onsemi Q3 Earnings: Nov. 2 Report Faces Chip Selloff, $113 Oil

A modest bar set in a rough market

onsemi reports third-quarter results on November 2. In most quarters that would be a narrow event for one analog-chip company. This time the report arrives during a broad selloff in semiconductor stocks, with Brent crude at a five-month high and Bitcoin sliding along with other risk assets. The stock has fallen far from its highs, and the report will show whether investors have already priced in too much bad news or too little.

The expectations themselves are not demanding. Consensus earnings per share for the quarter sit around $0.87 to $0.88, compared with $0.63 a year ago2130. Barchart's preview puts that at a 38.1% increase, and notes that onsemi has beaten Wall Street's EPS estimates in each of its last four quarters30. KeyCorp analyst J. Vinh goes further, forecasting $0.93. That is the top of the company's own guidance range of $0.81 to $0.93, and he also projects $3.35 for fiscal 2026 and $4.82 for fiscal 202726.

Outlets disagree on some of the details, so readers should be careful with the numbers. MarketBeat-syndicated coverage says results come after the market close2327, while TipRanks lists the release as during market hours21. One forecasting service describes the company's Q3 guidance as revenue of $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion and diluted EPS of $0.79 to $0.9128, which differs slightly from the $0.81 to $0.93 range cited elsewhere22. A likely explanation is the difference between GAAP and adjusted earnings. That would also explain why one data provider records second-quarter EPS of $0.5825 while most coverage cites $0.7422. Whatever the cause, the company's own figures on November 2 will settle the question.

What the last quarter showed

In its August 3 report, onsemi posted adjusted EPS of $0.74 against a $0.72 consensus. Revenue was $1.60 billion, slightly above the $1.59 billion expected and up 9.2% from a year earlier22. Net margin was 10.17% and return on equity was 14.06%26. Those are respectable numbers, but they don't describe a company in a boom. Trailing twelve-month net income reached about $630 million, up roughly 44% year over year25. That growth looks less impressive next to a semiconductor-industry earnings growth rate that one tracker puts at about 150%25.

That gap is the core problem for onsemi. The AI-driven chip rally has favored companies selling accelerators, memory and data-center equipment. onsemi makes power and analog semiconductors, and most of its business comes from automotive and industrial customers22. Analysts are looking at the same demand questions: previews say investors will focus on automotive and industrial demand, margins, silicon-carbide adoption and forward guidance27. Some of the commentary is more upbeat. Susquehanna's Christopher Rolland has pointed to tighter supply, firmer pricing and improving automotive and industrial demand27. One forecasting narrative also links onsemi's upside to AI data-center power demand28.

Where analysts stand

Analysts are close to evenly split. MarketBeat counts one Strong Buy, fourteen Buys and sixteen Holds, for a "Moderate Buy" consensus and an average target of about $94.7622. StoneX has started coverage with a buy rating22. The most notable recent move went the other way: TD Cowen cut its target to $75 from $95 and now rates the stock Hold22. In July the firm had a buy rating with a $95 target23, so in practice this is a downgrade, and $75 sits close to where the stock trades now.

The chart is weak. The stock opened at $72.02 on October 19, well below its 50-day moving average of $75.52 and its 200-day average of $90.082322. Its 52-week range runs from $44.56 to $134.9222. With a beta of 2.05 and a P/E in the high 40s29, the shares tend to amplify moves in the wider market. MarketBeat's own sentiment summary says the combination of a high multiple and a weak chart leaves the stock exposed to any sign of soft demand, margin pressure or cautious guidance23. An insider sold 15,578 shares at $80 on October 1, a price the stock has since fallen below22.

My reading: the November 2 EPS number is unlikely to move the stock much, since the bar is close to the top of guidance and the company has a steady record of small beats. The fourth-quarter outlook will decide the reaction. In the current market, a beat with in-line guidance has been getting punished.

The chip selloff

That pattern was clear this week. In the week ending October 16, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 11.4%, its worst week since March 2025. It dropped for eight straight sessions and lost about $2 trillion in market value4. One count puts the cumulative decline near 15.7%, the longest losing streak since October 20086. Reuters attributed the selloff to hot inflation raising the odds of Fed rate hikes and to doubts about whether heavy AI spending will pay off4. Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data showed hedge funds cut technology exposure by the most since the bank began tracking it in 2016, with semiconductors the most-sold sub-sector6.

The bounce on Monday, October 19 included onsemi, which rose 3% in premarket trading along with Texas Instruments and Analog Devices4. Reuters credited lower Treasury yields and easing crude prices48. The relief didn't last. On Thursday, October 22, Lam Research fell nearly 9% after issuing guidance that only matched consensus, the iShares Semiconductor ETF dropped more than 3%5, and the Nasdaq had its worst day since June, down more than 2%16. AMD fell more than 8%, Micron about 6% and Nvidia about 4%. Meta dropped roughly 7% even though it beat revenue estimates and gave upbeat guidance7.

Coverage of these moves points the same way. Deutsche Bank analysts said investors used to big beats and raises wanted more than Lam delivered5. That is a meaningful warning for onsemi: in this market, meeting expectations has not been enough. Not everyone is bearish. Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson has told clients to get ready to add risk, whether the correction ends quickly or runs into November6.

Oil adds an inflation risk

The second pressure on the market is oil. Brent rose 4% on Thursday to settle at $113.17, its highest close since May 4, and WTI finished at $99.4716. The trigger was a New York Times report that the U.S. and Israel have plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. President Trump said Washington is not negotiating with Tehran and that something would happen "fairly soon"16. A Houthi drone strike near Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field, which produces about one million barrels a day, killed two people without disrupting operations18. A separate attack hit the airport in Dammam19.

The main disagreement in the energy coverage is about how much of the rally reflects real supply loss. ING strategists say Gulf crude flows have held up and that prices reflect expected disruption more than actual losses14. Kpler data cited by the Guardian show Persian Gulf exports above prewar levels, helped by pipelines that bypass Hormuz19. Others put more weight on risks that don't show up in flow data: the October 5 strike that reportedly halted Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline18 and global inventories about 509 million barrels below pre-conflict levels15. I think the risk-premium explanation is more convincing for now, but a Brent move above $115 would likely bring inflation fears back into stock and bond pricing12.

This matters for onsemi in two ways. Higher oil feeds the inflation and rate-hike worries that started the chip selloff4, and the Fed meets October 289. Expensive fuel could help electric-vehicle demand, which analysts raised in connection with Tesla9. That is a possible long-term support for onsemi's automotive power business, but no one in the current coverage has shown it is moving orders yet.

Bitcoin is trading like a tech stock

Crypto moved with tech. Bitcoin hit about $84,800 late Wednesday and then dropped more than $2,000 within hours, as Tesla and Lam weighed on risk appetite37. By Thursday afternoon it was trading near $81,500, down about 2.5% over 24 hours34. Fortune put the price roughly $25,900 below its level a year earlier38. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew more than $1.08 billion in inflows over three days, though37, and Bitcoin's share of total crypto market value climbed above 59% as smaller tokens fell harder33. Analysts are watching $80,500 to $81,500 as support35. Bitcoin is not acting as a hedge here: it is falling along with AI stocks.

Bottom line

onsemi's report will be judged against a market that is rethinking its AI bets, paying more for oil and heading into a Fed meeting. A small earnings beat is probably already priced in. What could move the stock is evidence that pricing and auto and industrial demand are firming, plus fourth-quarter guidance that supports KeyCorp's growth forecasts. Without that, the TD Cowen downgrade and Lam's selloff on in-line guidance suggest the shares could fall further.