Brent Crude Dips Near $103 as Trump Touts Iran Talks

A brief easing in a market still near $100

Oil prices fell on Friday, October 9, after President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Washington was having "productive discussions" with Iran and that the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.1216 Early in Asian trading, Brent fell 72 cents, or 0.7%, to $103.53 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 52 cents to $90.97.18 By mid-morning in Europe the drop had grown to about 1.3%, with Brent near $102.91 and WTI near $90.40.1716

The price quotes differ from one outlet to the next, and the gaps reflect when each snapshot was taken rather than any real disagreement. Trucking-industry coverage put Brent down 1.2% at $103.01.13 The Guardian's closing update had Brent only about 0.3% lower, at $103.87.16 Late-day energy price feeds showed Brent back above $104.40 Taken together, the day's move looks more like a pause than a reversal.

The drop came after a sharp rise. On Thursday Brent climbed more than 4% to $104.28, its largest one-day gain in two weeks, after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and new attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.16 Neil Wilson of Saxo UK said Brent had come close to $106 before Trump's post pulled it back to about $104.16 Over the past month the benchmark has moved between roughly $96 and nearly $110.13 Even after Friday's dip, Brent was still on course for a weekly gain. WTI was heading for a slight weekly loss.1718

Why traders doubt the diplomacy

Markets have seen this before. On March 23, Trump delayed an ultimatum to Iran, citing "very good and productive conversations," and Brent fell from $114 to $102. Iran then denied that any negotiations were taking place, and by March 27 Brent was back at $114 after talks failed to produce a ceasefire.11 That history explains why the market gave up so little on Friday.

Some things are different this time. Iran's Tasnim news agency reported that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran was reviewing the US response to an Iranian proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.1518 Before the war, the strait carried about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).16

Washington's other actions point the opposite way. On Thursday it imposed new sanctions on individuals, networks and 17 vessels linked to Iranian oil, petroleum products and petrochemicals.17 Trump also said the US blockade would stay "in full force."12 He claimed 22 million barrels had moved through Hormuz in a single night, none of it to or from Iran. That figure could not be independently verified.16

The Guardian linked the pre-election pause to politics. A late-September Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only about a third of Americans approve of strikes on Iran.16 Read this way, the pledge is tied to the election calendar rather than to progress on a settlement. It pushes the risk of new strikes past November 3 without removing it. Vantage Markets made the same point when it listed the midterm date as one of three key dates for oil.20 China's restart of fuel exports after its Golden Week holiday also helped ease prices, since it should add diesel, gasoline and jet fuel to tight markets.16

Hurricane Isaias and US offshore production

While Middle East risk eased slightly, US supply got worse. On Thursday, Hurricane Isaias had shut about 1.3 million barrels per day of Gulf of Mexico oil production, or 62.9% of the region's output.1518 By Friday evening the Marine Minerals Administration reported 1,458,814 barrels per day offline, or 71.51% of Gulf production. It also reported 1.26 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas shut in, and 129 platforms evacuated.40 Three days earlier, only about 185,000 barrels per day had been shut in.40

This helps explain why the two benchmarks moved differently over the week. Vantage Markets' view is that Brent is pricing the Hormuz risk while WTI is pricing the storm.20 That seems right. Diplomacy affects one supply problem, and the weather affects the other. Neither has been resolved.

Gasoline: falling, but still a record for October

Gasoline prices are moving the right way for drivers but remain high. AAA put the national average at $4.36 a gallon on October 8, about 5 cents lower than a week earlier. That is still the highest ever for this time of year, and 2026 is the first year the average has been above $4 in October.24 A year ago it was $3.12.5 By AAA's October 9 reading it had edged back up to about $4.37.2 The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly survey showed a similar trend, with regular gasoline at $4.354 for the week of October 5, down 11.1 cents from late September.7

CBS News measured the rise from the day before the war began. The average was $2.98 on February 27 and $4.37 on October 9, an increase of 47%.10 Prices vary widely by state. California averaged $6.34 a gallon, followed by Hawaii at $5.63 and Washington at $5.46.5 AAA's Oregon office said higher crude exports from the Middle East and oil stock releases by G7 countries had pushed prices down early in the month.6 That means further relief depends on Middle East shipping continuing to flow.

