North Dakota Oil Production Edges Up as Rig Count Climbs to 34

Bakken output rises again as drilling picks up

North Dakota's oil patch is getting busier, though the extra drilling has not yet shown up as much extra oil. In the state's latest monthly figures, production rose by 1,846 barrels per day in July to an average of 1.157 million bpd. Regulators also said the active rig count held at 34 in September, the same as August.15 The rig count is the bigger story. In August the number of rigs jumped from 26 to 33, and the number of companies running rigs rose from 14 to 19.17 The state's daily report showed 35 active rigs on October 5.33 An independent tracker that reads the state's rig list every day counted 34 on October 8. That is six above the 2026 average of about 27.7 and three below the year's high of 37.34

What this means is fairly clear. The Bakken is responding to a long period of war-driven crude prices, but carefully. More rigs and more completions are driving the gain in output. The rise in production has been small so far, and the rigs added late in the summer will take months to deliver the oil prices are paying for.

How the numbers add up

The production figures point the same way across outlets, even where the decimals differ. The Forum News Service reported that the state produced 35.85 million barrels in July, or about 1.156 million bpd, up from 1.154 million bpd in June.16 Reuters gave a slightly higher July average of 1.157 million bpd.15 Federal data shows a bigger swing earlier in the summer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration puts North Dakota at 1.119 million bpd in May and 1.158 million bpd in June.24 State regulators described June as a 28,000 bpd monthly gain to 1.153 million bpd.17 The two agencies count differently. Either way, June brought a real jump, and July held most of it.

The number of producing wells also hit a new high. The state counted 20,072 producing wells in July, 111 more than the month before.19 Completions, the step that turns a drilled hole into a flowing well, rose to 74 in July from 65 in June.17 Pipeline Authority director Justin Kringstad said he expected August to beat July, given current activity and prices.15

The rig numbers don't line up as neatly. The weekly Baker Hughes survey had North Dakota at 31 rigs in mid-September and again in early October.2013 State lists have shown 33 to 36 over the same stretch.34 The rig tracker explains that Baker Hughes counts a rig only if it is actually drilling at least four days out of seven. The state simply lists every active rig, so the totals can differ in either direction.34 Every count agrees on the direction, though. Drilling in the Williston Basin is up from a year ago, and Baker Hughes put the basin at 35 rigs in September, six more than in 2025.20

From bear-market planning to a war premium

This is a sharp change from the start of the year. In December 2025, Department of Mineral Resources director Nathan Anderson expected a bear market in 2026. He pointed to global supply running about 2 million bpd ahead of demand and saw prices staying at or below $60.23 In January, Continental Resources said it would cut three rigs from its North Dakota drilling.22 By late February, Anderson said most operators planned to keep production flat for the year.27 The state's rig count fell to 19 in mid-April, its lowest reading on record.34

The Iran war upended those plans. Reuters reported that the U.S. benchmark had risen 44% from the start of the conflict in late February through May.12 The industry did not rush to drill. In April, Anderson said companies first restarted wells they had shut in during the low-price period and stepped up maintenance work, while holding back on new rigs. They did not know how long the conflict would last.30 In May, regulators said most companies were still working from budgets set late the previous year.12 Production rose a little in March, to 1,142,725 bpd, and dipped in April to 1,137,155 bpd.1211

The turn came in late summer. Anderson said the August rig jump showed companies either cashing in on high prices or growing more confident that $80 oil would last.17 By September, state officials said the rig additions had leveled off. Most of the new rigs came back from idle status inside North Dakota or moved in from Montana.15

Crude prices: elevated, volatile, and pointing lower further out

Price is what matters for the next leg, and it has been volatile. WTI futures settled near $91.85 on October 9 after trading between about $88 and $93 that week.3 By one market data provider's measure, crude is down nearly 11% over the past month but still about 55% higher than a year ago.1 Prices eased after President Trump said Washington was in "productive discussions" with Iran and would hold off on attacks before the midterm elections.1 Brent, the international benchmark, was around $104.54.7 The EIA's spot series shows something different: WTI at Cushing was $96.24 on October 6.5 Futures for the same day were about $89.44.3 Readers should keep that gap in mind when comparing figures across reports.

In September, quoted prices went into triple digits. WTI traded around $100.74 on September 18.20 The Forum reported a $102.54 futures price at the state's September 21 briefing, while Reuters cited a front-month price of $95.78 the same day.1915 Those figures likely refer to different contracts. Either way, crude was well above where it had been earlier in the year.

For producers, the futures curve matters more than the headline price. Reuters noted that the March contract, which roughly matches the time it takes to drill and complete a new well, traded near $82 while the front month was about $96.15 Companies base drilling decisions on futures because first oil can arrive six to nine months after drilling starts.30 So the steep discount on later contracts is a warning. Rigs added today will produce into a market the futures curve already expects to be cheaper.

Forecasts disagree widely on where prices go. The EIA's September outlook expected WTI to average about $84 in the fourth quarter.4 Citi has said prices could fall to $60–$65 by early 2027.11 Trading Economics' model points the other way, at about $109 within a year.1 Kringstad said forecasting crude prices remains difficult.15

The cushion beneath the Bakken

North Dakota's production looks hard to knock down, whatever happens to prices. It held above 1.1 million bpd through the $60 period.23 In June, a temporary price drop after an interim U.S.-Iran deal pushed WTI to $76.60. Anderson said at the time that producers had kept output between 1 million and 1.5 million bpd even at $60, and that $75 oil was strong by his measure.11 Technology accounts for much of that resilience. About 10% of permitted horizontal wells in the state now run four miles.27 Three-mile wells made up roughly 30% of completions as of late 2025.29

There is one soft spot. Regulators counted nine active fracking crews in September.15 That is down from 12 in June and 13 in May.1112 The crews complete wells, so rigs rising while crews shrink could slow how fast the new drilling turns into production. State officials said they were seeing busier maintenance work and companies moving faster to bring wells online, which may offset part of that.1518

What it means for Bismarck's budget

The state treasury gains the most right away. North Dakota's oil sold for an average of $75.56 a barrel in July. That is 32.6% above the $57 price built into the revenue forecast, and July production beat its forecast by 5.15%.1916 Even so, the state has left its production forecast unchanged even though July beat its 1.1 million bpd assumption.15 Given how this year has gone, that seems wise.

The overall picture is that North Dakota's output is creeping higher, not booming. The rig count has risen to its highest level of the year and the number of producing wells is at a record. Both suggest modest gains through the fall, as Kringstad expects. But the futures curve slopes downward, there are fewer frac crews, and Washington is talking with Tehran, so the case for more drilling still rests on how long the war premium lasts. If prices fall toward the low end of the forecasts, the Bakken's efficiency should keep production near 1.15 million bpd. Producers would not need to keep the rigs they added in August.