Gasoline Prices Under Trump Top Biden Average as Oil Tops $100

A one-tenth-of-a-cent milestone with outsized political weight

One of the steadiest Republican attack lines of the last four years has now turned against the party. Daily AAA data released Monday show regular gasoline has averaged $3.472 a gallon since President Donald Trump returned to office, a hair above the $3.471 average across Joe Biden's term.22 The gap is less than a cent.21 Still, the reversal is sharp for a president who promised on the 2024 campaign trail to push gasoline below $2 a gallon.2330

The timing makes it worse. Republicans are defending thin majorities in both chambers on November 3, and the AAA figure landed about a week before Election Day.25 Diesel tells a bigger story than gasoline. Under Trump it has averaged $4.343 a gallon, against $4.078 under Biden.24 Bloomberg puts that gap at roughly 6%.27

The reporting from Reuters, Bloomberg, CNN (as relayed by Quartz) and Forbes agrees on the core numbers, all of which come from the same AAA series.21222328 The coverage splits on what the comparison means. That split is where the real story sits.

How prices got here: Hormuz, refining and a missing gasoline supply

The year began with cheap fuel. Before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran started on February 28, the national average was close to $2.98.23 Since then, pump prices have climbed 43% and diesel almost 70%, according to Bloomberg.27 The fighting has focused on the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about a fifth of the world's oil and gas before the war.24 It has cut crude flows and tightened global refining capacity that was already stretched.27

Refined products have been hit hardest. Susan Bell of Rystad Energy estimates the world is short about 400,000 barrels a day of gasoline that Middle Eastern refiners would normally export.27 Diesel set a national record of $6.523 a gallon on September 22.24 AAA had it near $6.35 this week.30

The current average was $4.286 a gallon on Sunday. That is the highest AAA has ever recorded this late in a year.27 Forbes noted that prices are more than $1.20 above where they stood a year ago.28 Accounts of the peak differ by data series. Quartz, using AAA figures, puts the high at $4.56 in May, while Forbes cites GasBuddy's mid-September high of $4.49.2328 Either way, pump prices have eased somewhat since September but remain well above $4. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan expects gasoline to stay above $4 and diesel above $6 through Election Day.30

Crude above $100 keeps the floor high

The crude market gives little reason to expect quick relief. Brent closed Wednesday at $115.32 a barrel and WTI at $102.78. Prices rose after reports that Washington had told Gulf governments to prepare for renewed strikes on Iran after the midterms.3 The Houthis' claimed missile strike on Saudi Aramco's 550,000-barrel-a-day Ras Tanura refinery added to the pressure.8 Brent moved above $117 last week, its highest level since April.9 It is still below the $126 peak reached earlier in the war.6

Forecasters are adjusting upward, not down. UBS raised its year-end Brent target for the second time this month, from $100 to $110.8 Analysts quoted in Indian financial coverage said further damage to facilities or shipping lanes could push Brent toward $120.1

The supply-side data are mixed, and the White House is leaning on the favorable part. Kpler data show Middle East oil exports, counting Hormuz, Gulf of Oman and Red Sea shipments, averaged 24.6 million barrels a day in the week to October 18. That is the highest level since the war began and above pre-war volumes.24 White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers has cited higher Gulf flows as evidence of progress and said prices will fall "drastically" once the conflict ends.24 Traders are not pricing it that way. One analyst noted that high freight costs and ongoing security threats still make Gulf exports unreliable even as Hormuz volumes recover.1 UBS's forecast note says Gulf flows remain below pre-war levels.8 Our reading: barrels are moving, but the risk premium has not gone away, and the premium is what sets the price.

The policy toolkit is working slowly

The administration has tried several measures. It has drawn down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, temporarily suspended the Jones Act, and allowed red-dyed diesel on highways.23 Last week it invoked wartime authorities to raise domestic fuel output, and the Energy Department set aside $150 million for refinery investment.27 It also struck a deal to import Russian diesel.27 Earlier, the EPA issued an emergency waiver that let winter-grade gasoline go on sale from September 1.23

The industry's response has been cool. Valero CEO Lane Riggs warned that a shuttered refinery cannot simply be switched back on. Chief operating officer Gary Simmons said the Russian diesel volumes are not significant.27 Internationally, the G7's extra 100 million barrels mostly speeds up a release already planned, and the first Russian diesel cargo bound for the U.S. did not halt the rally.1 These measures share a problem: they work on a timescale of months, and the election is days away.