EIA data also showed gasoline demand rising to 8.76 million barrels per day while refinery output of gasoline fell to 9.34 million barrels per day.2 Demand rising as production falls makes it hard for pump prices to drop quickly, even when crude eases. Europe faces the same problem. In the UK, diesel fell below £2 a litre, but the RAC said it is still about 57p higher than before the war.16

Natural gas: steady in the US, tight abroad

US natural gas has behaved very differently from oil. November Henry Hub futures, the main US gas price, closed the week at about $3.22–$3.23 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), a weekly gain.3138 That is still down about 10.6% since the start of the year.38 Storage is ample. The EIA reported an 85 Bcf injection, bringing inventories to 3,500 Bcf for the week ended October 2.37 Natural Gas Intelligence put that 68 Bcf above the five-year average, and Reuters described it as 2.0% above.3437 Analysts also noted that six or seven straight below-normal injections have been shrinking that cushion.43

The hurricane is affecting gas less than oil. The federal offshore Gulf supplied only about 2% of US marketed gas production in 2025. Analysts said storms are more likely to lower prices by shutting LNG plants and cutting power than to raise them through lost supply.37 Isaias was forecast to stay mostly clear of the Texas–Louisiana LNG export hub.34 Production has still weakened. Lower 48 gas output fell from record highs of 113.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in August and September to 111.2 Bcf/d so far in October. Pipeline problems contributed, and daily output was heading toward a four-month low.37

The war's biggest effect on gas is the gap between US and overseas prices. Natural Gas Intelligence reported that the European benchmark, TTF, was climbing on the Middle East conflict, and that Hormuz attacks were raising winter LNG supply risks for Europe and Asia.3136 In September, TTF and the Asian benchmark JKM averaged just over $25/MMBtu, many times the Henry Hub price.43

US LNG export terminals

That price gap is why US export terminals are running hard. US LNG exports averaged 17.4 Bcf/d in the first half of 2026, up 23% from a year earlier. The EIA said that was the fastest growth since large-scale exports began in 2016.48 Shipments to Asia more than doubled over the period.48 Corpus Christi's Stage 3 project was completed on August 28, raising the terminal's peak liquefaction capacity to 3.9 Bcf/d.42 Venture Global has asked federal regulators to approve commercial service for Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 and is targeting October 31.43

October has been weaker so far. Gas flows to the nine large export plants dropped to 16.9 Bcf/d, from 17.9 Bcf/d in September and a record 18.8 Bcf/d in April. A train outage at Freeport LNG and planned maintenance at Cove Point caused most of the decline.37 The slowdown comes from equipment problems and maintenance, and demand from overseas buyers has not fallen. The American Gas Association has asked whether the wide price gap will push terminals toward maximum use in the near term.42

Data centers and long-term gas demand

Over the longer term, LNG exports and AI data centers are the two biggest sources of new US gas demand. BloombergNEF projects that power plants serving data centers will burn an extra 15 Bcf/d of gas by 2035. That is more than double its forecast from last December, and the revised figure already assumes some announced projects will not be built.2724 It puts total power-sector gas use at 54 Bcf/d by 2035, with LNG exports adding 21 Bcf/d, the only larger source of new demand.26 Producers are expected to add 35 Bcf/d of output by 2035, but BloombergNEF says meeting that combined demand would need about 11 Bcf/d more.26

The building plans are already in motion. EIA filings now show 60.4 GW of new grid-connected gas generation planned by 2030, up 44% in eight months. Texas accounts for about a third of that capacity.21 Wood Mackenzie has said that "the decade of cheap Henry Hub gas is coming to an end."26

The connection to oil is direct. Analyst Turley warned that if oil prices fell and stayed below about $70 a barrel, drilling in the Permian Basin could slow sharply. That would cut the gas produced alongside oil, which is an important part of US supply growth.27 So a lasting peace deal that brings crude down could, in time, tighten the gas supply that data centers and LNG terminals rely on.

Outlook

Friday's dip does not mean the war premium in oil prices is going away. Trump's "productive talks" comment moved prices by about a dollar. A similar comment in March moved them by $12.1117 At the same time, sanctions are increasing, the hurricane shut-in is spreading, and the attacks on shipping that drove Thursday's rally have not stopped.1740 The next real test is whether Tehran accepts a deal to reopen Hormuz within seven days. If talks fail before or after November 3, Brent's quick moves back toward $105 suggest buyers would return immediately. Until then, US drivers are paying record October gasoline prices and US gas stays cheap while overseas buyers pay far more.