer sentiment slumps and gas-inflated retail sales mask weak spending.
Consumer Confidence Falls to 12-Year Low as Fuel Costs Bite
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 in September, its lowest since 2014, as fuel costs drove inflation to 3.7%.
Halloween Candy Prices Up 71% as Real Spending Stalls
Halloween candy prices are up 71% since 2021 to $16.96 a bag, so record 2026 candy spending of $4.1B mostly reflects higher costs as confidence sinks.
US CPI August 2026: Energy Holds Inflation at 3.4% as Core Firms
US CPI held at 3.4% annual inflation in August 2026 as gasoline and fuel oil surged, while core CPI rose 0.29%, raising odds of a Fed rate hike.
Retail Monitor Shows 12th Straight Sales Gain as Confidence Sinks
September retail sales rose 0.28%, a 12th straight monthly gain, even as consumer confidence fell to a 12-year low and gas prices squeezed budgets.
US Retail Sales Up 0.8% in September, but Gasoline Did the Work
US retail sales rose 0.8% in September to $745B, but gasoline drove most of it as grocery volumes fell and consumer sentiment sank to 46.3.
Consumer Confidence Index Falls to 81.9, Lowest Reading Since 2014
The Conference Board's September Consumer Confidence Index fell to 81.9, its lowest since 2014, as fuel costs, inflation fears and job worries hit households.
Consumer Confidence Sinks as 3.7% Inflation Squeezes US Shoppers
US inflation rose to 3.7% in September and consumer sentiment fell near record lows, yet shoppers kept spending despite higher gas, grocery and streaming costs.
Consumer Confidence Slides as Gas Prices Outrun Grocery Relief
Consumer sentiment hit a four-month low of 48.1 in September and fell to 46.3 in October as gas prices jumped. Grocery inflation actually eased to 1.8%.
Consumer Confidence Stays Near Record Lows as Gas Prices Ease
Gas prices dipped from September's high, but sentiment hit record lows as inflation rose to 3.7%. Retail sales grew mostly on higher prices, and borrowing
What Midterm Candidates Can Really Do About Grocery Prices
CPI, retail-sales and confidence data show grocery prices easing but still high, testing what midterm candidates can credibly promise voters.
August CPI: Core Inflation Surprise Hardens Case for Fed Hike
August CPI rose 0.4% and core inflation topped forecasts at 0.3%, pushing Fed rate-hike odds near 90% as grocery prices stayed flat but sentiment sank.
Grocery Prices Dip as 3.7% Inflation Sinks Consumer Confidence
September CPI rose 3.7% on a 9.1% gas jump while grocery prices slipped 0.1%; consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 as shoppers plan to cut spending.
Inflation Cools on Paper as Groceries, Bills, Confidence Lag
August CPI, consumer confidence and streaming price data show inflation cooling on paper while groceries, gas and subscriptions keep costing households more.
Grocery Prices Push Shoppers to Cut Units, Not Just Brands
Grocery prices remain far above 2019 levels, pushing shoppers to buy less, switch brands, and rattling consumer confidence despite steady spending.
Consumer Confidence Slips as Grocery Prices Squeeze Voters
Consumer confidence fell again in August as inflation and gas prices weigh on Americans, raising political stakes ahead of the midterms.
Consumer Confidence Hits 7-Month Low as Midterms Loom
US consumer confidence fell to a 7-month low in August as gas prices topped $4, weighing on Trump's approval ahead of the midterms.
Consumer Confidence Falls to 89.4, Lowest in Seven Months
US consumer confidence fell to 89.4 in August, a 7-month low, as gas prices and inflation concerns weighed on household sentiment.
Consumer Confidence, Inflation Data Set to Sway Fed Outlook
Wall Street awaits consumer confidence and inflation reports that could shape Fed rate decisions and reveal shifts in grocery price pressures.
Consumer Confidence, Inflation Data Set to Sway Wall Street
Wall Street awaits new consumer confidence and inflation data as retail sales and shopper sentiment show signs of strain.
Consumer Confidence, Inflation Data Set to Sway Wall Street
Wall Street awaits new inflation and consumer confidence data as reports show mixed signals on prices, spending, and shopper sentiment.
Consumer Confidence, Inflation Data Loom Over Wall Street
Wall Street awaits key consumer confidence and inflation reports as U.S. and global sentiment data diverge, testing rate and growth expectations.
UK Consumer Confidence Hits Two-Year High, GfK Reports
UK consumer confidence hit a two-year high per GfK, contrasting with mixed inflation and sentiment trends in the US and euro zone.