Gas Prices Hold Near $4.40 as Brent Crude Eases Toward $102

A record September, a modest October dip

American drivers just finished the most expensive September on record at the pump, and early October has brought only marginal relief. AAA put the September monthly average for regular gasoline at $4.33 per gallon, 50 cents above the previous September record of $3.83 set in 2023.4 By October 1, AAA's national average had slipped nearly 7 cents week over week to $4.41.4 By October 10 it stood at about $4.37.4

Other trackers show the same plateau, with small differences that reflect timing and methodology. One snapshot showed $4.40 on October 2, up roughly 25 cents (6%) from $4.15 on September 4.1 Another recorded $4.39 on October 8, down 4 cents from the prior week.2 A third logged $4.37 on October 6.3 That figure is 39.4% higher than a year earlier, though 2.5% below a May peak of $4.48.3 The September monthly average also varies by source. LendingTree's figure of $4.36 is slightly higher than AAA's $4.33, and its series shows a steady climb from $3.93 in July and $4.06 in August.34 All of these numbers point the same way: prices have stopped rising but have barely started falling.

Crude is retreating, slowly

The wholesale picture explains why. Brent crude slipped about 0.3% to roughly $102 a barrel in early Monday trading, and WTI fell about 0.7% to near $90.50.5 Two supply factors outweighed fresh geopolitical alarms.

• Strategic reserves: The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves, a move that followed pressure from President Trump.5
• Gulf exports: Middle East crude exports topped pre-war levels on four of seven days in the last week of September, despite tanker attacks around Hormuz.5

Those forces outweighed Houthi claims of new strikes on Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and Khurais.5 Aramco also cut prices unexpectedly for Asian buyers. Market commentary read this as a sign that Riyadh is prioritizing sales volume as flows recover, which could weigh on competing Middle East grades and narrow Brent's premium.5

Still, $102 Brent is far from cheap. The same analysis argues the downside looks limited while Brent holds near $100.5 Confirmed damage to Saudi facilities, escalation in Yemen, or new disruption in Hormuz could quickly rebuild the risk premium.5

The war premium at the pump

The broader context is the conflict with Iran. Roughly 33 weeks in, the national gas average is up 48% from $2.96 on February 26, 2026.2 It is also about 28% higher on average than the same 33-week stretch in 2025.2 Over the past eight years, gasoline averaged $3.08 a gallon, about $1.31 below current levels.2

The burden is spread unevenly across states.

• California remains the most expensive state, at $6.40 on October 2 (45.6% above the national average) and $6.38 on October 6.13
• Hawaii followed at $5.63, with Washington and Nevada both at $5.48.3
• Indiana was the cheapest state, at $3.79 in one reading and $3.72 in another, ahead of Ohio and Georgia.13
• Utah had the sharpest monthly jump, up 12.2% from $4.42 to $4.96 between early September and early October.1
• Every state posted a year-over-year increase of more than 20%.3

Diesel is the bigger problem

The most consequential number may not be gasoline at all. Diesel averaged $6.32 a gallon on October 6, up 71.7% from $3.68 a year earlier.3 That is nearly double the percentage rise in gasoline.

The pressure on diesel could build further. Ukraine has pledged to intensify strikes on refineries, which the market analysis flags as a separate upside risk for refined products, particularly diesel.5 The G7 release does include diesel.5 Even so, elevated distillate prices feed directly into freight, farming, and goods costs in a way that pump-price headlines tend to understate.

What to expect

The most likely path is a slow grind lower at the pump rather than a sharp drop. Several signals support that view:

• Crude is easing at the margin, not collapsing.
• Retail gasoline prices typically trail wholesale moves.
• The week-to-week declines tracked so far are measured in single-digit cents.24

If Gulf exports keep recovering and the reserve barrels reach the market, drivers could see a gradual retreat from the $4.40 range. That relief rests on fragile ground, however. A single confirmed hit on Saudi infrastructure or a Hormuz disruption could reverse it.5 Until the conflict premium fades, a record September looks less like a peak and more like the new baseline.