Robotaxi Expansion: Waymo Hits 15 Cities as Rules Lag Behind

Driverless vehicles are now running at scale, ahead of federal rules

For most of the past decade, the autonomous vehicle industry sold a story about the future. This autumn it has mostly been reporting operating numbers. Waymo is adding cities and raising money at a pace that would have seemed reckless two years ago. Tesla's Cybercab fleet in Austin grew roughly eightfold in a month. Driverless trucks won a federal exemption their developers had spent years seeking. Meanwhile, regulators are still drafting the basic test of what makes a self-driving system "safe enough."

The gap between deployment and federal rules is the most important part of the story. The companies are scaling now, and the federal standards meant to govern them may not be enforceable until the end of the decade.

Waymo goes from proving the product to filling the map

On October 14, Waymo opened its fully driverless service to the general public in San Antonio, San Diego and Tampa on the same day. That ended the invitation-only phase in those cities, and the launch included service at San Antonio International Airport.6 The cities had been opened to riders in stages: San Antonio took its first public passengers in February, and San Diego and Tampa followed on September 1.6 Denver launched alongside them in September, and Las Vegas followed on September 14.2

Counts of the network's size differ slightly, mostly because of timing. One report from mid-September put Waymo at 14 cities with paid driverless rides after the September 1 launches.7 Later coverage, which includes Las Vegas, says 15.23 Ridership is a bigger uncertainty. Waymo was completing more than 500,000 paid trips a week by early September, but it has not disclosed a much higher figure since the spring. That makes it hard to tell how much the new cities are adding.2 Its stated goal is 1 million paid rides a week across 20 cities by the end of 2026.2 My view is that Waymo can reach the city count, but the ride target will be hard to hit by December.

The money is in place. Waymo has taken a $5 billion term loan from lenders led by PIMCO, Blackstone and Sixth Street. It is the company's first debt financing and follows a $16 billion equity round.2 Choosing debt suggests lenders now see robotaxi fleets as assets they can finance, not just research projects. Losses are still heavy, though: Waymo lost $2.1 billion in the first quarter of 2026.2

Texas is where the growth is easiest to measure. State registration data show Waymo's Texas fleet grew 49% in about three weeks, reaching 1,102 vehicles by September 24.13 Much of that came from Ojai, a purpose-built minivan on the Zeekr RT platform that carries Waymo's sixth-generation driving system.8 The research firm MoffettNathanson expects Waymo to import 5,100 Ojai vehicles into the U.S. by year-end, even though tariffs make the Chinese-built platform more expensive.13 Abroad, Waymo has agreed with Nihon Kotsu and GO to prepare a driverless Tokyo service for 2027, subject to approvals. It is also targeting Munich for late 2027 and Singapore for 2028.9

Competition is also growing. Amazon's Zoox is expanding into Houston and returning to San Diego, but in most of its locations it is still waiting for permission to charge fares.7

Tesla scales Cybercab under federal scrutiny

Tesla's robotaxi effort is growing fast and facing more regulatory pressure at the same time. The company says it now runs more than 300 Cybercabs in Austin, an eightfold increase in 30 days. Texas registration data show 319 Cybercabs, while the Model Y robotaxi fleet has stayed flat at 420.29 CNBC described the Cybercab's first month as rocky. Its report says expanding beyond Austin will be the harder test, both technically and with regulators.20

Regulators are paying close attention. Two days after Waymo's September 1 launches, NHTSA opened Audit Query AQ26002 into the Cybercab during the same week the vehicle started carrying paying passengers.7 Tesla got an extension on a September 30 deadline to answer the agency's safety questions.20 On October 9, NHTSA also opened defect petition DP26010. It covers about 1,000 Model Y and Cybercab robotaxis, following a petition alleging they speed through active school zones while the automated system is engaged.26 Tesla also faces an Engineering Analysis covering about 3.2 million vehicles over whether FSD detects reduced visibility.26 Public opinion is a further risk: in one September survey, 70% of respondents said Tesla should pause rides after hearing about the Cybercab investigation.20

