Brent Crude Stays Above $100 as Saudi Exports Rebound at Yanbu

A Price That Stopped Following the Barrels

On September 30, Brent crude was trading close to $103 a barrel. Saudi Arabia's export system had clearly recovered, and traders still would not price the oil market as if the crisis were ending. Brent changed hands at $102.90 early in the session and West Texas Intermediate at $89.28, after both benchmarks fell sharply the day before.1 Later in the day Brent rose 0.58% to $103.20, while WTI slipped to $89.55.2 On Tuesday, September 29, Brent futures had settled 2.6% lower at $102.59 and WTI had dropped about 3.5% to $89.38.27

The reason for that drop is the most useful detail in the story. Kpler said satellite imagery showed a "major operational recovery" at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu and Muajjiz terminals on the Red Sea. Nine tankers loaded about 12.5 million barrels at Yanbu over a three-day stretch ending Monday.1 Those terminals had gone quiet after a drone attack on the East-West pipeline that feeds them. Reports from the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg said Riyadh had brought the line back to roughly 3.5 million barrels per day, half of its 7 million bpd maximum.27

The market priced that good news for one day and then stopped. The main reason is that the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved.

Hormuz: The Data Is Better Than the Politics

The numbers on oil leaving the Gulf improved quickly in late September. Kpler put the seven-day average of flows through the strait at 13.2 million bpd, about 77% of the roughly 17 million bpd that moved through it before the war.27 Earlier in the month, average flows were around 6 million to 8 million bpd, so weekly volumes nearly doubled in a matter of weeks.23

The trackers do not agree on how complete the recovery is. Kpler's preliminary September figure for Middle East crude exports was about 16.3 million bpd, the highest since the war began but still about 3.2 million bpd short of February's 19.5 million bpd.24 JPMorgan put Middle East crude exports at 98% of pre-war levels and called it a remarkable recovery for a region still at war.25 Goldman Sachs estimated total Gulf oil exports at 23.3 million bpd, roughly in line with the 2025 average, once so-called dark cargoes are counted.22 Goldman attributes about 5.2 million bpd of those September exports to dark shipments. Windward, by contrast, counted only 55 vessel transits with tracking switched on in one mid-September week, about 94% below normal.22

Those figures fit together better than they first appear. Very large crude carriers each hold about 2 million barrels, many ships cross with their transponders off, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman move large volumes that do not show up as ordinary strait crossings.22 The fair reading is that crude is moving out of the Gulf in near-normal quantities, but through improvised routes that remain exposed to attack.

Diplomacy is also stalled. Iran offered to reopen the strait within seven days if Washington accepted the terms of the memorandum of understanding that collapsed in June. President Trump turned the offer down as flows through Hormuz improved.1 The US Navy is escorting tankers for its Gulf allies while keeping Iranian exports under blockade.27 In effect, the White House is wagering that a recovery built on military escorts is enough. That helps explain why traders kept a risk premium in the price.

Saudi Output: A Strong Recovery, Measured Unevenly

In this crisis, Saudi production and Saudi exports have often moved in different directions. Kpler data cited in September showed the kingdom shipping about 6 million bpd that month, its highest since the war started, back to its 2025 monthly average, and nearly 80% above August's 3.4 million bpd.21 It managed this even while the East-West pipeline was shut, by sending cargoes back through Hormuz along a shipping lane the US military had cleared off Oman's coast.21 Saudi Arabia later told OPEC it produced 8.4 million bpd in September, its highest since before the February strikes on Iran.28

Not every account agrees. One regional outlet, citing tanker-tracking data, says Saudi crude loadings were only about 2.1 million bpd in the first half of September, and notes that the kingdom's OPEC+ quota of 10.478 million bpd is far beyond what it can actually ship.29 Those figures are hard to square with Kpler's monthly totals. The gap probably reflects timing more than a direct contradiction: the pipeline was shut from September 12 until it restarted on September 22, and loadings rose sharply late in the month.2922 Estimates of pipeline throughput after the restart also differ. Kpler put it at about 2.65 million bpd, while Bloomberg reported about 3.5 million bpd and said a full recovery could take around six weeks.22

