Q2 2026 GDP Revised Up to 2.2% as Profit Margins Hit a Record
BEA revised Q2 2026 GDP growth up to 2.2% from 1.5%, with profits up $384B and PCE prices at 5.0%, as September CPI rose to 3.7% on energy costs.
Inflation Rate Prices
Inflation measures how quickly the cost of goods and services rises over time, and it remains one of the most closely watched forces shaping the economy today. After years of aggressive central bank action to tame post-pandemic price surges, inflation dynamics continue to influence everything from household budgets to corporate earnings to government policy. This hub tracks the data, debates, and decisions that determine whether prices are cooling, stabilizing, or reaccelerating.
Why does this matter now? Central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, are navigating a delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding damage to employment and growth. Every new inflation report—whether the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—feeds directly into expectations about interest rate decisions, bond yields, and financial market sentiment. At the same time, inflation's real-world effects on consumer spending, wages, and purchasing power ripple through nearly every sector of the economy.
Readers here will find coverage of monthly inflation data releases and how economists and policymakers interpret them, analysis of Federal Reserve commentary and rate-path speculation, reporting on labor market indicators that intersect with inflation trends, and examination of how shifting price pressures affect consumer behavior, corporate strategy, and investment markets. Whether you're trying to understand why a report diverges from expectations or how a Fed official's remarks might move markets, this collection offers ongoing, timely context for one of the economy's most consequential storylines.
Latest findings
Producer Price Index Jumps 6.3%, Hottest Since 2022 on Oil Shock
US wholesale prices rose 6.3% year over year in September, beating forecasts, after CPI hit 3.7% on an Iran war energy shock, lifting Fed hike odds.
September CPI Inflation Hits 3.7% as Gasoline Prices Jump 9.1%
US CPI rose 0.6% in September, lifting annual inflation to 3.7% as gasoline jumped 9.1%. Core CPI hit 2.6%, raising odds of more Fed rate hikes.
September CPI Hits 3.7% as Gasoline Surge Lifts Core Inflation
US consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September, up from 3.4%, as gasoline jumped 9.1% and core CPI rose to 2.6%, raising the odds of a Fed hike.
September CPI Expected to Show Fuel Prices Pushing Inflation to 3.7%
Economists expect September CPI to rise to 3.6%-3.7% on soaring fuel prices, with core near 2.4%, shaping the Fed's late-October rate decision.
Retail Sales Surge in August Despite Consumer Price Fatigue
US retail sales rose 1.2% in August, beating forecasts as the control group jumped 1.4%, though tariffs and price effects cloud the consumer picture.
10-Year Treasury Yield Eases From 2002 High as Auction Demand Holds Up
The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.35%, its highest since 2002, then eased after a strong $39 billion note auction. Oil and inflation risks remain.
Consumer Inflation Expectations Hit 3.9%, Highest Level Since May 2023
One-year consumer inflation expectations jumped to 3.9%, the highest since May 2023, while households plan 5.5% spending growth with incomes expected to rise
Halloween Spending Rises to $13.5 Billion Despite Soft Jobs Report
NRF projects Halloween spending up to $13.5 billion in 2026 as unemployment ticks to 4.2%, inflation holds at 3.4%, and GDP growth slows to 2.2%.
US Inflation Holds at 3.4% as Q2 GDP Revised Up to 2.2%
August 2026 CPI shows headline inflation at 3.4% yearly and 0.4% monthly, while Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% on stronger consumer spending.
US Consumer Faces 3.4% Inflation, Weak Jobs and a Fed at a Crossroads
September 2026 jobs data, August CPI and retail sales, and revised Q2 GDP show a US consumer still spending as prices climb and hiring stalls.
US Inflation Rate Climbs to 3.7% as Hiring Stalls at 29,000 Jobs
US CPI inflation rose to 3.7% in September on soaring gas prices, while payrolls grew just 29,000 and unemployment hit 4.2%, complicating the Fed's path.
