Nvidia Earnings Sympathy Trade: AMD Leads, Pfizer and Gold Lag

A single report that moves more than one stock

Nvidia's quarterly results have turned into a market-wide event. On the morning after each report, traders reprice chip designers, equipment makers, data-center contractors, defensive blue chips and even bitcoin. A CNBC Pro screen published before the chipmaker's late-August report put numbers on that effect. It measured which stocks have tracked Nvidia's post-earnings move since 2016 and which have tended to move the other way.1 The August quarter tested the pattern live. Nvidia jumped 8.7% after beating forecasts and guiding well above consensus, and much of its ecosystem followed.15

The main lesson is that the sympathy trade is real, but it is narrower and more conditional than the usual "Nvidia lifts everything" story. The firmest links run through semiconductors and AI infrastructure. The inverse links mostly reflect rotation between risk-on and defensive positioning. Bitcoin's connection is the loosest of all.

Who moves with Nvidia

CNBC's screen looked at earnings-reaction days going back to 2016. It required at least 30 observations, a correlation of at least 0.45 and a market value above $2 billion.1 Advanced Micro Devices came out on top, with a 0.75 correlation, a 0.28 beta and same-direction moves on close to 70% of reaction days.1 Vertiv, which supplies power and cooling gear for data centers, came next with a 0.67 correlation, although it has only 32 observations.1 Onto Innovation, Marvell and Monolithic Power followed. Marvell moved in the same direction as Nvidia 71% of the time, the highest rate among the larger names.1 Micron, Broadcom, Synopsys and Cadence also qualified.1

An earlier CNBC screen from May took a different approach, ranking S&P 500 stocks by their excess returns over the index on Nvidia reaction days. It reached a similar core list. That version added optical-networking names Coherent and Lumentum, equipment makers KLA and Lam Research, and two companies outside the chip sector: data-center contractor Comfort Systems and equipment-rental firm United Rentals.2 Super Micro Computer showed the greatest sensitivity in that study but less consistency than the larger chipmakers.2 The two screens agree on the main point. Investors treat Nvidia's report as a reading on the whole AI build-out, from fabs to cooling systems, not just as news about one company.

The effect also reaches overseas. ASML, BE Semiconductor and German optics group Jenoptik tend to move with Nvidia's outlook.7 After the August report, ASML and ASMI each rose more than 2% in European trading and STMicroelectronics gained 3%.15

Different measures, different rankings

The rankings depend on the yardstick, and the coverage splits here. CNBC's AMD beta of 0.28 measures how much excess return AMD has produced for each 1% Nvidia moves after earnings. It is about the earnings event specifically.2 Investing.com ranked the same group by one-year beta, a general volatility measure. On that basis Super Micro scored 3.01, Broadcom 2.78 and Lam Research 2.44. The outlet argued that a 5% move in Nvidia could translate into double-digit swings in the most volatile names.4 It also pointed out that one-year betas for Super Micro, Broadcom and Lam had risen above their five-year figures, while Arm's had fallen.4

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) shows how these lenses can disagree. TSMC makes Nvidia's chips, yet Investing.com rated it the least reactive name on its list, with a beta of 1.09, because it trades more on its own cycle.4 The influence also runs the other way. TSMC's January earnings beat set off a broad chip rally that lifted Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Lam Research.12

For traders, these approaches answer different questions. High-beta names like Super Micro offer the biggest potential payoff, but history shows how unreliable that can be. In one past report, Super Micro rose as much as 11% before closing 3% lower, even as Nvidia gained more than 9%.3 Names with high correlation, such as AMD and Marvell, offer more consistency with smaller moves. Anyone building a sympathy trade has to pick which of those they want.

