AI Overview Citations Deliver Visibility, Not Clicks: The Data

The citation that doesn't pay

For much of the past year, a growing industry has been built around one goal: getting your page cited inside Google's AI Overviews. The pitch is simple. If generative answers are replacing the top of the results page, being named as a source should be the new version of ranking first. Two separate lines of research suggest that assumption is badly overstated.

An analysis of more than 20,000 queries from the first half of this year found that citations in AI Overviews consistently underperformed on clicks 1. They didn't just trail top organic results. They lagged even traditional blue links sitting near the bottom of the page 1. The study's headline finding is that an AI Overview citation performs roughly like a Position 6 result. It is highly visible, but it draws far fewer clicks than its placement at the top of the screen would suggest 1.

Fewer clicks overall, and a thin slice for citations

A randomized field experiment points the same way and adds detail. When AI Overviews appeared, outbound clicks fell by 39.8% and zero-click searches rose by 34.5% 2. Of the clicks that remained, links inside the AI-generated answer captured just 7.1% 2.

The two findings fit together. The first study looks at click-through rates for cited pages compared with organic positions 1. The second measures what AI Overviews do to the whole click pool, then how little of what's left goes to cited links 2. Taken together, they describe a double squeeze. The summary shrinks total traffic leaving Google, and the citation slot captures only a sliver of what survives.

The methods differ. One is a large observational dataset of queries 1, and the other is a controlled experiment 2. So the exact magnitudes shouldn't be merged into a single number. But the direction is the same in both, which makes the conclusion harder to dismiss.

The 'ghost citation' problem

The usual fallback argument is brand exposure. Even if users don't click, the reasoning goes, they at least see your name next to an authoritative answer. That defense has its own problem.

An analysis by Semrush and Kevin Indig of 3,981 domain appearances found that 62% were what they call "ghost citations" 2. In these cases the AI engine used a page as a source but never named the brand 2. In those instances the publisher supplied the information and got neither the click nor the recognition.

This cuts to the core of generative engine optimization (GEO) as it is commonly practiced. If the end goal is a citation, and most citations deliver neither traffic nor brand awareness, then the citation is a precondition at best 2. It is necessary for being part of the answer, but far from enough to justify the effort on its own terms 2.

What this means for publishers and marketers

The practical takeaway, in my reading, is not to abandon AI Overview visibility. It is to stop treating it as a traffic channel. A citation that behaves like a mid-page organic link 1, inside a feature that cuts outbound clicks by roughly two-fifths 2, is better treated as an awareness and credibility play. Teams should measure and budget for it accordingly.

Several adjustments follow from that framing. These are analysis, not prescriptions drawn from the studies:

• Reset reporting. Counting citations as wins without tracking whether they bring clicks or brand mentions will inflate perceived performance, especially given the share of unnamed citations 2.
• Prioritize queries where clicks still happen. Organic results outperform AI citations on click-through 1. So it makes sense to keep investing in content that answers needs a summary can't fully satisfy: tools, data, comparisons, transactions, and depth.
• Make brand attribution harder to drop. If engines routinely use content without naming its owner 2, distinctive proprietary material is more likely to carry the source's identity into the answer. That includes original research, named frameworks, and first-party data.
• Diversify away from Google dependency. A 34.5% rise in zero-click searches 2 is a structural shift, not a temporary dip. Direct audiences such as newsletters, communities, and apps become more valuable as search referrals thin out.

The bigger picture

Google has framed AI Overviews as a way to connect people with the web. The early data suggests the feature mostly keeps them on Google. Visibility is real, but it is increasingly decoupled from the click, and often from the brand name too 12. For anyone whose business depends on search traffic, a citation should be read as a signal of relevance, not a stand-in for the referral it appears to replace.