Oil Prices Ease as Trump Pauses Iran Strikes Until the Midterms

Oil eases, but the floor is still high

Oil prices fell on Friday, October 9, after two developments on the supply side. President Donald Trump said the United States would not strike Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, and China moved to restart refined-fuel exports after its Golden Week holiday.2127 The scale of the move is the main point. Brent crude futures dropped $1.10, or 1.1%, to $103.18 a barrel by mid-afternoon in London. West Texas Intermediate fell 49 cents to $91.00.27 One market tally had Brent down 1.4% at $102.82 at its low.29 By the end of the session, Brent had recovered most of that and traded about 0.3% lower at $103.87.21

That is a pause, not a reversal. Brent rose more than 4% on Thursday, its biggest daily gain in two weeks, and was still heading for a weekly gain even after Friday's dip. WTI was on track for a small weekly loss.2127 The move only looks large next to how close crude came to spiking again. One market analysis said Brent had approached $110 before Trump spoke.30 Saxo UK strategist Neil Wilson said Brent reached almost $106 before Trump's comments pushed it toward $104.21 Oil is still more than $100 a barrel in the eighth month of a war, and Friday did not change that.

What Trump actually promised

In a Truth Social post, Trump said Washington was having "productive discussions" with Tehran and that the US would not attack Iran before the midterms.21 The post followed a report in The Atlantic that the White House had asked the Pentagon for strike options that could be used before the vote. Deutsche Bank analysts said that report cut against the market's assumption of a quiet pre-election period.21 The political backdrop matters too. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only about a third of Americans approve of strikes on Iran. Republican support for Trump's approach fell from 82% to 73% in a single week.26

The promise is limited in two ways. First, it has an end date: it covers only the weeks before the election. Second, it does not touch the economic campaign against Iran. Washington has kept its blockade in place25 and imposed new sanctions on individuals, networks and 17 vessels carrying Iranian crude, fuel and petrochemicals.27 Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said Tehran was reviewing the US response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.27 Iran's atomic energy chief has also said Tehran will neither give up uranium enrichment nor hand over its stockpile. That leaves the main obstacle to a settlement in place.30

Hormuz: the reporting does not agree

Accounts of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz conflict more than any other part of this story. Before the war, about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed through it.21 Trump said 22 million barrels moved through the strait in one night, none of it to or from Iran. That figure could not be independently verified.21 A separately circulated clip had him citing 28 million barrels.28 Wilson described flows as having been slowly rebuilt to pre-war levels.21 Other reporting points the other way. One industry outlet said Iran has hit at least one tanker passing through the strait every day for three weeks.30 Its newswire listed Hormuz tanker traffic at a two-month low,30 and Reuters reported that transits had fallen to their lowest in more than two months after the attacks.13

The Reuters data looks like the better guide. Trump's figures come with no verification, and tanker-tracking data and daily attack reports point to a strait that is still being contested. If that reading is right, the market that sold off Friday is still pricing real physical risk, and the decline was about the threat of escalation fading rather than supply coming back.

China's fuel restart is smaller than it sounds

China's return to fuel exports pushed in the same direction. As the world's largest oil importer, China had paused shipments of refined products during Golden Week. Resuming them is expected to ease tight global supplies of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel.2127 PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga named Trump's pledge and China's exports together as the reasons prices fell.27

The details are less impressive. Chinese authorities approved about 3.7 million tonnes, or roughly 29 million barrels, of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel exports for October. That is below the 1.0 to 1.1 million barrels a day China shipped in August and September.30 Spread over the month, 29 million barrels works out to a bit under a million barrels a day. China is restarting, but at a lower rate than before the holiday. That matters because the Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have both disrupted supplies of refined fuels, especially diesel.27

