Apple EPS Estimate Raised by Erste to $9.57 for Fiscal 2027

A one-cent revision that says more about direction than size

Erste Group Bank has nudged its earnings forecast for Apple higher once again. In a note dated Thursday, October 8, analyst H. Engel lifted the bank's fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share estimate for the iPhone maker to $9.57, up from $9.56.14 It is the second consecutive one-cent bump. In a September 18 report, Engel had moved the same figure from $9.55 to $9.56.35

On their own, these revisions barely register. A penny on a near-$10 annual EPS figure is a rounding adjustment, not a change of thesis. Still, the direction counts. Erste is now well above the market's numbers, and it keeps edging further out at a time when other analysts are trimming near-term volume assumptions and pointing to cost pressures. The bank appears to be betting that Apple's earnings power over the next two years will hold up despite those pressures.

The headline comparisons need one correction. Several reports set Erste's $9.57 against a "consensus estimate for Apple's current full-year earnings" of $8.75.124 That consensus covers the current fiscal year, while Erste's number is for fiscal 2027, so the gap of roughly 80 cents mostly reflects a year of expected growth rather than unusual optimism from Erste. A separate tally put the current-year consensus at $8.76 on about $479 billion in revenue, which is essentially the same figure.28 The fair conclusion is that Erste expects solid growth into fiscal 2027, not that it disagrees with the Street on the current year.

The quarter that set up the revisions

The revisions build on a strong fiscal third quarter. For the period ended June 27, 2026, Apple reported revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16% from a year earlier, and diluted EPS of $2.02, up 29%.21 Management called it the company's strongest June quarter ever, with double-digit growth in iPhone, Mac and Services and in every geographic segment.21

The main numbers are consistent across outlets, but the details vary. MarketBeat-syndicated coverage measured the beat against a $1.89 EPS consensus and $109.04 billion in expected revenue.24 MarketBeat's own earnings-night report used a $1.88 consensus, putting the beat at 14 cents.25 Shacknews cited a revenue expectation of $108.79 billion and a $1.97 "whisper number."27 Zacks reported earnings of $1.91 per share against its own $1.88 consensus, a much smaller 1.6% surprise.28 The likely reason for the Zacks figure is tariffs. Apple disclosed that its reported EPS included an $0.11 benefit from tariff refunds, and subtracting that from $2.02 gives exactly $1.91.21

That detail matters for the bull case. Gross margin of 50.1% got about two percentage points of help from the same tariff refunds.21 MarketBeat flagged that benefit as possibly one-time.25 Without it, the quarter still beat estimates, but by much less than the $2.02 figure suggests. The underlying business was clearly healthy, but less of the profit beat came from operations than the reported number implies.

Where the quarter was uneven

By segment, iPhone revenue rose 22% to about $54.25 billion, ahead of estimates, and Mac revenue reached $10.35 billion against an $8.74 billion forecast.23 Services was the weak spot. It grew to $30.74 billion but missed expectations of $31.22 billion, and iPad also fell short.2327 The services miss was a main reason shares fell roughly 3% to 4% in after-hours trading despite the overall beat.23 Net income rose to $29.79 billion from $23.43 billion a year earlier.23

The longer trend still favors Apple. In the March quarter, revenue rose 17% to $111.2 billion, EPS of $2.01 beat forecasts, and iPhone sales grew 22%.2224 Apple also guided June-quarter growth of 14% to 17%, while analysts had expected about 9.5%.22 It then delivered 16%, inside that range.21 Zacks noted that Apple has beaten consensus EPS and revenue estimates in each of the last four quarters.28 A run like that gives analysts such as Engel reason to inch estimates up rather than down.

The guidance problem

The current quarter looks less clean. Apple guided September-quarter revenue growth to slow to 9% to 11%. It cited a foreign-exchange headwind of roughly 2.5 percentage points and worsening supply constraints tied to limited capacity at advanced chip-manufacturing nodes.25 The implied range of $111.7 billion to $113.7 billion fell below a consensus of about $114.3 billion.25 Apple also warned that memory prices would keep rising in the September quarter and beyond.25

Memory costs had already appeared in the March quarter. CFO Kevan Parekh attributed a 200-basis-point sequential drop in products gross margin partly to higher memory costs.26 At the same time, research and development spending rose 33% year over year to $11.42 billion, well ahead of revenue growth. Tim Cook tied the increase partly to AI.22

This mix explains why Erste's increases are so small. Demand looks strong, but supply limits, component inflation and heavier investment all weigh on margins. An analyst who believes the long-term story but sees costs rising in the near term would raise estimates by a penny, not by a dime.

Price targets: bullish, but with little room left

The price-target picture tells a similar story. JPMorgan's Samik Chatterjee raised his target to $360 from $340 and kept an Overweight rating. He argued that reported supplier cuts reflect Apple's new launch schedule rather than weaker demand.12 The iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max and iPhone Duo launched this fall, while the base models will follow in the spring.12 Chatterjee expects December-quarter iPhone shipments of 69 million units, down 18% year over year, with average selling prices up about 20%. He also put December-quarter EPS at $2.81, about 4% below the $2.92 consensus.12 In his view, this cycle is driven by price, not volume.12

Reports differ on when the JPMorgan note came out. Benzinga and others date it to October 12.1218 A German outlet later gave October 14.13 GuruFocus listed October 1.15 The October 12 date has the most consistent support. Bank of America's analysts reiterated a Buy rating and a $370 target. They described SpaceX's Starlink Mobile ambitions as a risk to Apple's valuation multiple rather than to near-term earnings, with any real impact unlikely before fiscal 2028.12

Not every move has been upward. Morgan Stanley trimmed its target to $355 from $360 on October 1.18 DA Davidson holds a Neutral rating with a $270 target.5 China Renaissance cut its rating to Hold with a $280 target.16 MarketBeat's tally shows one Strong Buy, 25 Buys, 14 Holds and two Sells, with an average target of $340.39 and a "Moderate Buy" consensus.116

The stock has already reached that average. Shares opened at $340.97 on October 13.4 One report cited a Nasdaq quote of $346.58 later that day, close to a 52-week high of $348.15.20 Apple trades at about 39 times earnings with a market value near $5 trillion.120 GuruFocus's own fair-value model puts the shares about 18% above intrinsic value.15 On the consensus figures, most of the upside analysts expect has already been realized, so the higher targets from JPMorgan and BofA set the case for further gains.

What to watch

Reports also disagree on the next earnings date. MarketBeat coverage pointed to October 29.1 German market coverage cited November 2.1320 Whichever date is right, the questions are the same. First, can Apple meet or beat its 9% to 11% growth guidance despite chip and memory constraints? Second, does Services growth recover after the June miss? Third, does gross margin hold up once the tariff-refund benefit is gone? Investors also face a leadership change: John Ternus was set to succeed Tim Cook as CEO on September 1.23

Insider selling adds to the caution. Cook sold 191,753 shares at about $332.96 on October 2, a sale worth roughly $63.8 million, and SVP Jennifer Newstead sold a smaller block days later.2 Executive sales are often routine, but they come with the stock near its highs.

Erste's repeated one-cent revisions fit the wider picture. Analysts broadly expect Apple to keep growing earnings, but few see room for big upward revisions at the current valuation. Their small, steady increases suggest they think the iPhone 18 cycle, driven by price rather than volume, can absorb cost pressures. The coming quarter will show whether Apple's guidance supports that view.