Mid-Hudson Gas Prices Plateau Near $4.40 as Crude Tops $100

A pause at the pump, not a retreat

In the last week of September, after several weeks of sharp increases, gasoline prices in the Mid-Hudson Valley mostly stopped climbing. On Sept. 28, according to GasBuddy figures, Ulster County's average slipped half a cent to $4.39 a gallon, and Dutchess County's rose 1.6 cents to $4.447.21 Greene County had the biggest move, up 8 cents to $4.481, while Columbia County edged up 0.7 cents to $4.414.21 Every county was still about 36 to 38 cents above its level a month earlier, so the plateau held prices near their high rather than bringing them down.21

That context matters for drivers. The week before, prices had jumped across the region. Columbia County rose 14 cents in a single week, and Dutchess hit $4.461, the highest average in the area at the time.24 New York's statewide average rose 10.3 cents that week to $4.46.24 Pump prices then flattened out. The state average fell 0.9 cents to $4.45 on Sept. 28, which was still $1.29 a gallon more than a year earlier.21 For comparison, New York's average on that date was $3.17 in 2025 and $3.22 in 2024.21

The trend since then has been a slow drift lower. On Oct. 5, Ulster rose 3.4 cents and Greene fell 5.5 cents, leaving the region mixed.23 By Oct. 12, most of the valley was down: Ulster was at $4.364, Columbia had dropped 5.3 cents, and only Greene posted a small gain.22 The statewide average stood at $4.422 that day, its first reading below the month-earlier level in this run of reports, but still nearly $1.30 above a year before.22

The national picture: records for the season

The national numbers follow the same pattern. AAA reported a September monthly average of $4.33 a gallon, 50 cents above the previous September record of $3.83 set in 2023.2 Early in October, the auto club said pump prices were still at record highs for autumn even after a weekly drop.1 By Oct. 17, AAA put the national average at about $4.31, about six cents lower than a week earlier and roughly 13 cents below a month earlier.8 AAA also noted that the average has stayed above $4 every day this October, a first for the month.8

GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said the national average has now been above $4 on 158 days in 2026, the most for any calendar year on record.6 Before the Iran war began in February, the average was under $3.6 One weekly tracker puts the increase since late February at about 48%.4 Federal inflation data showed gasoline prices rising more than 9% from August to September, which accounted for over half of that month's overall price increase.6

The two main trackers give somewhat different figures. GasBuddy had the national average at $4.29 on Oct. 12.22 AAA reported about $4.33 to $4.36 around the same time.14 The gap comes from different survey methods and timing, and both show the same thing: prices are falling slightly from a very high level.

Crude oil: why the decline may stall

The late-September plateau depended on crude prices. GasBuddy expected modest declines in many states as long as oil stayed below $100 a barrel. De Haan also warned that geopolitical events could move prices either way with little notice.21 AAA linked its Oct. 1 decline to crude falling back into the $90s.2

That cushion has mostly disappeared. In mid-October, attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz increased. Iran said it was stepping up strikes in response to a U.S. blockade of its ports and new sanctions.13 Kpler data showed average daily flows through the strait falling to 11.62 million barrels in the week to Oct. 13, compared with a baseline of 17.15 million.17 U.S. commercial crude stocks also fell about 8.6 million barrels, which analysts partly blamed on Hurricane Isaias shutting in Gulf of Mexico production.1117

Prices rose quickly. On Oct. 16, WTI settled at $101.41 a barrel and Brent at $109.86.18 Brent briefly touched $110 for the first time since May. WTI gained more than 10% for the week.15 Coverage of the rally varied because reports captured prices at different times. Snapshots from early Friday showed WTI near $97.75 and Brent near $105.92, before the afternoon jump.1113 Reports agree on the direction, but the exact figure depends on the hour.

Goldman Sachs outlined a scenario in which crude could reach $120 if attacks on ships escalate, and said a return to normal exports could bring it down toward $80.15 Releasing the remaining 100 million barrels under the IEA's March emergency agreement may calm sentiment a little. Analysts doubt it will ease the diesel shortage.1317

In my view, the Mid-Hudson plateau will likely end with prices moving sideways rather than continuing to fall. Retail gasoline usually follows crude with a lag of one to two weeks.7 Because crude jumped in the middle of October, wholesale costs are now rising while pump prices are still slipping.

Refining is a second problem

Crude is not the only issue. In early October, De Haan said refineries located behind the Strait of Hormuz still could not ship all their products out. That has kept gasoline and diesel prices higher than crude prices alone would suggest.23 The EIA said the September increase in retail fuel prices came from higher crude and also from wider crack spreads, the margin between crude and refined products.35

Diesel is the clearest example. AAA had it at about $6.33 a gallon on Oct. 17, compared with about $3.64 a year earlier.8 One analysis put the year-over-year increase at nearly 72% as of early October.5 Strikes on Russian refineries have tightened global diesel supply, and Ukraine has promised to keep hitting them.2415 This matters in the Hudson Valley, where many homes heat with oil. ABC News reported that households are bracing for an expensive winter as heating-oil costs rise.6

Natural gas is behaving differently

Natural gas is the main U.S. energy price that has not followed oil upward. Henry Hub was trading around $3.17 to $3.19 per million British thermal units in mid-October.714 The EIA expects it to average $3.48 in 2026 and $3.16 in 2027. The agency cites larger-than-average inventories, with rising production more than covering growing LNG exports.35 Most of this year's high average comes from January, when Winter Storm Fern pushed Henry Hub to $7.72.31

Abroad, the situation is different. The IEA reported that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Asian LNG spot prices more than 65% above pre-crisis levels.37 Goldman expects natural gas and refined fuel prices to rise because supply shocks affect those markets more than crude.15 For now, though, U.S. gas markets are largely protected by domestic production.

Data centers: an electricity issue, not a gasoline one

Data centers have no direct effect on gasoline prices. They use electricity, not oil, and North American grids generate very little power from crude.36 Their effect shows up in the natural gas and power markets, where it is significant.

Forecasts for that demand vary widely. BloombergNEF projects that gas burned to power U.S. data centers will rise by 15 billion cubic feet per day by 2035, more than double its estimate from December.33 S&P analysts give a smaller figure for this decade, about 4 Bcf by 2030 for data centers, compared with more than 10 Bcf of growth in LNG demand.32 The EIA expects commercial-sector electricity demand, which includes data centers, to grow 2.8% in 2027.31 The IEA says about half of U.S. demand growth through 2030 will come from data centers.39

The effects are already visible in some areas. The EIA expects wholesale power prices in the PJM region to rise 41% this year, while the national average rises 11%.35 PJM capacity prices increased more than tenfold over three auctions, mostly because of data center demand.37

For households in the Hudson Valley, all of this adds up to higher costs. Gasoline has stopped rising but remains near record levels for the season. Crude is above $100 again, so pump prices could rise. Heating oil and diesel are much more expensive than last year. Natural gas is still relatively cheap, but growing AI-driven electricity demand is pushing toward higher power bills over the longer term. On Oct. 12, De Haan said it was far too early to say the pressure on fuel prices was over.22 A week later, crude prices supported that warning.