Gas Prices Set Autumn Records as Brent Crude Rebounds Past $110

A September spike that broke the seasonal pattern

In most years, gasoline prices drift lower once summer driving season ends. That didn't happen in 2026. On September 24, AAA said the national average for regular gasoline had climbed nearly 5 cents in a week to $4.48 a gallon, the highest it has ever been for that time of year.11 A week earlier the average was about $4.44. A month earlier it was roughly $4.10, and a year earlier it was about $3.16.11 AAA blamed continued instability in the Strait of Hormuz and expensive crude oil.11 Regional coverage of the same release added a third factor: fear that the Middle East war could spread.13

The weekly gain was small, but the record is the bigger story. AAA said September was on pace to average $4.30 a gallon, well above the previous September record of $3.83 set in 2023.1316 Diesel looked worse. Kelley Blue Book reported that it hit an all-time high of $6.53 a gallon on September 22, after rising 84 cents in 30 days.19

Nearly a month later, the national gas average has come down, but crude oil has moved the other way. That gap is the most important thing for drivers to understand right now.

What the data showed

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) numbers AAA cited in late September pointed to a tightening market. Gasoline demand rose from 8.79 million to 8.84 million barrels per day. Total domestic gasoline supply fell from 207.7 million to 206 million barrels, and production slipped slightly.11 Crude inventories gave a different signal. At the September 23 close, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude had gained $1.64 to $92.16 a barrel, yet U.S. crude stocks rose 3 million barrels to 426.4 million, about 2% above the five-year average.13

That combination matters. When gasoline gets expensive while U.S. crude storage is above normal, the cause is usually global risk priced into oil, not a shortage of barrels at home. The September numbers fit that pattern.

Prices also varied widely by region. California led the most expensive states at $6.23 a gallon, followed by Hawaii, Washington and Nevada. Texas, Indiana and Mississippi were the only states averaging under $4.11 Nevada's average jumped 17 cents in one week to $5.36, and Reno passed $5.60.18 Not every state followed the national trend. New Jersey's average fell 3 cents that week to $4.39 even as the national figure rose.13

October: pump prices ease while crude climbs

By October 8, AAA reported that the national average had dropped 5 cents in a week to $4.36. It was still a record for autumn, and AAA said 2026 is the first year the average has stayed above $4 in October.17 The same update noted that crude had fallen into the $80s for a few days and then risen back above $90.17 By mid-October the national average was down another 6 cents to $4.29, according to AAA figures reported in Georgia.20 AAA's posted average for October 20 was about $4.28.11

Crude prices have gone the opposite direction. Daily WTI futures data show a steady climb from about $88 in early October to around $99 by October 21.9 Late on October 19, Brent briefly topped $110, its highest level in five months. Traders were reacting to renewed Iranian strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which, according to Kpler data, cut Persian Gulf oil flows from more than 20 million barrels a day to about 8.5 million.3 Reuters, citing Kpler, counted at least 18 tanker attacks in two weeks.3 Houthi forces also claimed strikes on Saudi airports and Aramco facilities. CNBC could not verify those claims.10 On October 21, Brent was trading near $110 again after touching $111.99 the previous session. LSEG analysts said the attacks had spread as far as the Gulf of Oman.2

Outlets reported different prices because they measure different things. Fortune put Brent at $112.85 on the morning of October 20.4 CNBC reported a WTI close of $103.66 on October 19.10 Other trackers showed WTI near $98 a day later.7 Part of the gap comes from the expiring November WTI contract, which settled at $101.79 on October 202, while the December contract traded closer to $99.5 EIA spot data in mid-October also showed physical Brent above $125, far above the futures price.1 Our reading: when physical cargoes cost much more than futures, it signals that refiners are struggling to get actual barrels, not just that traders are nervous.

There is no real disagreement about direction. Brent is about 84% higher than a year ago, according to Fortune's tracking.4 Pump prices have not caught up with that rally yet. Gasoline usually reacts to crude with a lag, and Fortune notes that crude typically makes up more than half the cost of a gallon.8 AAA's own Georgia spokesperson warned that the crude increase could limit further savings at the pump.20 We think the October decline in gas prices is more likely a pause than a trend. If Brent stays above $105 into November, the national average will probably head back toward $4.40 to $4.50.

Natural gas: the cheap fuel behind the data center boom

Natural gas is the main exception to the run-up in energy prices. U.S. benchmark gas traded around $3.01 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on October 20. That is up about 6% over the past month but roughly 13% lower than a year ago.29 Storage looks adequate. EIA reported a smaller-than-expected 67 billion cubic foot injection for the week ending October 9, leaving inventories 1.3% above the seasonal norm.29 In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecast Henry Hub, the main U.S. gas price, at $3.48 for 2026 and $3.16 for 2027. It expects rising production to more than offset growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.21

U.S. gas is also very cheap compared with the rest of the world. One market summary put Henry Hub near $3.08, against roughly $23 to $26 per MMBtu at the main European and Asian benchmarks. European storage is about 15% below its five-year average.27 Asian LNG prices have reportedly risen above $30 as shipping risks grow in the Middle East.3 The disruption that pushed up gasoline and diesel has mostly bypassed the U.S. gas market, because the country produces more gas than it uses.

That cheap gas matters because data centers increasingly run on it. Gas supplies about 40% of U.S. electricity generation, according to EIA.21 One regional energy supplier reported that gas burned for power rose nearly 5% year over year in September and named data centers as a key reason.24 EIA expects demand from the commercial sector, which includes data centers, to grow 2.8% in 2027.21 Analysis from Always On Energy Research, a think tank critical of energy mandates, found that new gas plants at $60 to $86 per megawatt-hour were the cheapest way to supply round-the-clock data center load in all seven grid regions it modeled.22

Where the costs are showing up

The pressure from data centers is showing up in power grids more than in gas prices. In PJM, the largest U.S. grid operator, summer power prices rose about 56% from last year. July demand hit 163 gigawatts, and operating reserves fell to roughly 5 gigawatts. One analysis described this as risk moving away from fuel costs and toward a shortage of power plant capacity.27 PJM's capacity price, the price for guaranteeing future power supply, rose from $28.92 to $333.44 per megawatt-day across three auctions, mostly because of data centers, according to one industry overview.30 EIA expects wholesale electricity prices to average $52 per megawatt-hour in 2026, 11% higher than in 2025. It attributes most of that increase to extreme weather rather than computing demand.21

Analysts disagree about how much data centers will matter. S&P Global analysts expect data center power demand to add about 4 billion cubic feet of gas use per day by 2030, compared with more than 10 billion from LNG exports.26 Others warn that demand is arriving faster than new production.26 Our view: through 2027, LNG exports will matter more than data centers for Henry Hub prices, while data centers will matter more for local electricity bills.

Bottom line

The nearly 5-cent jump in late September now looks like the peak of a first wave. The causes haven't gone away. Tanker attacks are increasing, Brent is back above $110, and diesel remains close to its record.219 EIA still forecasts gasoline will average $3.91 for 202623, but that average includes cheaper months earlier in the year and is likely to look optimistic if the current crude rally holds. For now, natural gas and the data centers relying on it are insulated from the oil shock. Drivers are not.