Natural gas: the energy price that isn't spiking

The most striking contrast in U.S. energy markets is between oil and gas. Crude sits above $100, while Henry Hub natural gas is cheap. Quotes for the benchmark this week ran from about $2.55 to $3.08 per MMBtu, depending on the contract and timing.211 EIA data put the spot price at $2.76 on October 27, with storage 35 Bcf above the five-year average.19 Trading Economics shows gas about 19% below its level a year ago.11

The reason is domestic supply. Lower 48 output hit records of 113.3 Bcf/d in August and September.11 The EIA expects Henry Hub to average $3.16 in 2027, down 9% from 2026, as production growth outpaces new LNG demand.18 The U.S. advantage is huge: Henry Hub near $3 compares with roughly $23–26 per MMBtu at the Dutch TTF and Asia's JKM hubs.16 Europe has taken the brunt of the Hormuz shock, with TTF hitting its highest level since December 2022.15

That gap shapes the political story. Shale has protected American electricity and heating bills from the war far more than it has protected drivers. Oil and refined products are priced on a global market. U.S. natural gas mostly is not.

Data centers: a slower-burning cost pressure

This is why data center energy demand matters even though it has nothing to do with gasoline. The AI build-out is creating a second, slower-moving source of cost pressure through electricity and gas, not oil. TechCrunch, citing Wood Mackenzie, reports that data centers pushing power demand to new highs are contributing to rising energy prices and inflation.17 In PJM, the largest U.S. grid, power prices are up about 56% year over year, and operating reserves fell to roughly 5 GW against 163 GW of July demand.16 Gas burned for power rose almost 5% year over year in September, with data centers a key driver.20

Anthropic's IPO filing added a new kind of warning. In its S-1, the company said competition among data center operators for the same gas supply and pipeline capacity could raise local prices. It also said gas shortfalls could delay or kill planned sites.14 The filing promises to cover electricity cost increases its data centers pass on to consumers but makes no matching promise on gas.12 Industrial users say the squeeze has already started. Paul Cicio of the Industrial Energy Consumers of America says pipelines are restricting deliveries even in warm weather.12

Estimates of data center gas demand by 2030 vary. RBC forecasts about 6.1 Bcf/d, Enverus up to 4.1 Bcf/d, and S&P around 4 Bcf/d.1513 S&P expects LNG exports to add more than 10 Bcf/d over the same period, which suggests exports, not AI, will be the bigger driver of demand.13 Analysts at Yes Energy describe the medium-term outlook as "cautiously bullish," since demand is showing up faster than new production.13 Our reading: data centers will not change this year's election, but they are setting up the next fight over energy affordability, which will be about power bills instead of the pump.

What the comparison does and doesn't prove

Analysts warn that comparing nominal averages across years with persistent inflation can mislead. De Haan noted that Americans are still not spending a record share of their income on fuel.22 One-year consumer inflation expectations have risen from 3.4% in February to 4.7%.24 Biden also still holds the single-day record, $5.02 in June 2022.27 Ryan Cummings of Stanford, a former Biden economist, argues that voters are measuring today's prices against Trump's promise of sub-$3 gasoline, a gap of about $1.50, rather than against Biden's average.27

That seems right to us. The one-tenth-of-a-cent crossover mostly serves as a headline. The real political damage comes from fuel above $4, diesel above $6, a war with no end in sight, and Trump's own comments. At a rally he dismissed criticism of oil company profits with "I don't give a damn."27 His approval fell to 31% in the October Reuters/Ipsos poll, with only 23% approving of his handling of the economy.29 In the New York Times/Siena poll, 76% of voters disapproved of his handling of gas prices.28 The Cook Political Report now rates Senate races in Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska as toss-ups, all states Trump won by double digits.27

Relief depends mainly on diplomacy, as De Haan has said.23 Crude markets are pricing in the possibility of more fighting after November 3, so drivers are likely to vote with fuel still costing well above what they were promised.3