Buyer's Market Hits Record as 41 of 50 Big US Metros Favor Buyers

A record imbalance

Most of the US housing market now favors buyers, by the widest margin in more than a decade of data. Redfin estimates that home sellers outnumbered buyers by 62.6% in September, the largest gap in its records, which go back to 2013.22 The brokerage counted about 1.51 million sellers against roughly 928,900 buyers, up from a revised 56.9% gap in August.27 It was the fourth monthly record in a row.29

Of the 50 most populous metros Redfin tracks, 41 are now buyer's markets, the most it has ever recorded.22 Redfin calls a market a buyer's market when sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%.27 Four metros are balanced: Boston, Chicago, Providence and New Brunswick, New Jersey.27 Only five still favor sellers.

The main reason is that buyers are leaving, not that a wave of new sellers has arrived. Redfin's buyer count fell 2.4% from August, its fifth monthly drop in a row, to a record low.27 National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun said the same thing about his group's data: supply is no longer the problem, and demand is shrinking.32

The five holdouts, and the Sun Belt

The five seller's markets are Nassau County, New York, where there were 28.6% fewer sellers than buyers; Montgomery County, Pennsylvania (-22.7%); Newark, New Jersey (-18.5%); Milwaukee (-16.1%); and San Francisco (-10.6%).29 The same five were the only seller's markets in August too.23

Redfin's explanation is mostly about supply. Around New York, years of limited homebuilding near a major job center have left buyers competing for few listings.22 San Francisco is different: Redfin says wealth from the AI boom is driving more sales and more competition.22 The city had been a seller's market in only one other month in four years before this summer.24

Prices show the gap clearly. In the five seller's markets, sale prices rose an average of 6.4% from a year earlier in August. In the buyer's markets combined, they rose about 1%.22

The Sun Belt is at the other extreme. In Miami there were 158.9% more sellers than buyers, followed by Nashville at 152.3%, Houston at 134.6%, Austin at 130.9% and Las Vegas at 125.5%.30 All 13 metros with more than two sellers per buyer are in the Sun Belt, including four in Florida and four in Texas.29 Redfin points to heavy homebuilding in recent years, which added supply just as borrowing costs pushed buyers out.30 In Florida, rising insurance premiums and homeowners association fees add to the pressure.27 All six Florida metros in the analysis were buyer's markets. Tampa's surplus of sellers jumped from 82.2% in August to 103.7% in September.2529

Only two buyer's markets moved back toward sellers in September: St. Louis and Detroit. In Detroit, the seller surplus fell from 46.5% to 37.9%.22 Boston and Providence are heading the other way, toward becoming buyer's markets.22

Prices are still rising, slowly

It would be natural to expect prices to fall in a market this tilted toward buyers. They haven't yet. NAR's median existing-home price was $417,500 in September, up 1.3% from a year earlier. That's the 39th straight month of annual gains.31 Yun said it was the highest median ever recorded for a September.32 Redfin's numbers match on the rate of growth, also +1.3%, though its median is lower at $393,895.33

The regional figures fit the Redfin map. The Northeast had the biggest annual price gain, 4.7% to $523,600, and Yun said multiple offers still happen in places like northern New Jersey.32 The South rose just 0.2%, and the West was the only region where prices fell, down 0.3%.31

Sales are weak. Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September to an annual pace of 3.99 million, but that was 2.2% lower than a year earlier.31 Part of the monthly gain came from a downward revision to August, so Yun suggested not reading much into it. He also noted that August and September were the two slowest months of the year.32 For context, about 5.2 million sales a year has historically been typical.34

Inventory reached 1.60 million homes, the most since November 2019, or 4.8 months of supply.32 The National Association of Home Builders noted that this months-of-supply figure is the highest since November 2015.38 Homes took a median 33 days to sell, up from 31 in August.31 The details also show buyers getting squeezed out. Sales fell from a year earlier in every price range except $1 million and up, where they rose 4%. NAR's affordability index dropped to 105.4. Only 8% of agents expect more buyer traffic in the next three months.32

Our reading: flat national prices hide a split. Strong Northeast markets are pulling the average up, while much of the Sun Belt is barely holding steady. The CalculatedRisk newsletter expects prices to come under pressure as inventory rises and demand falls.8 The supply and demand numbers point that way, even though the price data haven't turned yet.

Rates climbed again, and forecasts followed

Mortgage rates are the main reason buyers are leaving. Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed rate was 7.40% for the week of October 15, unchanged from the week before. Four weeks earlier it was 6.95%, and a year ago it was 6.30%.17 Bankrate's survey of large lenders showed 7.39% as of October 21.13 The daily index from Optimal Blue had dropped slightly to around 7.28–7.29%.1216 That's still close to its 52-week high of 7.46% on October 5, and far above its February low of 5.90%.16

The timing matters for the sales data. Freddie Mac's average was 6.86% in September.32 Many of the September closings likely locked rates earlier in the summer, when rates were around 6.5%.35 That means NAR's September numbers don't yet fully show the effect of rates above 7%. The NAHB said much the same, expecting sales to stay slow for the next few months.38

Forecasts have moved up. Fannie Mae's October forecast puts the 30-year rate at 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 7.5% through 2027. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is a bit lower, at 7.3% for the end of 2026, easing to 7.1% by late 2027.14 Some forecast summaries online still cite older projections of about 6.8% for year-end from Fannie Mae and the MBA.11 Those numbers are out of date. The newer forecasts are more reliable, and they mean no meaningful relief through next year. Fannie Mae expects the 10-year Treasury yield to stay around 5.3%.14 Short-term views are mixed: most experts in Bankrate's poll expect rates to hold steady over the next week.13

Mortgage applications show demand falling

Weekly mortgage application data from the MBA show the fastest-moving signal of falling demand. For the week ending October 16, applications fell 5.3%, and purchase applications fell 7%. Purchase applications were 18% below a year earlier.3 That came even though the MBA's 30-year contract rate fell from 7.50% to 7.41%, its first drop in more than two months.5 MBA economist Joel Kan said higher rates are pricing buyers out and have clearly cooled the housing market this fall.3

The trend has been building for weeks. Purchase applications were 15% below a year earlier in the week ending October 2, when the MBA's rate hit 7.49%, the highest in nearly three years. FHA purchase applications fell 6% that week.1 A week later, the rate reached 7.50%, the highest since November 2023, and the share of borrowers choosing adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) rose to 10.5%.6 Kan said ARM rates were almost a full percentage point below fixed rates, which explains why more buyers are taking them.5 Refinancing was 59% below a year earlier.3 Xactus's Mortgage Intent Index, which tracks credit checks by lenders, was about 25% below last year.3

What it means

The market has more leverage for buyers than at any time in recent memory, but fewer people who can afford to use it. Coverage of Redfin's report focused on this point: buyers have more power, but fewer can afford to buy.26 Higher rates have made buying out of reach for many households, and prices remain near their 2020–21 highs.21

In our view, things will get worse for sellers before they get better. The drop in purchase applications in October hasn't yet reached NAR's closing data. Forecasters now expect rates above 7% well into 2027. Inventory keeps rising. Northeast metros near New York and San Francisco should keep favoring sellers because of their particular supply and wealth conditions. In Miami, Nashville, Houston and Austin, sellers will likely have to cut prices more or wait longer. If a national price decline comes, it will most likely start in the Sun Belt.