Canada Tariffs: Trump Swaps Maine Relief for New 50% Duties

What happened

On Friday, Oct. 23, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation that changes which Canadian goods face his 50% tariffs under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. Some goods come off the list, others go on, and the White House presents the result as a refinement of the program, not a reduction.5 According to the administration's fact sheet, plywood sheets, some paper products, certain machinery and refrigeration equipment, and some packing crates and boxes are being removed and replaced with "certain valves, carpets, waste products, and others."5 Both the removals and the additions take effect Oct. 30.5 That is four days before the Nov. 3 U.S. election.12

Sen. Susan Collins, the Maine Republican, announced the change first. She said she had won exemptions for nine categories of products that Maine's blueberry, potato, apple and seaweed producers depend on.16 Her statement did not say that new tariffs were coming in their place. The White House made that clear less than an hour later.12 The swap is broad. The six-page list of newly tariffed goods includes shampoo, cocoa powder products, window air conditioners, archery equipment and canoes under 7.5 metres long.2 Other reports add vinyl flooring, wooden coffins and yacht parts to the list.6

The news coverage mostly reads this as an election move, not a change in trade policy, and that reading looks right. Trade lawyer Barry Appleton put it this way: Washington "didn't lower the tariff wall," it "moved some bricks around."17

A reshuffle, not a retreat

All the reporting agrees on one point: total tariff pressure on Canada is not falling. A person familiar with the talks told Politico that the overall level of tariffs on Canadian goods would stay the same and simply be applied to different imports. Roughly 100 new product categories are being added.16 The Globe and Mail said the swap was designed to keep the total value of Canadian goods subject to the duties unchanged.4 KPMG Law trade lawyer Robert Glasgow said more items are going onto the list than are coming off.17

There is also a precedent. Collins earlier took credit for getting road salt and cement removed from the tariff list, and the White House added equivalent tariffs on other Canadian goods that time as well.4 So the pattern is consistent: a politically exposed Republican gets targeted relief, and the administration protects the overall size of its pressure campaign against Ottawa.

The White House described the change differently. Spokesman Matthew Middleton tied it to Trump's effort to "address Canada's discriminatory treatment of U.S. commerce."1 The fact sheet does not mention Maine.12 It says the changes "better serve the public interest" while still offsetting the harm from Canada's measures.15

Who pays: consumers and the shift in tariff costs

The swap changes who carries the cost. The goods being exempted are mostly inputs for farms and food processors. The exemption list covers corrugated paperboard boxes, plastic crates, packing sacks, refrigeration and freezing equipment, agricultural sorting machines, and packaging and labelling equipment.9 Collins said Maine's blueberry growers use specialized Canadian harvesting boxes that fit their existing processing equipment.2

Many of the newly tariffed goods are things households buy directly: shampoo, cocoa powder and window air conditioners.2 Chest freezers, soaps, paints and some electric hand tools are also on the list.9 U.S. importers usually pay tariffs when goods cross the border, so a 50% duty becomes a direct cost before the product reaches a farm, a distributor or a store shelf.9 One effect of the reshuffle is that some of the burden moves from Maine farm suppliers to American consumers in general, who are more spread out and less likely to notice.

The size of the change may be modest in the short run. Glasgow expects many of the newly listed items to have a "relatively small impact in the immediate term."17 Even so, Appleton saw a political lesson in the episode: tariffs have a "price ceiling," and Maine has found where it is. He added that a U.S. senator seeking re-election has to be able to lower them.17

The reshoring claim meets the supply-chain reality

The White House argues that tariffs on unfair trade practices push companies to move jobs and production back to the U.S. The fact sheet cites what it calls $21 trillion in total investments since Trump returned to office.5 Collins's case for the exemptions makes the opposite point. She said many Maine farmers rely on Canadian equipment and packaging that is "either unavailable from American suppliers or cannot be replaced without incurring significant expense."3

Her office gave a concrete example. A U.S. supplier of cardboard totes widely used in agriculture recently stopped making them, "leaving producers with no choice but to turn to Canada."2 In that case, the tariff did not bring production back to the U.S. It taxed a product with no domestic source. That is the main weakness in the reshoring argument for tightly linked North American supply chains. When a domestic alternative does not exist, a tariff raises costs and does little to change where things are made.

