Qatar LNG Exports Plunge 96% as Iran War Lifts Global Gas Prices

A gas superpower that has almost stopped exporting

The Iran war is hurting energy markets in many ways, but Qatar has taken one of the hardest hits. Six months into the US-Iran conflict, the world's second-largest LNG exporter has shipped only 18 cargoes. In the same period a year earlier it shipped 509. That is a drop of about 96%, according to Reuters calculations based on ICIS data.1 Reuters puts the lost gas sales at roughly $24 billion.1 Using 2025 figures, that equals about five months of national income.34

Coverage across outlets agrees on the basic story. Before the war, Qatar supplied around one-fifth of the world's daily LNG.27 Neighbouring oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait also lost exports, but far less. They have managed to move some barrels out through the Strait of Hormuz, while Qatar has not.4 Two Qatari tankers have been attacked.47 Qatar also has very few pipelines or bypass routes that could get its gas to market another way.6

The 96% figure was reported in late August, but more recent data shows little improvement. Qatar's exports rose in September to 1.6 million tonnes, the highest since the war began. That was still less than a quarter of the pre-war average, according to Kpler.10 October shipments are on track to fall back to about 0.6 million tonnes, which Kpler links to a rise in attacks on ships.910

The terminal problem: Ras Laffan is blocked in and damaged

Qatar's problem has two layers, and they do not have the same fix. The first is the export route. QatarEnergy shut down most of the Ras Laffan complex soon after fighting started and Hormuz closed.8 It declared force majeure on its contracts once tankers could no longer leave the Gulf.13 Satellite analysis reported in early March suggested the plant had not been damaged before that shutdown. The closure came from blocked shipping, not from strikes.12

The second layer is physical damage. On 18 March, Iranian missiles hit the idle Ras Laffan complex and cut Qatar's LNG production capacity by about 17%.1213 Reports describe the damage slightly differently. One analysis says two of the 14 liquefaction trains were destroyed, removing about 12.8 million tonnes a year for an expected three to five years.11 Another puts repairs at four to five years.19 QatarEnergy's own estimate is about $20 billion a year in lost revenue and up to five years of repairs. It has declared force majeure of up to five years on some long-term contracts.1

The two layers matter differently for prices. A diplomatic deal could reopen the strait. It cannot rebuild trains. One market analysis describes the closure as cyclical and the damage to Ras Laffan as structural, meaning even good news has a limit.11 Our reading is that this is the right way to see it. Even in the best case, Qatar comes back smaller than it was.

Why LNG has not recovered like oil

The oil market has partly recovered. Middle East crude shipments through Hormuz reached about 16 million barrels a day in September, around 80% of pre-war levels, with producers increasingly relying on US Navy support.8 LNG traffic, meanwhile, has barely moved.9

Reuters columnist Ron Bousso says this comes down to how the two industries work.10

• Oil is flexible. It has plenty of storage and shipping options and can restart quickly.
• LNG is tightly linked and capital-heavy. Gas from the offshore North Field, which Qatar shares with Iran, has been produced at minimal rates. That is enough for domestic needs and a trickle of exports.8
• Condensate storage is a bottleneck. Raising gas output also produces condensate, a light oil that must be shipped out. If those shipments are unreliable, storage fills up and gas production has to be cut whatever the LNG demand.8
• Carriers are scarce. Qatar has little room to store LNG onshore or at sea. The global LNG carrier fleet is much smaller than the oil tanker fleet, so owners are reluctant to risk expensive ships getting trapped or hit inside the Gulf.810

Bousso's conclusion is that Qatar needs more than occasional safe passage. It needs confidence that every ship can transit safely.8 QatarEnergy has said it could restart production within weeks once Hormuz reopens, but Bousso warns importers against expecting a quick return to normal.10

Shipping data disagree

Trackers report very different numbers for Hormuz LNG traffic, and readers should treat any single figure with caution. S&P Global said no LNG vessel had transited Hormuz since 12 July.11 Kpler counted 20 LNG tankers crossing in September as of the 23rd. Ten were linked to QatarEnergy and ten to ADNOC, compared with no QatarEnergy-linked transits in August.15 Another report said three Qatari cargoes from Ras Laffan had appeared outside the strait in a single week. Before the war, about three cargoes left the strait every day.14