The anti-Nvidia basket

The inverse list looks very different. Pfizer had a correlation of negative 0.61 and moved with Nvidia only 38% of the time. McDonald's had a correlation of negative 0.56 and agreed with Nvidia on just 17% of reaction days.1 Verizon, Philip Morris, Amgen and Johnson & Johnson also qualified. So did gold miner Newmont, with a negative 0.54 correlation and a 29% agreement rate.1

No one is arguing that Nvidia's data-center numbers drive sales of hamburgers or vaccines. The more plausible explanation, which CNBC offered itself, is rotation. A strong Nvidia reaction tends to come with demand for growth and AI stocks, and defensive value names do better when that appetite fades.1 In that sense the anti-Nvidia basket captures the mood of the market more than any business link. That makes it useful mainly as a hedge, not as a bet on anything company-specific.

How the August quarter played out

The August report fit the sympathy model well. Nvidia posted revenue of about $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier and above estimates near $92.2 billion. It guided to $108 billion for the next quarter, against Street expectations around $104 billion.21 The stock gained 8.7%, Broadcom rose 4.5% and Intel about 4%, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF added 3%.15 Before the open, Marvell was up 5.8% and Micron 4.5%.15 AMD, Marvell and Micron all sit near the top of CNBC's sympathy list.

The result also stood out because it broke a pattern. In the sessions before the report, 24/7 Wall St. noted that Nvidia had beaten earnings estimates four quarters in a row while averaging a 2% decline on report day. Chip ETFs fell about 4% that Monday as traders cut exposure.13 The May quarter fit the older pattern: the stock slipped despite beating forecasts, raising guidance and announcing an $80 billion buyback.23 What changed in August was the size of the guidance beat, plus Jensen Huang's statement that supply would stay the main constraint through at least the end of fiscal 2028.17

The most likely explanation is that the sympathy basket follows the direction of Nvidia's stock, not the quality of its results. Even a blowout quarter drags peers down if Nvidia's shares fall. The report itself is not what sets the direction.

Bitcoin's on-and-off link

Crypto coverage often treats Nvidia's report as a driver of bitcoin. The record over the past year doesn't support that firmly. After the August beat, bitcoin rose about 2.4% to around $80,400 as Nasdaq futures climbed. Miners shifting toward AI hosting moved too: IREN rose 5% and TeraWulf and Cipher Mining about 3% before the open.21 Cointelegraph reported bitcoin reaching about $80,808 at Thursday's open.24 It also pointed to other factors, though, including a Jackson Hole speech by Fed chair Kevin Warsh and a large options expiry.24

Earlier quarters were mixed. In February, bitcoin briefly topped $70,000 after Nvidia's report, then fell to about $66,000 the next morning as Nvidia dropped roughly 5%.28 In May, bitcoin and ether edged lower after Nvidia's beat because rising oil prices and geopolitical tension dominated trading.22 In November 2025, the crypto market did bounce after a strong Nvidia print.27 Even crypto outlets that track the relationship add a caveat: earnings cannot explain every move in bitcoin's price, and the correlation shifts over time.21

The more lasting connection is through bitcoin miners, not bitcoin itself. CoinDesk reported that miners with AI and high-performance computing businesses, including Core Scientific and Cipher Mining, rose after the May report even though Nvidia's stock fell.23 These companies have power, cooling and data-center space, and the market increasingly prices them as AI infrastructure.25 They behave more like Vertiv than like a token.

What to watch next

The screens point to a simple framework. AMD, Marvell, Vertiv and Micron are the most reliable ways to trade Nvidia's direction. Super Micro and Arm offer bigger moves but less dependability. TSMC trades largely on its own fundamentals. Defensives and gold have tended to rise when the AI trade falls. Bitcoin follows Nvidia only when the broader risk mood lines up.

Follow-up reports will test each link: Broadcom reported on September 2 and Micron on September 30.17 Broadcom's June quarter is a warning. The stock fell 15% after a record report because it held its AI target steady instead of raising it.5 That case points to the main limit of any sympathy screen. Expectations are set company by company, and Nvidia's report can shift the mood across the group but cannot do much for a stock whose own numbers disappoint.