Tesla's software keeps shipping. FSD (Supervised) v14.3.12 began a wide rollout on October 13, bundled with a Halloween-themed update. Its release notes list better handling of emergency vehicles, school buses and small animals.25 The update also adds robotaxi-style arrival options, letting owners choose drop-offs at a parking lot, street, driveway or pull-over spot.21 Tesla says the model is now unified across Smart Summon, FSD and Robotaxi.28

The larger promise is still pending. Tesla AI executive Ashok Elluswamy has said FSD v15, which grows the network from about 1 billion to about 10 billion parameters, will reach robotaxis this month and allow 24/7 service.23 Real progress has been slower. On October 3, Tesla extended Austin service from 10 p.m. to 11 p.m., and Elon Musk said the main nighttime problem is avoiding pets that are hard to see in the dark.30 The service closed at midnight when it launched in June 2025, so the new hours are still shorter than the original schedule.30 Tesla is also less driverless than its marketing implies. Only part of each metro fleet runs without a safety monitor, and every car in the Bay Area has a safety driver under California rules.24

Driverless trucks clear a key regulatory obstacle

The trucking industry's most important recent development was regulatory. The FMCSA granted a five-year exemption, effective October 7, 2026 and running to October 7, 2031. It lets Level 4 trucks use cab-mounted warning beacons instead of reflective triangles that a driver would normally place on the road.3933 Without a driver on board, nobody could meet that requirement. Aurora had previously been denied and appealed to the D.C. Circuit before the relief came.35

Coverage of how far the leaders have progressed is less consistent. One report says Aurora has 20 fully driverless trucks and targets nearly 200 by year-end, with more than 250,000 driverless miles since May 2025.40 Other accounts put its driverless mileage at 500,000.3136 Reports also disagree on who will build Aurora's future trucks: one names Roush as the upfitting partner, while another attributes the planned 1,000-truck annual volume to Volvo.3136 Since the reports disagree on these figures, Aurora's October 28 earnings report is the place to check.39 The underlying economics have not changed. Aurora posted about $2 million in second-quarter revenue against a net loss of roughly $270 million.40

Kodiak is taking a different approach. It has 35 customer-owned driverless trucks hauling fracking sand in the Permian Basin.34 It has also started a 435-mile Dallas–Laredo freight lane with Charger USA, though those trucks still carry a safety driver.38 Kodiak's internal readiness score reached 96% at the end of September, and the company says driverless long-haul service will start by year-end.38 Texas freight corridors are becoming crowded: Aurora has signed Charger for the same Laredo lane, and Volvo and Waabi are hauling freight between Dallas and Houston.38

Federal standards are years away

Washington says it wants to replace the state-by-state patchwork with a national standard. NHTSA has signed a three-year, $5 million cooperative agreement with SAE International for a consortium meant to inform the first federal performance standard for automated driving systems.13 Coverage spells the consortium's name differently, as A2SCEND or ASCEND, but describes the same goal.1315 Outside analysts expect an enforceable rule no earlier than 2030.13 The Transportation Department's new national AV strategy covers fiscal 2026 through 2030 and also promises updated rules for trucks equipped with automated driving systems.16

Until those rules arrive, regulation mostly happens through exemptions. NHTSA has proposed letting Zoox deploy up to 2,500 vehicles a year for two years.11 The pending Self Drive Act would raise the exemption cap to 90,000 vehicles per automaker.13 At the state level, at least 26 states allow driverless operation under certain conditions, while New York permits testing only and offers no route to driverless service.14

The overall picture is that the industry is scaling faster than federal rules are being written. For now, NHTSA oversees it mainly through investigations rather than standards set in advance. That arrangement helps Waymo, which has a long safety record, and puts the most pressure on Tesla, which is expanding while under federal investigation.