Much of the gap comes from ships sailing 'dark', with tracking systems switched off. Most LNG carriers now cross Hormuz this way, which makes flows hard to estimate.14 Kpler also notes ongoing dark loadings at Ras Laffan and the UAE's Das Island plant.15 Some apparent recovery is also misleading. About a third of Qatar's September exports went to Kuwait, so they never left the Gulf.10 In one September week, a rise in Qatari loadings came entirely from Kuwait taking two cargoes inside the Gulf.17 Overall, the data points to a small trickle of exports, not a recovery.

Gas prices: a premium that won't go away

The price effects are clear. Even before the March strikes, Asian spot LNG had more than doubled to a three-year high of $25.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on 4 March, when QatarEnergy declared force majeure at Ras Laffan.13 After the strikes, Asian spot prices rose more than 140%.12 By September, gas prices in Asia and Europe had reached their highest since the 2022-2023 energy crisis, as buyers competed for supply that does not need to pass through Hormuz.14

Recent figures:

• Europe: The Dutch TTF benchmark traded around €83 per megawatt-hour on 12 October, up about 164% from a year earlier.18
• Asia: Spot LNG has risen above $26/MMBtu and has been priced higher than Europe, pulling cargoes east.20
• United States: Henry Hub sits near $3/MMBtu.19 The US Energy Information Administration has noted a sharply wider gap between US prices and import prices in Europe and Asia.11

Prices also react quickly to diplomacy. When US and Iranian officials held talks alongside the UN General Assembly in late September, Asian LNG fell from $27.23 to $25.73/MMBtu as part of the risk premium unwound.15 Kpler warned that the premium could return quickly if the talks stalled.15 European prices dipped below €78 after President Trump said the US would not resume strikes on Iran before November's midterm elections. More tanker attacks in the strait then raised fresh concerns.18 Our reading is that prices are being driven by headlines, with a high floor set by the lost Qatari supply.

Europe's storage gap and America's gain

Europe is in the weakest position. Its gas storage has fallen to a historic low for the time of year.34 One analysis calls it the lowest since 2013, well below the EU's 90% target.11 Goldman Sachs has said European prices may need to rise by December to attract enough cargoes if Asian spot prices stay high.1 Without most of its contracted Qatari volumes, Europe has started losing the bidding contest with Asia for spot LNG.1

The United States gains the most. US LNG exports are expected to rise about 14% in 2026 to 123 million tonnes.9 Kpler is also tracking the ramp-up of the Golden Pass train 1 export plant.15 The benefit has a domestic cost: US residential gas costs are up about 14% year on year, and some lawmakers are questioning export volumes ahead of the midterms.19 High LNG prices are also pushing buyers toward coal, which is roughly 80% cheaper. Global coal demand could hit a record in 2026.20

The cost to Doha

Qatar's finances are under pressure. The IMF expects its economy to shrink 8.6% this year, the steepest decline in the Gulf.2 Before the war, it was forecast to grow 6.1%.9 The government has cut department budgets by up to 30% and overseas aid by about 85%.5 It can draw on the $500 billion Qatar Investment Authority, but officials are reported to be considering deeper cuts if the crisis continues.2 QatarEnergy has also taken a $3 billion loan from Chinese banks.1

The longer-term stakes are the biggest of all. Qatar is partway through an expansion meant to raise LNG capacity to 142 million tonnes a year by 2030, about a quarter of the global market.9 Bousso warns that new capacity is worth little while the export route is uncertain. Without a lasting agreement on Hormuz involving Iran, the US and regional powers, the world's largest LNG expansion could be stuck.8 The International Energy Agency based its outlook on Hormuz reopening in the third quarter. That quarter has ended and the strait is still closed.11

Our reading is that the 96% drop is not a one-off shock that will reverse on its own. The global gas market is losing a large share of its supply, and higher, more volatile prices are likely to last until there is a durable deal on Hormuz and Ras Laffan is repaired.