Eli Lilly Stock Hits Record as Zepbound Sales Lift 2026 Forecast

A record day built on volume, not price

Eli Lilly shares reached an all-time high on Thursday. Third-quarter results beat profit forecasts, and the company raised its full-year revenue outlook again, on the strength of its injectable weight-loss and diabetes drugs.11 The stock touched $1,408.34 in early trading and was later up about 7.5% at $1,389. If that move held, it would add roughly $80 billion to a market value already near $1.2 trillion.11 Lilly is now the world's most valuable healthcare company.16

The numbers behind the move were large. Revenue rose 39% to $24.4 billion, compared with $17.6 billion a year earlier.1 Mounjaro, the tirzepatide brand for diabetes, brought in $10.7 billion, up 65%. Zepbound, the same molecule sold for obesity, rose 49% to $5.35 billion.18 Taken together, the two products made up roughly two-thirds of quarterly revenue.7 Lilly now expects 2026 revenue of $91 billion to $92 billion, up from its earlier range of $85 billion to $87 billion. Several outlets describe this as the third increase of the year.18

The main point of the quarter is in the price-and-volume breakdown. Worldwide volume rose 53% while realized prices fell 15%.4 In the U.S., volume grew 41% and prices fell 7%, a decline the company attributed mainly to Zepbound.1 Outside the U.S., volume jumped 76% and prices fell 29%.1 The market is no longer rewarding Lilly for holding prices up. It is rewarding Lilly for selling far more doses at much lower prices.

Where the coverage agrees, and where it doesn't

All the major write-ups agree that this was a clear beat. The size of the beat depends on which consensus you use. LSEG-based reporting put expectations at $6.26 in adjusted EPS and $22.61 billion in revenue, against actual results of $7.48 and $24.40 billion.9 Zacks compared the result with a $5.38 consensus.3 Another tally used $5.60 and $22.42 billion.6 Whichever baseline you pick, Lilly came in well ahead, but the gap between those estimates is a reminder that the headline "beat" depends on the yardstick.

The record-high figures also differ. One early report put the all-time high at $1,334.24 and the market cap near $1.15 trillion.18 Reuters cited a later peak of $1,408.34.11 The difference most likely reflects when each was written as the stock climbed during the session, not a factual dispute.

The more important disagreement is about quality. Lilly's own release says third-quarter revenue included about $900 million in benefits. Those were mainly $410 million in Jardiance milestone payments, with no further milestones remaining, plus favorable changes to rebate and discount estimates.1 On the call, management said that excluding the rebate adjustment, U.S. price fell 10% rather than 7%.6 The CFO also warned that about $2 billion of 2026 revenue came from one-time items that will not recur in 2027.23 Earnings Whispers framed the quarter as clearing consensus but missing the higher "whisper" number, with a $4.57-per-share acquired R&D charge masking the guidance increase.17 That charge also explains an apparent contradiction. Lilly raised revenue guidance but cut its full-year EPS range to $35–$36 from $35.50–$36.50, because deal costs tied to acquisitions such as AtaiBeckley and Curevo more than offset the underlying improvement.8

The market looked past those caveats. One portfolio manager said almost everything that could go right had gone right, while J.P. Morgan's Chris Schott kept Lilly as his top pick, citing upside outside the U.S. in particular.1116 My reading is that investors are right to focus on the underlying trend, but the one-time items mean the 2027 comparison will be tougher than Thursday's rally suggests.

Lower prices for weight-loss drugs are now the plan

For anyone following U.S. prescription drug prices, the quarter shows a strategy that has turned price cuts into market share. Under the White House agreement of November 2025, Zepbound's cash price fell from $1,086 to an average of about $346, and Medicare and Medicaid would pay $245 a month.26 In December 2025, Lilly cut LillyDirect vial prices to $299 for the starting dose and $449 for higher doses.26

The most important policy lever in this quarter was the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge. Since July 1, it has let eligible Part D enrollees get Wegovy, the Zepbound KwikPen or Foundayo for a $50 monthly copay, through December 31, 2027.25 Lilly said more than 500,000 people had filled prescriptions through the program and that seven in ten new Bridge patients chose a Lilly drug.23 Management named rapid uptake of the program as a key reason for strong U.S. sales.6

