Ridgefield Gas Prices Hit $4.51 as Connecticut Stays Above US Average

Connecticut gas prices: what happened

Drivers in Ridgefield are paying more for gas than most of Connecticut, and Connecticut is paying more than most of the country. Ridgefield's reporting stations averaged $4.51 a gallon for regular in the week of October 6. That was about 6 cents above the AAA state average of $4.45 and about 16 cents above the national average of $4.35 reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).1 The town figure rests on only two stations: a Shell on Danbury Road at $4.43 and the Stateline Exxon on South Salem Road at $4.59. Several other stations in town had no current price report.1

The headline about "rising" prices needs some context. Over the most recent week, Connecticut's average actually fell about 4 cents, from $4.49. Over a month it climbed about 13 cents from $4.32. Compared with a year ago, when the state averaged $3.12, drivers are paying roughly $1.33 more per gallon.1 So the rise is real over months and years, but the short-term trend has turned flat to slightly lower. The more important story is that prices have stayed high for a long time.

Why the Connecticut and national averages differ

Figures for Connecticut's gap with the national average vary depending on the data source and the date. On September 21, AAA put the state average near $4.50, only 3 cents above the national figure, which made Connecticut the 15th most expensive state.14 In early October, the gap measured against the EIA's weekly national number was closer to 10 cents.1 AAA's daily figures for October 11 showed Connecticut at about $4.41 against a national average of about $4.36, a gap of roughly 5 cents.11

Part of the difference is method. The EIA does not track Connecticut separately. It folds the state into a New England region, which averaged $4.34 as of October 5.1 Rankings agree on the general picture. One analysis of AAA data put Connecticut 16th highest on October 6, about 1.9% above the national average.15 Another put the state 35th from the cheapest on October 2, at $4.46.12 Connecticut is consistently above the middle of the pack, but nowhere near the West Coast states that lead the country.

Prices also vary a lot within the state. On October 6, stations in Durham averaged $4.65, while Norwich matched the state average at $4.45.218 A mid-September snapshot put Lower Fairfield County at $4.50 and New Haven-Meriden at $4.41.5 Ridgefield sits near the New York line, and its prices fit the pattern of southwestern Connecticut paying more.

Crude oil prices drive the national picture

The broader trend comes from the crude market, which has been affected by war. AAA said on October 8 that pump prices were at record highs for autumn. It said this is the first year the national average has stayed above $4 a gallon into October, and that crude had climbed back above $90 a barrel after briefly falling into the $80s. Even so, the same AAA update showed U.S. crude inventories about 1% above the five-year average after a 3.2-million-barrel weekly draw. That suggests the main pressure is geopolitical risk rather than a shortage of oil in U.S. storage.

The week of October 5 showed how quickly that risk can move prices. Brent jumped about 5% to above $105 a barrel on October 8. Attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the approach of Hurricane Isaias toward U.S. offshore production drove the move.27 Prices fell back the next morning after President Trump said he would not attack Iran ahead of the November midterm elections, and after China moved to resume refined fuel exports.24 Still, both benchmarks settled higher Friday: Brent at $104.72 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $91.85. Producers had shut more than 70% of U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude output ahead of the storm.23

Monday brought another swing. Crude first fell after Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine. It then rebounded when Ukraine's president said Moscow had already broken it, pushing WTI to around $93 and Brent to around $106. Both benchmarks reached their highest levels in more than two weeks, and higher tanker shipping costs added to the overall cost of oil. Fortune's tracking put Brent about 61% above its level a year earlier.26

Crude is the largest single cost in a gallon of gasoline, and pump prices usually follow crude with a lag of one to two weeks.16 That lag explains why Connecticut's slight weekly dip may not last. The early-October dip in pump prices reflected crude's brief fall into the $80s. The rebound above $90 has not yet reached station signs.

Natural gas prices and the heating season

Natural gas is a separate market from gasoline, but it moved the same week for some of the same reasons. U.S. natural gas futures rose about 6.1% for the week, from $3.035 to $3.220 per million British thermal units. Isaias was the main factor, as offshore platforms were evacuated.22 Reports differ slightly on how much gas production was shut in: one market report said about 1.3 billion cubic feet per day, while a Reuters-based account said about 1.1 billion.2224 The Henry Hub benchmark stood at about $3.16 on October 12.21

Compared with crude, natural gas looks fairly calm. A price around $3 is far less dramatic than oil sitting above $100 on the Brent benchmark. For Ridgefield households, though, natural gas is not the main heating concern. About 61% of homes in town heat with oil, compared with about 16% that use natural gas.4 Delivered heating oil was listed at $5.75 to $6.19 a gallon in late September.4 Because heating oil is a crude product closely related to diesel, Ridgefield's heating bills will likely follow Brent and WTI more than Henry Hub this winter. In this town, the oil shock is likely to hit home heating bills as well as gas tanks.

Diesel shows how hard that hit could be. Connecticut diesel averaged about $6.45 a gallon in recent AAA data.711 Nationally, diesel prices have risen about 72% over the past year, while gasoline is up about 39%.15

How long prices could stay high

Connecticut's regular gas average first passed $4 on April 15. It peaked at $4.62 on May 12, still below the state's all-time record of $4.98 set in June 2022.8 Unless prices fall sharply, the state will soon reach six straight months above $4.8 Chris Herb, president of the Connecticut Energy Marketers Association, said the recent easing came from the switch to cheaper winter-blend fuel and the end of the summer driving season. He argued that a real return toward $4 depends on a permanent end to the conflict with Iran and on repairing damaged refineries.8 He also warned that, without a major change, prices are likely to start rising again.8

The reporting largely supports his view. The seasonal factors that usually help in autumn are already reflected in prices. Meanwhile, the forces pushing prices up, including shipping attacks, tanker costs, hurricane shutdowns and an uncertain diplomatic situation, are still active.22

Political pressure over the gas tax

High prices have become an election issue. Connecticut Republicans are calling for a suspension of the state gas tax. State Sen. Paul Cicarella estimated it would cost about $80 million to $90 million in regular gasoline revenue through the end of the year, plus roughly $30 million to $35 million for diesel.7 His argument is that the extra revenue only exists because prices are so high.7 The proposal comes ahead of the November 3 election, in which Gov. Ned Lamont faces Republican state Sen. Ryan Fazio.14

A tax holiday would give drivers clear relief at the pump. But it would not change the factors that are actually moving prices: Brent's reaction to news from the Persian Gulf and a Gulf of Mexico production base exposed to storms.

Bottom line

The slight weekly dip in Connecticut is less important than the bigger picture. The state is still a few cents to about a dime above a national average that is itself at a record for this time of year. Prices in Ridgefield run higher still, though that figure is based on only two stations.1 Crude has climbed back above $90, and pump prices usually follow crude within a week or two. The likeliest outcome is that prices stay high or rise again, not that relief is on the way.16 Ridgefield's reliance on heating oil means the same crude prices will also show up in winter heating bills.