At current prices, Saudi Arabia comes out ahead. Fortune quoted analysts arguing that $100 oil more than makes up for the lost volume, and TankerTrackers said that attacks by Iranian proxies had pushed Saudi cargoes toward the protected convoy route.26

Why Pump Prices Lag the Crude Recovery

For American drivers, recovering crude flows have brought little relief. In September the national average for gasoline jumped to $4.44 a gallon, and diesel set a record of $6.40.34 By October 26, AAA put regular gasoline at about $4.29, up from $2.98 before the war, with diesel at $6.35 after peaking near $6.53 in September.38 CNN found that by mid-October the national average had been at or above $4 on 165 days this year, beating the previous record of 158 days set in 2022.32

The explanation is refining capacity. Crude is leaving Hormuz in nearly normal volumes, but refined products are moving at only about half their pre-war rate, and Kpler estimates that around 3 million bpd of products are still missing.23 The IEA reported that up to 3 million bpd of Middle East refining capacity has been out of service.25 This is the main reason the September crude rally did not unwind at the pump, and it suggests fuel prices will stay high even if Brent falls.

The political stakes are significant. Average gasoline prices during Trump's second term have now edited past the Biden-era average, $3.472 against $3.471, days before the November 3 midterms.33

Natural Gas Is Telling a Different Story

The US natural gas market has followed its own path. Henry Hub futures dropped to about $2.53 per MMBtu in late October, the lowest level since October 2024, as mild weather and production of roughly 113 billion cubic feet per day weighed on prices.18 They had recovered to around $3.05 by October 28.18

The crisis has mattered more for LNG export terminals than for domestic gas prices. Analysts have noted that the closure of Hormuz cut Qatar off from world markets and that Gulf Coast terminals ran at full capacity to cover the shortfall.14 Gas flowing to the nine major US export plants averaged about 18.2 to 18.3 bcfd in October, compared with 17.9 bcfd in September, which has helped support prices.18 The EIA expects US LNG exports to average 17.6 bcfd in 2026, up from 15.1 bcfd in 2025.15

Record supply has absorbed that demand. The EIA projects US dry gas output will climb from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 112.2 bcfd in 2026, mostly from associated gas in the Permian and from the Haynesville.19 Part of the reason is that drillers are pumping more oil to take advantage of crude prices headed for four-year highs.19 The oil shock therefore adds gas to the US market while also increasing overseas demand for it.

Data Centers: Real Demand, Arriving Later

Electricity for data centers is the long-term variable in the gas outlook. For now, LNG is the bigger driver. One 2026 projection has LNG feedgas adding about 3.7 bcfd of demand this year, against about 0.5 bcfd from higher power burn, a ratio of more than seven to one.1416 Over a longer period the balance shifts. NGI reports that data centers and LNG could each add around 16 bcfd of growth heading into the next decade.11 S&P analysts are more cautious, expecting data-center power demand to add about 4 Bcf by 2030 compared with more than 10 Bcf from LNG.12 Producers are positioning for both. EQT has agreed to buy Range Resources in a $13 billion all-stock deal that would create the country's largest gas producer.19

The Outlook

September 30 now reads as a short break between escalations. By October 8, Brent was back above $105 as Iranian attacks on tankers picked up again.10 On October 26, Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared Hormuz closed after striking two tankers.29 Analysts in Reuters' September poll had already raised their average 2026 Brent forecast to $89.05.7

The main takeaway is that recovering Gulf flows have proved fragile and expensive. They rely on naval escorts, dark tankers and makeshift transfers instead of a settlement. The barrels returned faster than many expected, but the market was right to keep paying a risk premium on September 30, and refined fuels show the strain most clearly.