Halloween Spending Rises to $13.5 Billion Despite Soft Jobs Report

Americans are once again proving that no economic ghost story—not a cooling labor market, not sticky inflation, not tariffs—can scare them away from Halloween. The National Retail Federation's annual consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, projects total Halloween spending will reach $13.5 billion this year, edging past last year's record of $13.1 billion and marking another high-water mark for a holiday that has quietly become one of retail's most reliable engines18.

The figure lands at a strange moment in the macroeconomy. Hiring has all but stalled, price growth remains well above the Federal Reserve's comfort zone, and GDP growth decelerated in the spring. Yet the candy, costumes, and decorations keep flying off shelves. The divergence between the hard economic data and the consumer's willingness to spend on a discretionary autumn ritual is the defining story of this Halloween season.

What the numbers say

The NRF survey paints a picture of steady, slightly elevated enthusiasm. Roughly 74% of consumers plan to celebrate the holiday this year, up a tick from 73% a year ago18. Per-celebrant and category-level details this year echo last year's record season, when consumers spent $4.3 billion on costumes, $4.2 billion on decorations, $3.9 billion on candy, and $700 million on greeting cards39.

What has changed most is how people shop. About half of consumers—49%—started buying for Halloween in September or earlier, a share that has climbed steadily over the past decade from just 34% in 201618. Discount stores remain the top destination for Halloween purchases, at 39% of shoppers, ahead of specialty costume stores (32%) and online retailers (27%)8. Notably, local and small businesses have nearly doubled their share of Halloween shoppers over ten years, to 13% from 7%8.

"Consumers continue to make Halloween a spending priority, but they are also approaching the season with affordability in mind," NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Allison Zeller said, describing shoppers as "thoughtful and strategic" about maximizing value through the season8.

The labor market backdrop: hiring hits a soft patch

The confidence embedded in that $13.5 billion forecast looks more remarkable against the September jobs report released in early October. U.S. employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below the roughly 90,000 economists had forecast and a sharp pullback from the 162,000 initially reported for August, a figure later revised down to 133,000121519. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%1217[19.

The details were similarly muted. Average hourly earnings rose a slim 0.1% from August and are up 3% year over year—by most readings below the current pace of inflation17[19. July and August payrolls were collectively revised lower by 60,000 jobs [19. Economists described a labor market still defined by "low hire, low fire" dynamics: companies aren't laying workers off in meaningful numbers, but they've largely stopped adding them [1920.

There is a debate over how alarmed to be. RBC's economics team characterized the rise in unemployment as largely a rounding artifact—4.175% in September versus 4.141% in August—partly driven by a rise in labor force participation, and noted that broader measures of labor underutilization actually held steady or improved [20. Vanguard senior economist Adam Schickling argued the report "strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to remain patient" [19. Others see the creep as genuine: the unemployment rate has drifted up from 4.0% a year earlier, and job creation has decelerated meaningfully since mid-2025 [16.

Inflation: the persistent drain on wallets

Whatever the labor market diagnosis, the price side of the household ledger is unambiguous. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August, holding the 12-month inflation rate at 3.4%, unchanged from July but well above the Fed's 2% target [333436. The August increase was heavily driven by a 3.9% monthly jump in gasoline prices—economists tied the energy surge to the Iran conflict and its effects on global oil supply [343839.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, cooled to 2.4% annually, its lowest reading since March 2021 [36. But core prices rose a hotter-than-expected 0.3% for the month, and analysts flagged sticky non-housing services inflation running above 3% annually as a lingering problem [3337. Food prices were up 2.7% year over year, with dining-out costs up 3.4% [3640.

The practical translation for Halloween shoppers: prices on candy, costumes, and décor have been climbing faster than most paychecks for years. One analysis of last season noted that consumers "aren't necessarily buying more—they're just paying more for what they get," with cocoa supply shocks in West Africa pushing chocolate costs to multi-decade highs and shrinkflation shrinking package sizes [7. A Syracuse University supply chain professor estimated 10% to 15% price increases on costumes, decorations, and candy in the 2025 season, tied in part to roughly 30% tariffs on Chinese-made goods, where most Halloween products are manufactured [5.

GDP and consumer spending: resilient, but with cracks

The growth picture explains how spending keeps rising even as sentiment sours. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's final estimate put second-quarter GDP growth at a 2.2% annualized rate—revised up 0.7 percentage point from the prior estimate and ahead of forecasts—after a 2.5% gain in the first quarter [21242528. Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of the economy, accelerated sharply, revised up to a 3.8% annualized pace from just 0.7% in the first quarter [2328. Business investment outside housing advanced at a 9% clip, powered by AI-related equipment spending, and real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.6%, a strong signal of underlying private demand [2328.

But the same report showed the cracks. Net trade subtracted roughly 1.1 to 1.7 percentage points from headline growth as imports surged 12.6%, and the PCE price index rose 5.0% in the quarter—5.6% on the broader GDP price measure—evidence that the demand fueling growth is colliding with elevated price pressures [232425. Meanwhile, consumer confidence recently sank to its lowest level in 12 years, with more Americans expecting a recession within the year [22.

Why Halloween keeps winning

The synthesis across this data is that Halloween has become a small, affordable indulgence that households refuse to cut even when they're cutting elsewhere. It's spending driven, as one analyst put it, "by tradition and emotion rather than economic comfort" [7. The behavioral evidence backs that up: the early-shopping trend, the migration toward discount stores, and the stretching of a single October night into a two-month "Summerween" season all point to consumers managing budgets without surrendering the holiday [1678.

The reading worth committing to here is that the Halloween uptick is less a signal of consumer strength than a portrait of adaptation. The same shoppers telling surveyors they expect a recession are also buying pet costumes—$860 million worth last year [39—and greeting-card spending that has grown as people seek low-cost ways to mark occasions with family [3. Discretionary, experience-adjacent, and cheap relative to a vacation, Halloween is the recession-proof treat in an economy that increasingly looks like a trick.

The open question is whether the record streak can survive another year of 3%+ inflation, sub-100,000 monthly job gains, and tariff-driven cost pressure on imported goods. Last season, one observer warned that "next year's Halloween could tell a very different story" if price increases finally overwhelm consumers' enthusiasm [7. The 2026 answer: $13.5 billion says not yet. But with the Fed weighing rate hikes against a stalling labor market and gas prices hostage to geopolitical shocks, the margin for the traditional Halloween splurge is thinner than the cheer suggests [333820. For retailers, the treat keeps coming; for the economists watching, the trick is figuring out how long that can last.