The USMCA question adds to the problem. The Section 338 duties apply whether or not a good qualifies under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and they are charged on top of Section 232 tariffs.5 That cuts against supply chains that were built on the expectation of duty-free trade within North America.9 The administration also said in July that it would not renew USMCA for another 16-year term.13

The numbers don't line up

Reports disagree on several basic figures, which shows how confused the trade fight has become.

• Scope of the U.S. tariffs. The Globe and Mail says the Section 338 duties cover $28 billion of Canadian goods.4 The Hindu puts the figure at about $20 billion, or 5.5% of Canadian exports to the U.S.
• Canada's retaliation. The White House says Canada put retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of U.S. exports.5 CTV reports Canadian counter-tariffs covering $27.6 billion of U.S. imports.17 The difference probably comes from counting different rounds of measures, but neither government has an interest in clearing it up.
• Count of products. Collins's office described nine categories.16 One detailed review of the tariff annex says 22 product categories were dropped and about 100 added.9
• "Largest trading partner." Collins called Canada America's largest trading partner.1 Census Bureau figures put Mexico ahead.1

The trade deficit is also disputed. The U.S. Trade Representative's office puts the goods deficit with Canada at $48.3 billion. CBC notes that much of it comes from U.S. refineries buying discounted Alberta oil, and that the U.S. regularly runs a surplus with Canada in services.2

Trade deal talk without a deal

On the same day, Trump said the U.S. is "very close" to deals with both Mexico and Canada, and claimed Washington holds "all the cards."8 Ottawa's response was cooler. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada could sign "this afternoon" if the U.S. were ready. He also said Canada would wait months, or even for "another administration," to get a proper deal.17 Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc's office said Canada would assess the new measures and remains ready to work in good faith.17

CTV reports that Canadian officials have not ruled out a quick deal before the midterms but consider it unlikely. The two sides' accounts of the breakdown also differ. The White House says Canada "walked away from a near-final trade deal" this summer.5 NBC describes Canada as having withdrawn from negotiations in late August.14 Trump has meanwhile escalated in other areas. Import bans on most Canadian alcohol, some dairy products and motorcycles began Sept. 29, and Trump has threatened higher auto and steel tariffs starting Jan. 1, 2027.8

The legal footing is also uncertain. On Oct. 20, the New Jersey food importer Gellert Global Group sued in the Court of International Trade. It argues that Section 338 is an outdated retaliation statute that later trade laws have effectively repealed, and that retaliation by Canada is not the same as discrimination.13 Gellert says it now pays about $40 million a year in duties on Canadian cheese that previously came in duty-free under USMCA.13 Because the White House keeps adjusting the tariff list under this same law, any ruling against it could affect the whole program.

The politics

The election connection is hard to overlook. Collins's Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson, has built his campaign around the trade war.2 He said Collins should be blamed for enabling the tariffs, not credited for "bringing a cup of water to put out the fire."1 When she cited the earlier road salt exemption in a debate, he replied, "We can't eat road salt."1 NBC called Friday's exemptions an implicit admission that the tariffs could be hurting Republican candidates.14 CTV analyst Eric Ham described the move as "all about politics."17

Ontario Premier Doug Ford's response was short: "Now get rid of the rest."4 That is unlikely soon. Friday's proclamation shows the administration will give targeted relief where the politics require it, while keeping the 50% tariff structure, and the legal authority behind it, in place.9 For Maine farmers the change brings real relief. For the overall trade war it changes little, since the burden has only been moved onto other goods.