The Bridge also has costs. Analysts have warned that discounts given in a channel as large as Medicare can become a reference point, with insurers and pharmacy benefit managers pushing for similar terms elsewhere. That raises the question of whether Lilly is making a one-time trade to speed adoption or quietly resetting the price floor. BMO's Evan Seigerman acknowledged price erosion across the GLP-1 portfolio but argued that volume is more than offsetting it.16 Gabelli's Daniel Barasa said pricing outside Medicare looks resilient.16 The program is also temporary. Coverage after 2027 depends on a follow-on Medicare model whose launch has been delayed, and the $50 copay does not count toward Part D's out-of-pocket cap.25

The broader trend is that drugmakers are absorbing Washington's pricing pressure better than many expected. Bloomberg's headline on the day said drugmakers were shrugging off Trump's pricing pressure with record revenue.17 Lilly's agreement with the administration also reportedly exempts its GLP-1 drugs from the Medicaid most-favored-nation pricing arrangement.25

Commercial coverage is moving the other way. Employers are dropping coverage of GLP-1s for weight loss. Walmart, for example, will cover tirzepatide for diabetes at no cost starting in 2027 but exclude it from weight-loss benefits.24 Lilly sells Zepbound directly to employers for $449 a month. One purchaser-coalition representative said that price is not much below what many employers already paid after rebates.24 As a result, a growing share of demand is flowing through government programs and cash-pay channels instead of traditional insurance.

The pill that missed

The weak spot was Foundayo (orforglipron), Lilly's oral GLP-1. Third-quarter sales were $184 million, up from $98 million in the previous quarter.3 Analysts had expected about $229 million.8 One Wall Street Journal headline called the pill a weak spot in an otherwise strong quarter.17 Seigerman warned that a steep Foundayo miss would raise questions about how much Lilly's pricing and access efforts are actually adding to sales.16

The reason appears to be patient preference, not supply. In the second quarter, about 75% of new obesity starts were on injectables, and roughly 80% of patients in the Medicare pilot chose injections over pills.21 The $50 flat copay also erased the price advantage oral drugs had at launch, since patients pay the same amount whether they choose the more effective injection or the pill.21 Lilly says Foundayo is expanding the overall oral market and that international launches are on track.23 Clinical data could help. In the ACHIEVE-4 trial, the drug matched insulin glargine on cardiovascular safety while improving A1C and weight.12 For now, though, the pill is an expensive bet that the market has not fully embraced, and it is losing out to Lilly's own Zepbound.

Beyond obesity: cancer, Alzheimer's and the pipeline

Lilly CEO Dave Ricks highlighted that the company's newest oncology, immunology and neuroscience products doubled in revenue.1 Jaypirca, its cancer drug, posted $228 million in sales, up 59%.4 Earlier in October, the FDA approved Jaypirca as a first-line treatment for certain untreated patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma, broadening Lilly's oncology business beyond metabolic disease.12 Alzheimer's treatment Kisunla generated $193 million, ahead of the $175.2 million forecast, and Guggenheim's Seamus Fernandez said it is slowly moving toward blockbuster status.1116

In obesity, the next wave is lining up. Triple agonist retatrutide reported Phase 3 TRIUMPH-2 data that support a planned 2027 regulatory filing.13 EloraTZP, which combines eloralintide with tirzepatide, produced up to 23.3% weight loss in a mid-stage trial, though with more side effects than tirzepatide alone.20 Lilly says Phase 3 trials of a co-formulated version will begin soon.6

The bottom line

The consensus view, which I share, is that Lilly has become a high-volume business in a market where prices are falling. Its tirzepatide franchise is winning share fast enough to more than offset steep price declines. Its non-obesity products are finally contributing in a meaningful way. Approximately six in ten U.S. obesity incretin prescriptions, and more than seven in ten injectable ones, went to Lilly drugs.23 The open risks are the ones Thursday's rally ignored: about $2 billion in one-time revenue that will not repeat, a Medicare program set to end in 2027, employers pulling back on weight-loss coverage, and an oral drug that has yet to catch on. Lilly has the momentum, and 2027 will show whether the price cuts behind that growth leave its pricing power intact.