OpenAI $30B Round Valuation Cut From $1.4T to $1.25T

A trillion-dollar raise loses some altitude

OpenAI's latest private fundraise started as proof of how much investors want AI. A month later, it shows where that demand runs out.

The round first surfaced on September 29, when Bloomberg reported that OpenAI was talking with investors about raising at least $30 billion at a valuation of about $1.4 trillion.29 Reuters' summary of that report said the talks were at an early stage, that terms could change and that investors were driving the demand.9 It also said the money would act as a bridge, giving OpenAI capital in place of an IPO.9 Sam Altman had already said OpenAI would not go public in 2026, and he cited AI safety concerns.9

That $1.4 trillion figure has since fallen. On October 22, CNBC reported that OpenAI was close to a round of up to $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion pre-money valuation. According to that report, OpenAI told prospective investors it wanted commitments by the end of the following week.16 The Financial Times added detail. It reported an October 30 deadline for commitments and said OpenAI could take less than $30 billion if demand falls short. Coatue and funds from the United Arab Emirates have discussed leading the round.10 The FT also said Morgan Stanley and Dragoneer pitched the deal to private wealth clients at the higher price and found weaker demand than in earlier OpenAI raises. One source called it "a bit of a thud."10

If OpenAI raises the full $30 billion at $1.25 trillion pre-money, it would be valued at about $1.28 trillion after the deal.20 That is still a huge number. The story is the direction it moved, and how quickly.

The step-up math, and why the denominator matters

OpenAI's last private price was $852 billion, set in March when it raised a record $122 billion.37 That round included a commitment of up to $50 billion from Amazon.4 Investors in the March deal included SoftBank, Andreessen Horowitz, MGX and Coatue.16 Reports describe the earlier round slightly differently. Calcalist called it a $110 billion raise at a $730 billion pre-money valuation in February.8 Most other coverage uses $122 billion and an $852 billion post-money valuation.39 The two accounts mostly fit together, since $730 billion plus $122 billion equals $852 billion.

At $1.4 trillion, the new round would have marked up the company by about 64% in roughly seven months.57 At $1.25 trillion, the markup is closer to 50%.10 Bloomberg-based reporting says OpenAI's price has moved from $300 billion to $852 billion to the current target in about 18 months.5 It also says Bloomberg had earlier reported a $1.2 trillion target before the number rose during talks.5 Read together, the reports suggest the price went up, then came back down toward where talks started.

The revenue figures behind the pitch are less consistent than the valuations. Coverage of TechCrunch's report put annualized revenue at $40 billion in August.1 On September 29, Reuters reported that the run rate was nearing $70 billion.89 By October 19, Reuters said OpenAI was telling investors that annualized revenue had hit $50 billion after the GPT-6 Astra launch and should reach $70 billion by year-end.47 These numbers are hard to reconcile. One likely explanation is that "nearing $70 billion" described a year-end goal more than a current figure. Either way, the multiple changes a lot depending on which number you use. At $1.4 trillion, OpenAI would be valued at about 28 times $50 billion in run-rate revenue, or about 20 times if it reaches $70 billion.7

Anthropic is the real counterparty

Nearly every report frames this round around Anthropic, and that is the right way to read it. Reuters reported that OpenAI sped up the raise to lock in commitments before Anthropic's expected mid-November IPO.57 OpenAI met long-only funds and sovereign wealth funds the same week Anthropic held its investor day.45 SoftBank and Abu Dhabi's MGX were reported to be in talks to join.3 OpenAI and SoftBank declined to comment, and MGX did not immediately respond.5

The reasoning is simple. Reuters' sources said OpenAI wanted to close before Anthropic released more financial detail. Once that happens, investors would compare the two companies line by line and push OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar harder on growth.45 Edward Best of Willkie Farr & Gallagher, speaking hypothetically, said OpenAI might want to set its own valuation without worrying about a comparison. He called it "a two-horse race" to go public.7

Anthropic now has the higher valuation. Its $65 billion Series H in May valued it at $965 billion, above OpenAI's $852 billion for the first time.2824 Reports in September said its IPO could seek up to $100 billion at about $2 trillion.29 That target has since come down too. Some existing and prospective investors now argue for about $1.5 trillion after Anthropic reported $16.8 billion in third-quarter revenue. That was up 45% from the prior quarter, but monthly growth has slowed.47

The two companies also disagree about how to count revenue. OpenAI reports revenue net of partner revenue shares. It has accused Anthropic of booking the full value of contracts sold through cloud providers. Anthropic says it follows standard accounting practice.45 Until a public prospectus settles this, every revenue comparison between the two comes with a caveat.

The lower OpenAI price makes most sense in this light. The FT reported that some investors want to see where Anthropic's IPO prices before backing its rival.10 If public investors give the market leader a lower valuation than hoped, OpenAI's private buyers lose some of their basis for paying a big premium. OpenAI seems to have accepted a lower number to close before that happens, which suggests it values a firm commitment over the headline price.

A cooler market around it

Timing is part of the problem. Since September, oil price swings, rising bond yields and AI safety worries have weighed on tech stocks. Investors are also looking harder at the data center financing behind the AI buildout.4 CoreWeave's shares and debt fell sharply after investors focused on nearly $50 billion in borrowings.5 Reports also describe a $1.6 trillion drop in semiconductor market value.5 Investors told Reuters that OpenAI needs the money for its infrastructure commitments. It would also give the company a cushion if weak IPO markets push its planned 2027 listing back further.57 The FT said that listing could come in the first half of 2027, though no date has been set.10

The new round is mostly a balance-sheet decision. With a confidential filing already made, according to reporting on its June submission, OpenAI is buying time and flexibility.22

Below the frontier, venture is still running hot

Outside the two frontier labs, AI venture activity still looks strong, though the dollars are concentrated. AI startups raised about $2.39 billion across 14 rounds of $20 million or more in the week to October 12.11 They raised about $2.42 billion across 19 rounds the following week.14 TypeSafe AI's $870 million Series A, led by Andreessen Horowitz at a $7.5 billion valuation, was the largest deal of the month.11 One tracker says the company was valued at about $200 million less than a month earlier.11 Modal Labs raised a $750 million Series D at $15.75 billion, led by Accel.14 Arena nearly doubled its valuation to $3.1 billion in about 10 months.11 Town reached unicorn status four months after launch with a $108 million Series B.19

Acquisitions are much smaller. The biggest disclosed AI deals in recent weeks were Rocket Software's purchase of Geniez AI, estimated at up to $100 million, and Salesforce's pending deal for Loops, estimated at about $30 million.14

The gap in scale is large. One tracker counted $5.47 billion across 41 AI-related rounds in the first half of October.13 OpenAI's single round would be several times that.

The read

The drop from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion is not a collapse. It does show that private-market pricing for frontier AI now depends on what public markets will pay. The FT's report of weaker wealth-channel demand, together with the cut in Anthropic's IPO expectations, points to investors starting to negotiate on price rather than simply accepting it.104

The next tests come soon. One is whether OpenAI fills the round by its October 30 deadline.10 The other is where Anthropic prices in November. Those two results will set valuation benchmarks for the rest of the AI market. For now, the most valuable AI companies can still raise money, but investors are pushing back on price and timing.