BNPL Checkout Gaps Drove 19.2 Million Abandoned US Purchases

Missing BNPL at checkout costs merchants sales

For years, buy now, pay later providers pitched merchants on higher conversion rates. New research from PYMNTS Intelligence now puts a size on that claim from the other direction: the sales a store loses when the option isn't there. Among U.S. consumers who left an online cart because their preferred payment method was unavailable, 32% wanted to pay with BNPL. That works out to about 19.2 million shoppers.14 PayPal Pay Later on its own explained 11.1 million of those abandoned purchases.14

The same study looked at the wider checkout funnel. About 21% of U.S. consumers abandoned an online purchase in the 30 days before they were surveyed, and 47% of that group had wanted to use a digital wallet.13 Shoppers under financial strain were much more likely to leave. Consumers living paycheck to paycheck who struggle with their bills abandoned carts at a rate of 29% when their preferred method was missing, compared with 11% for consumers not living paycheck to paycheck.13 Among BNPL brands, 20% of consumers preferred PayPal Pay Later and 12.4% preferred Klarna.13

The finding matters because BNPL providers are going into the holiday season with something to prove. Some of that pressure comes from investors and some from regulators. The data also shows where the real competition in the category is now taking place.

Other surveys point the same way

The PYMNTS figures fit with other recent research, though the size of the effect varies a lot depending on who is asking. A Sezzle survey run with Morning Consult found that 66% of shoppers said they would probably abandon a purchase entirely if their preferred BNPL option wasn't offered.26 In that survey, 82% said BNPL had let them buy something they would otherwise have delayed or skipped. More than a third said a BNPL service had declined them at some point, which Sezzle uses to argue that merchants should offer more than one provider.26

That 66% should be read with care. It comes from a BNPL provider making a case for its own product, and it measures what shoppers say they would do, not what they did. The PYMNTS numbers count actual abandonment over the previous 30 days, which is a more conservative and more reliable measure. Still, both point the same way: when BNPL is missing at checkout, a real share of shoppers go elsewhere.

Adoption estimates disagree even more. JD Power found that 37% of U.S. consumers had used BNPL in the past 90 days, up 5 percentage points in a year, and half of consumers under 40 had done so.22 A Gallup poll from April 2026 found that 51% of Americans had used installment plans for online purchases, and 10% said they relied on them often.16 PartnerCentric's June survey of about 1,000 consumers gave a much higher number: 72% of Americans using BNPL, with Millennials now ahead of Gen Z.21 The spread mostly comes from different questions and time windows. All of these surveys agree, though, that BNPL has moved well past the early-adopter stage.

Usage moves toward everyday spending

How people use BNPL matters as much as how many use it. PartnerCentric found that the median largest BNPL purchase dropped from $900 to $600 over the year, and 24% of respondents said the cost of living was why they were using it more.21 Fullstory's February survey found that 48% of BNPL users use the service at least weekly.25 The Associated Press has reported people using BNPL for groceries, household bills, transportation and rent, according to a column in Inc. that puts the market at about $156.7 billion.4

A product built to spread the cost of a sofa is now regularly covering the weekly shop. That raises the stakes for checkout design. Fullstory found that 79% of BNPL users abandon BNPL checkouts at least some of the time. The most common reasons were unclear costs (34%) and an unclear payment schedule (30%).28 So adding a BNPL button isn't enough. A poorly explained installment offer can lose the sale just as surely as having no offer.

The user base is also changing. Sensor Tower data shows BNPL app downloads up 72% in the first three quarters of 2026 compared with the same period in 2023. For Klarna and Affirm, upper-middle and high-income earners now make up 36% and 38% of users.8 That picture of a wealthier customer base differs from older Numerator research, which found BNPL users skewing toward households earning under $60,000.29 Both are probably accurate. BNPL is spreading in two directions at once: as a convenience for better-off shoppers and as a cash-flow tool for people under financial pressure.

Klarna and Affirm: different investor views

The two biggest pure-play BNPL companies have not been treated the same way by investors. On October 5, Affirm and Klarna shares both rose about 5% in a sector rally, while PayPal gained around 2%.1 The year-to-date picture is very different, though. Affirm was roughly flat for the year, while Klarna was down 55%. That led 24/7 Wall St. to ask whether the rally was a lasting re-rating or a short-lived bounce in the weakest stocks.1 Affirm had also recently announced a partnership with Crate and Barrel and received an upgrade from DBS Bank.5

Wells Fargo's quarterly BNPL tracker, which uses Sensor Tower app data, helps explain the split. Globally, Klarna is still far larger, with 65% of monthly active users in the third quarter compared with 19% for Affirm.6 In the U.S., Affirm had the largest share of monthly active users at 40%, against 36% for Klarna. It also grew U.S. active users fastest, at 7.6% year over year, while Afterpay's active users fell 22.3%.6 App downloads fell year over year for every company tracked. Wells Fargo put that down to seasonality and kept its Overweight rating on Affirm.6

Our reading is that the U.S. checkout is becoming a contest between two companies, Affirm and Klarna, with PayPal's built-in Pay Later product holding a strong position. That last point matches the PYMNTS finding that PayPal Pay Later alone accounted for 11.1 million abandoned purchases.14 Affirm's year has been built on securing large merchants and platforms, including Lowe's, QuickBooks and Bolt earlier in 2026.11 Klarna has kept adding big-ticket and wallet partners, such as furniture brand Article and Google Pay in the U.K.11

Wallets, banks and cards move in

BNPL is also moving beyond the merchant's checkout button and into other parts of the payment process. Apple Pay now offers installment options online and in apps, and in stores on iOS 26. Plans can come from card issuers or from third-party providers whose cards are added to Wallet.15 For merchants, this means a shopper may be able to get BNPL through their wallet even if the store never signed a BNPL contract.

Banks want back into the market. On October 13, Splitit launched a white-label World Mastercard for mid-sized banks and credit unions. Purchases are paid in full within 30 days, and anything above a dollar amount the cardholder chooses can be split into monthly installments.12 Splitit's chief executive said many bankers are surprised when they discover how many of their customers' debit and ACH payments go toward installment loans from fintech lenders.12 JD Power's data gives banks reason to try. Satisfaction with bank-branded BNPL rose to 704, while fintech BNPL brands fell to 603. And 52% of decisions to use credit-card installment plans are made after the purchase, not at checkout.22

The timing of the credit decision is also changing at Klarna, which reportedly plans to offer installment options after a purchase is complete rather than at the point of sale.7 That account comes from a commentary piece rather than a company announcement, so it should be treated with caution. It fits the wider pattern, though: the credit decision is moving away from the checkout button.

What it means

The two trends point in somewhat opposite directions, but both are real. In the short term, the checkout still matters. The PYMNTS data shows that merchants who skip BNPL lose measurable sales, especially from younger shoppers and those under financial strain, who are least willing to wait.1314 Retailers going into the holidays without a widely recognized pay-later option are giving away revenue.

Over the longer term, wallets, issuers and white-label bank programs are building installment options into the payment method itself. If that continues, the button on the merchant's checkout page becomes one route among several. The providers most likely to do well are the ones that are present at checkout and also inside wallets and cards. Affirm's U.S. user growth and PayPal's built-in reach suggest they are best positioned for that right now. Klarna's share price suggests investors still need convincing that its global scale will turn into an advantage in the U.S.