India-Germany Trade Push Gathers Pace Ahead of EU FTA Signing

A week of signals from Berlin and New Delhi

Over about seven days in late October, India and Germany used ministerial visits, embassy receptions and a chancellor's speech in Singapore to send a consistent message. Both governments want the India-EU free trade agreement to be the anchor of a broader realignment. India's government is pitching the country as Europe's dependable partner, and Germany is building a trade network meant to reduce its exposure to both Beijing and Washington.

The main event was Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's visit to Berlin from October 22 to 24, before he went on to the Netherlands.10 On October 22 he met Katherina Reiche, Germany's Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy. The two opened a new India Centre at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and co-chaired a business roundtable with German chief executives.8 About 100 Indian businesses and startups travelled with him.1 India's ambassador in Berlin, Ajit Gupte, said the delegation signed several memoranda of understanding during sector-specific roundtables.5

The corporate meetings showed where India sees German capital. Goyal met senior executives from Bayer, Knauf and Fresenius.1 The next day he met Siemens Healthineers CEO Bernd Montag, Bertelsmann's Carsten Coesfeld, and Volkswagen CFO Holger Peters, who also runs Škoda Auto.6 He also met the heads of several Fraunhofer Institutes, whose work covers microelectronics, power electronics, smart manufacturing and battery technology.6 Taken together, the list covers healthcare technology, automotive, chemicals and applied industrial research. These are the sectors where German know-how and India's manufacturing plans fit most closely.

The big number, and how to read it

The headline figure was Goyal's call to grow India-Germany bilateral trade from about €31.5 billion to €310 billion, close to a tenfold increase.10 He gave no timeline and asked businesses on both sides to pick priority sectors and work out a roadmap themselves.10

The target is best read as a political statement, not a forecast. Without a deadline it cannot be checked. Goyal's own baseline also differs from other official figures. The joint statement from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's visit to India in January said bilateral goods and services trade passed US$50 billion in 2024.12 The two numbers probably measure different things, goods only in one case and goods plus services in the other. That gap is a reminder that the starting point depends on what is counted. What matters more is the direction. Goyal wants the two economies to move beyond selling "Made in India" or "Made in Germany" products to each other and toward goods and technology developed jointly.10

The wider European context makes the ambition easier to follow. EU-India goods trade reached €118 billion in 2025, and services trade came to €67 billion in 2024.2 Germany is India's largest trading partner in the EU.2 More than 2,000 German companies operate in India, mostly in automotive, mechanical engineering, chemicals and renewable energy.3

Where the FTA timeline diverges

The week's coverage disagrees most on when the India-EU agreement will actually take effect.

Negotiations closed at the 16th India-EU Summit in New Delhi on January 27, 2026.15 On September 11, the European Commission sent proposals to the Council asking for authorisation to sign and conclude the deal.2 Goyal told the Berlin roundtable he expected signing to come quickly and the agreement to be operational within four to five months. He urged companies to start exchanging samples, quality specifications and prices now so they are "first off the block" when it takes effect.19 He also said that although talks took twenty years, the deal was really finalised in the last thirteen months.19

Germany's ambassador in New Delhi, Jaspar Wieck, sounded more careful at the October 27 reception for German Unity Day. He said he "hopefully" expected signing by the end of the year and called the pact a "game changer." He also pointed out that the European Parliament still has to ratify it after signing.15 Some trade-press coverage went further and stressed that concluding talks, signing and entry into force are separate steps, and that none of the Berlin meetings created preferential trade terms.12

On balance, the reporting supports a firmer conclusion than either official gave. A signing in late 2026 looks realistic, since both governments are now publicly tied to that timeline. Goyal's four-to-five-month window for the deal to become operational is the optimistic case, because it requires the European Parliament to move fast. It is notable that a European Parliament delegation led by Foreign Affairs Committee chair David McAllister was in New Delhi the same week and met Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla.3 That suggests Brussels lawmakers are paying attention. It does not show they will move quickly.

Germany's wider Asia play

Goyal's visit fits into a larger German strategy. On October 27, as Wieck spoke in New Delhi, Merz gave a policy speech in Singapore. He called on the EU to pursue a large interregional deal with the 12 members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and in the longer term an EU-ASEAN agreement.13 He named India alongside Indonesia, the Philippines, Australia and Malaysia as bilateral deals the EU should coordinate more closely so they work better together.1118 He said an EU-CPTPP pact would reflect how tightly supply chains are now linked, and that the two blocs together account for more than a third of global trade.16

Coverage of the trip agreed that its main purpose was to diversify German trade and reduce dependence on China. Merz said he rejects cutting ties with Beijing and prefers to reduce risk by building partnerships with like-minded countries.13 Reuters quoted him describing the EU's trade push as a "deliberate counterpoint" to current restrictions on global trade.17 Read alongside the Berlin meetings, India appears to be the largest single piece of that plan, a market big enough to matter on its own, though Merz framed it as one link in a wider chain. Formally, trade negotiations belong to the EU and not to Berlin.11 Germany's role is to push from inside the bloc.

The Indian side presents the same moment differently. Gupte argued that the war in Ukraine, Europe's energy crisis and tension in the transatlantic relationship have led Germany and Europe to see India as a "very reliable and trustworthy partner."5 Both governments describe the same realignment, each from its own side.

Beyond trade: defence, people and the 75-year frame

The 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations, which began in 1951, framed the whole week.3 It also gave cover to a relationship that now reaches well beyond trade.

Defence ties are moving forward. Germany's Chief of Defence, General Carsten Breuer, visited New Delhi on October 6 for talks with India's Chief of Defence Staff. In September, Wieck said the proposed submarine deal was finalised on the German side and now depended on India completing its internal procedures.9 In the same month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Merz spoke by phone and listed trade, defence, clean energy, advanced technology and talent mobility as priorities.9

The flow of people may be the most durable part of the relationship. Gupte said the Indian diaspora in Germany has grown by about 60,000 a year for two years and now exceeds 332,000.5 According to the German embassy, nearly 70,000 Indian students are enrolled in Germany, and almost a third of all German student visas worldwide are issued in India.3 Recruitment firms report that Germany's "Focus on India" measures raised the annual skilled-worker visa allocation for Indians from 20,000 to 90,000.25 The government strategy behind those measures was adopted in 2024.2

The friction points

Not everything is aligned. An Indian commentary on the latest EU summit noted that European industrial protectionism and carbon-related rules can hurt Indian exporters. It also noted that India's continued ties with Russia sit uneasily with Europe's support for Ukraine.20 The same piece argued that a more autonomous Europe would give India more options in trade, technology and investment. Those openings would be in defence production, semiconductors, critical minerals and clean energy, and in supply chains where Europe wants an alternative to China.20

At home, Merz has to weigh fiscal discipline against the costs of Ukraine, defence and industrial revival.20 Those constraints could limit how much state backing Berlin can give to the partnership it is promoting.

The verdict

The week's coverage points to a clear conclusion. The India-Germany relationship is shifting from goodwill toward implementation, and the India-EU FTA is the mechanism that will decide whether it succeeds. The €310 billion target is aspirational and the four-to-five-month timeline is optimistic. Still, the new DGAP India Centre, the CEO meetings, the near-final submarine deal and the steady growth in people moving between the two countries show that both sides are investing in more than ceremony. The test comes in 2027, when signed agreements either produce contracts and shipments or turn out to be one more anniversary promise.