Consumer Spending Holds Up as CPI Hits 3.7% and Yields Whipsaw
September CPI rose 3.7% on a 9.1% gasoline jump, retail sales gained 0.8% mostly on fuel, and the 10-year yield hit 5.33% before falling back near 5.08%.
August Jobs Report Shows 162,000 Gain as Inflation Holds at 3.4%
US payrolls rose 162,000 in August 2026 with unemployment at 4.1%. CPI held at 3.4% and spending jumped 0.9%, and the Fed raised rates in September.
CPI Inflation Climbs to 3.7%, Putting October Fed Hike in Play
US CPI rose 3.7% annually in September, up from 3.4% in August, with core at 2.6%. The 10-year yield neared 5.3% and October Fed hike odds jumped.
Inflation Report Lands as Oil Tops $100 and Yields Surge
Oil above $100 a barrel and hot PPI data pushed Treasury yields to multi-year highs ahead of a knife-edge Fed decision on rates.
Bessent's Treasury Buyback Backfires as 10-Year Yield Hits 4.85%
Bessent's Treasury buyback aimed at lowering rates instead pushed the 10-year yield to 4.85% and sank stocks, sources show.
10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5% After Breaking 4.76% Mark on Inflation
The 10-year Treasury yield broke 4.76%, then passed 5% to hit a 2002 high as hot CPI data, Fed hikes, deficits and AI borrowing pushed rates up.
July CPI Lands in JPMorgan Base Case as Core Inflation Hits 0.2%
July CPI rose 0.1% (3.4% a year), with core at 0.2%. That fit JPMorgan's base case, and stocks edged up while retail sales fell 0.6% and wages lagged prices.
PCE, CPI Data Show Inflation Cooling but Sticky in July
July CPI and PCE data show inflation moderating but sticky, as consumer spending pulls back amid elevated energy and grocery prices.
July CPI Rises 3.4% as Energy Costs Keep Inflation Sticky
July CPI rose 3.4% as energy costs stayed high, easing Treasury yields and reducing pressure for a Fed rate hike.
PCE Inflation Data for July Keeps Fed Rate Cuts in Doubt
July PCE inflation data showed core prices up 0.2% and 3.3% annually, while consumer spending stalled amid persistent price pressures.
Inflation Pressure Mounts on Warsh Ahead of September CPI Report
A hot August CPI drove Warsh's Fed to its first hike since 2023. September CPI, due Oct. 14, is seen near 3.7% as energy costs climb and guidance stays thin.
Disinflation Stalls as PCE Holds at 3.7% Annual Rate
PCE inflation held at 3.7% in July as consumer spending slowed, narrowing the Fed's room for policy error.
Bank of Korea Hikes Rate to 3% as Inflation Persists
Bank of Korea raises rates to 3% amid persistent inflation, as U.S. price data surprises and stirs Fed and political debate.
S&P 500 Stalls as Sticky PCE Inflation Clouds Nvidia Earnings Day
The S&P 500 closed flat at 7,675.70 on Aug. 26 after July PCE inflation ran slightly hot. Later revisions and the CPI data since have changed that picture.
July Data Show Inflation Still Squeezing Consumer Spending
July data show consumer spending cooling as inflation stays high, with income lagging spending for a record 25 months.
Q2 GDP Held at 1.5% Then Jumped to 2.2% as PCE Inflation Cooled
BEA held Q2 2026 GDP growth at 1.5% in August while lifting PCE inflation to 5.3%; a September revision raised growth to 2.2% and cut inflation to 5.0%.
July PCE Data Muddies Fed's September Rate Hike Path
July's PCE inflation report showed mixed signals, easing Fed rate-hike pressure despite firm core prices and slowing consumer spending.
Fed's Collins Inflation Warning Comes True as Rate Hike Tests CPI
Boston Fed's Susan Collins warned in August that rates must rise without inflation progress. The Fed then hiked, and Oct. 14 CPI is expected at 3.6%.
Related topics