Nvidia Earnings Sympathy Trade: AMD Leads, Pfizer Moves Opposite

The ripple effect, measured

Nvidia's quarterly report has become a market-wide event. Traders now position around it the way they once positioned around a Federal Reserve meeting. Ahead of the chipmaker's late-August results, CNBC Pro screened earnings-reaction days back to 2016 to find which stocks reliably move with Nvidia and which move against it.1 The screen tracked three measures: correlation with Nvidia, beta to Nvidia's move, and how often a stock closed in the same direction on the session after the report.1

The sympathy group looks the way you would expect. Advanced Micro Devices showed the tightest link, with a 0.75 correlation, a 0.28 beta, and same-direction moves on close to 70% of reaction days.1 Vertiv, which supplies power and cooling gear to data centers, came next at a 0.67 correlation, although its record covers only 32 reactions.1 Onto Innovation, Marvell and Monolithic Power followed. Marvell matched Nvidia's direction 71% of the time, the best hit rate among the larger names.1 Micron, Broadcom, Synopsys and Cadence also qualified.1

The inverse group is the more interesting finding. Pfizer had a negative 0.61 correlation and moved with Nvidia on only 38% of reaction days.1 McDonald's diverged even more sharply, with a negative 0.56 correlation and a same-direction rate of just 17%.1 Verizon, Philip Morris, Amgen, Johnson & Johnson and gold miner Newmont rounded out the list.1 CNBC was careful to say that Nvidia's numbers probably do not drive these stocks directly. A more likely explanation is rotation: money flows toward growth and AI when Nvidia lands well, and back toward defensive names when that enthusiasm fades.1

Different rulers, different rankings

The coverage agrees on which names belong in the Nvidia orbit. It disagrees on how hard they swing, and the reason is that the outlets measure different things.

An earlier CNBC screen of the S&P 500 compared each stock's return above the index on Nvidia reaction days. It again found AMD near the top, with each 1% Nvidia move linked to about 0.28 points of excess return.2 That study widened the list to include optics names Coherent and Lumentum, equipment makers KLA and Lam Research, and two non-chip companies: data center contractor Comfort Systems and equipment renter United Rentals.2 Super Micro Computer showed the highest sensitivity of any stock, but it moved less consistently than the large chipmakers.2

Investing.com ranked names by one-year beta to the broad market instead. On that basis Super Micro scored 3.01, Broadcom 2.78, Lam Research 2.44 and Arm 2.13. AMD came in at 1.87, much higher than its earnings-day figure in CNBC's screen.4 These numbers don't contradict each other. They answer different questions. CNBC's figures show how much of Nvidia's specific move carries over to peers. Investing.com's figures show how volatile those peers already are. Readers should treat the first as a guide to direction and the second as a guide to size.

TSMC is a useful example of where the measures part ways. Investing.com called TSMC the least reactive stock in its group, with a beta of 1.09, and argued that it trades on its own cycle even though it makes Nvidia's chips.4 Yet in July the influence ran the other way. TSMC beat estimates but raised its capital spending outlook, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell 3.7%. Nvidia and Broadcom dropped about 2% and 5% in sympathy, and Micron lost 6%.17 The takeaway is that Nvidia is not the only report that moves the AI complex. It is simply the most closely watched one.

When the pattern breaks

A stock's sensitivity to Nvidia does not guarantee it will rally after a strong Nvidia print. Coverage from 2025 recalled a session when Nvidia jumped more than 9% on earnings, while Super Micro rose as much as 11% during the day and then closed 3% lower.6 After a weak report in February 2025, the reaction ran the other way and got bigger: Super Micro lost 16%, Vistra 12%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 6%.6 UBS's trading desk found that Super Micro averaged moves of almost 12% in either direction over eight post-Nvidia sessions. AMD averaged 4.8% and Vertiv 4.5%.10

Company-specific stories can also outweigh the sympathy effect. Ahead of the August print, analysts described Micron as the name least exposed to weak Nvidia guidance, because much of its high-bandwidth memory capacity is already sold.5 Broadcom carries a heavier load of expectations: after it beat estimates in June, its shares fell 15% the next day.5 AMD is in an awkward spot. It trades as a stand-in for overall AI demand, but its Helios racks compete directly with Nvidia's Vera Rubin. Strong Rubin market-share comments from Nvidia could therefore hurt AMD rather than help it.5

The August print delivered

The August quarter played out the way the sympathy maps assume. Nvidia reported revenue of $96.2 billion, about $4 billion above expectations. The stock rose more than 9% the following session, adding over $400 billion in market value, and the Nasdaq gained about 1%.24 Revenue grew roughly 106% from a year earlier, against a consensus of $92.07 billion.20 The Kobeissi Letter said the move put Nvidia on course for the third-largest one-day gain in market value by any stock in history.28

The May report went differently, which is a reminder that a beat does not guarantee a rally. Nvidia posted $81.62 billion in revenue and guided to about $91 billion. It also announced an $80 billion buyback. Even so, the shares slipped about 1.5% after hours on worries about growth and competition.21

Bitcoin's borrowed beta

Crypto is the newest market to track the Nvidia sympathy trade, and the evidence is mixed. After the August beat, bitcoin climbed toward $81,000, moving back above $80,000 alongside the rally in equities.27 Analyst David Eng argued that a large block of sell orders above the price was thinning ahead of a $6.58 billion options expiry on Deribit.28 In November 2025, bitcoin rose back above $90,000 within hours of another strong Nvidia report, after a broad sell-off in crypto and tech.22 Analyst Jesse Colombo has argued that bitcoin acts more like a high-beta tech stock than digital gold, citing a 92% correlation with the Nasdaq.22

In May, the pattern failed. Bitcoin and ether fell after Nvidia's beat, and oil jumped on a Reuters report about Iran's enriched uranium, overwhelming any boost from the chipmaker.29 Before that report, market maker Wintermute had said Nvidia could decide whether bitcoin held support between $76,000 and $78,000. It warned that rally was built more on leverage than on spot buying, at a time when spot ETF outflows were running about $1 billion a week.30

The more dependable crypto link runs through mining stocks, not the token. Core Scientific and Cipher Mining edged higher after Nvidia's May report, even as Nvidia's own shares fell. Investors increasingly value these miners for their data center capacity and power supply.21 Other reports also cited gains in IREN, Cipher and Hive Digital, and described these companies as moving into the AI infrastructure business.25

Our reading is that bitcoin borrows Nvidia's direction only when nothing bigger is moving markets. When oil prices, rate expectations or ETF flows take over, the link breaks. Miners that have turned into data center operators, on the other hand, are becoming real members of the sympathy group.

What to watch next

The next test arrives before Nvidia reports again. ASML is due to report on October 14, TSMC on October 15 and Lam Research on October 21, giving markets three early reads on AI spending.16 TSMC enters with revenue up 53% year over year in August and a capital spending budget of up to $64 billion.13 Nvidia's next report is tentatively expected on November 18.12

The historical data suggests a simple setup. AMD, Marvell, Vertiv and Micron are the most dependable ways to express a view on Nvidia's report. Super Micro offers the largest moves with the least consistency. Pfizer, McDonald's and the gold miners have tended to rise when the AI trade falls out of favor.1210 Bitcoin falls somewhere in the middle. It can follow a good Nvidia day higher, but only when the broader economy allows it.