Hurricane Isaias and the Gulf shut-ins

In the US, Hurricane Isaias is a bigger supply problem than Iran this week. It was the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, and Florida, Alabama and Georgia declared states of emergency.21 Producers in the Gulf of Mexico have halted about 1.3 million barrels a day of oil output and 1.1 billion cubic feet a day of natural gas.21 The US Marine Minerals Administration put the oil shut-in at 62.9% of current Gulf production as of Thursday.27 One analysis said the storm has stopped about two-thirds of offshore oil output and 57% of gas output, with potential oil losses of up to 9 million barrels alongside lower refinery runs.30 Personnel had left 121 production platforms, about a third of the 371 manned platforms in the Gulf.21

The oil and gas markets read the same storm differently. For crude, the outages add to supply risk. For natural gas, Gulf Coast storms often lower prices instead. They can shut LNG export plants and knock out power to homes and businesses, and both cut gas demand.16

Natural gas and LNG export terminals

Henry Hub prices stayed in a narrow range. November futures settled around $3.19 per million British thermal units on Thursday, near a two-week high, after a storage build larger than expected.16 One price tracker had the contract at $3.234 at Friday's close, down about 10.6% for the year.14 Natural Gas Intelligence reported the November contract up for the week at about $3.22.20 Gas output has come off its peak. Lower 48 production averaged 111.5 Bcf/d so far in October, down from a record 113.3 Bcf/d in August and September, after force majeure events and pipeline outages.11

The LNG export terminals help explain why the storm has not pushed gas prices higher. Isaias was forecast to come ashore between Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle and largely miss the Texas-Louisiana LNG export complex.15 Feedgas to the nine large US export plants averaged 16.9 Bcf/d so far in October, down from 17.9 Bcf/d in September. Reuters attributed the drop to a liquefaction train outage at Freeport LNG in Texas and planned maintenance at Cove Point in Maryland.16 A separate dataset showed feedgas rebounding to about 18.8 Bcf/d on Thursday, its highest since late September.15 The difference comes from comparing a monthly average with a single day's reading, and both point to export demand recovering.

Meanwhile, the gap between US and overseas gas prices is large. US LNG exports rose to 10.61 million tonnes in September, the most since April, and Europe took 53% of them.15 European TTF futures for November rose to about $25.65 per MMBtu, roughly eight times the Henry Hub price. Europe's storage is low, at about 72.8% of capacity, and it is competing with Asian buyers ahead of winter.15 US storage, by contrast, stood at 3,500 Bcf, 68 Bcf above the five-year average.15 The EIA expects US gas production to grow about 3% in 2027 to 116.1 Bcf/d, faster than domestic demand. That points to continued downward pressure on Henry Hub prices.30 US gas buyers are largely protected from the war. Europe is still exposed.

Gasoline prices: down, but at an October record

Gasoline prices have eased only slightly. AAA's national average for regular was $4.37 on October 9,1 after $4.36 on October 8, down about five cents in a week. This is the first October on record with the national average above $4 a gallon. A year ago it was $3.12.58 September set its own record for the month, averaging $4.33 according to one AAA summary6 and $4.30 according to an earlier mid-month figure.2 California averaged $6.33 a gallon. Diesel prices are far higher everywhere, at more than $8 in California and close to $6 even in Texas.1 AAA has warned that Isaias could push pump prices up if it disrupts production or refineries.8 US crude stocks fell 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million, leaving them only about 1% above the five-year average.5 That leaves little buffer.

The pattern is similar in Britain. The RAC said average diesel fell below £2 a litre, but it is still about 57p above its pre-war level, and petrol is about 42p higher.21

The takeaway

Friday's fall came from easing fears rather than more supply. The pledge not to strike Iran has an expiry date, Chinese fuel exports are below their pre-holiday rate, and Hormuz traffic still appears to be under pressure. Isaias has also taken a large share of Gulf oil output offline. In this reading, oil likely stays above $100 at least until November 3, and any break in the US-Iran talks, or new attack on a tanker, could push it back toward $110. US natural gas is the exception, with plentiful supply, ample storage and export terminals the storm is expected to miss. Pump prices will probably stay at seasonal records until Hormuz traffic actually recovers.