A-Share Q3 Profit Previews: Three Firms Guide Above 500% Growth

A new batch of forecasts, led by three companies

On the evening of October 13, another group of mainland-listed companies released preliminary results for the first nine months of 2026. Three of them said net profit would rise more than fivefold from a year earlier.1122 Fuchun Dyeing & Weaving had the largest increase. It expects nine-month net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 338 million to RMB 378 million, up 1,348% to 1,519%.1121 SigmaStar Technology (Xingchen Technology) forecast RMB 1.543 billion to RMB 1.613 billion, up 663% to 698%. Baoding Technology guided to RMB 330 million to RMB 370 million, up roughly 537% to 614%.22

The same evening, larger companies filed less dramatic but still strong forecasts. Inspur Information expects nine-month profit of RMB 3.8 billion to RMB 4.1 billion, up about 156% to 177%. Xingsen Technology guided to growth of 204% to 227%. Qinghai Salt Lake Industry expects RMB 8.84 billion to RMB 9.05 billion, up about 88% to 92%.1122

In this week's disclosures, the eye-catching growth rates matter less than how much each company's third quarter grew over the second.

Why the three leaders grew so fast

The three companies at the top of the list got there in different ways.

Fuchun says it has deepened its full-industry-chain strategy and that its smart factory is now running at full effect. The company says energy use and costs per unit fell sharply, while output, sales volumes and prices all rose.2132 Backing out the first half, its third-quarter profit is estimated at RMB 158 million to RMB 198 million. That compares with RMB 106 million in the second quarter, a sequential gain of 48% to 86%.11

Baoding has two sources of growth. Its controlled subsidiary Jinbao Electronics turned profitable in copper-clad laminate (CCL) and electronic copper foil as volumes and prices rose. Its Hexi gold mine also sold gold at higher prices because international bullion stayed elevated.36 Third-quarter profit of roughly RMB 194 million to RMB 234 million would be about triple the RMB 70 million earned in the second quarter.24 For a fivefold-plus grower, that sequential jump is the strongest sign that conditions are still improving rather than leveling off.

SigmaStar's case rests most clearly on fundamentals because it also gave revenue figures. It expects nine-month revenue of RMB 4.538 billion to RMB 4.608 billion, up about 109% to 113%. Third-quarter revenue is forecast at RMB 1.88 billion to RMB 1.95 billion, up 146% to 156% year on year.19 Third-quarter net profit should be RMB 680 million to RMB 750 million, only 5% to 16% above the second quarter's RMB 643 million. However, profit after non-recurring items is expected to rise 34% to 48% sequentially.1922 The company says both shipments and average selling prices rose, and it credits edge AI SoCs and a new form of compute board.19 One outlet pointed out that the forecast gives no segment or gross-margin breakdown. Judging the quality of the growth will have to wait for the full report.23

Inspur and the problem with sequential comparisons

Inspur's forecast is where the coverage disagrees most. One report said third-quarter profitability continued the trend of the first half and treated the filing as further evidence of AI-server demand.31 Another outlet called the same filing "sudden bad news." It calculated third-quarter profit at RMB 848 million to RMB 1.148 billion, down 51% to 63% from RMB 2.347 billion in the second quarter.29 That report also noted that third-quarter profit still appears to be about 53% higher than a year earlier, based on its own estimate of last year's figure. It suggested that more customers building their own compute, and domestic chips maturing, could be changing demand for server makers.29

The sequential numbers support the more cautious reading. Inspur's first-half revenue rose only 5.22% to RMB 84.38 billion, while profit jumped nearly 270%. Servers made up 92.5% of revenue.31 When most of the profit growth comes from margins rather than volume, a quarter like this one deserves close attention. Some tech outlets carried an automated note calling the forecast "above general market expectations," but they cited no consensus figure to support it.3334 Inspur's own shares were down 7.38% for the year as of October 13, which suggests investors had already discounted some of the peak-margin risk.31

Salt Lake shows the same pattern in a commodity business. Nine-month growth near 90% hides a third quarter that is forecast to fall 8% to 14% from the second.11

The broader preview season: two main sources of growth

The October 13 filings add to a steady run of upbeat disclosures. On October 9, Tonghuashun (iFinD) data showed that 37 of 56 companies issuing nine-month forecasts were positive, or 66%.1 A Securities Times tally put the share at 30 of 41, or 73%.3 Wind data counted 30 positive forecasts among 37 companies, more than 80%.4 The differences come mainly from different databases and definitions. Every count, though, shows a clear majority of positive forecasts in a small early sample. By October 13, 70 companies had published third-quarter reports or forecasts, and 17 of them showed nine-month profit above RMB 1 billion.5

Coverage broadly agrees on two sources of growth. The first is the AI hardware supply chain, including printed circuit boards (PCBs), liquid cooling and high-speed optical modules. The second is cyclical industries benefiting from higher product prices.412 The AI chain supplied the most spectacular numbers. Optical-chip test equipment maker Lianxun Instruments forecast nine-month profit up 1,866% to 2,073%. Its implied third-quarter profit of RMB 1.33 billion to RMB 1.53 billion is larger than its whole first half.828 Kinwong Electronic expects third-quarter profit to rise 205% to 265%, driven by high-performance PCBs for AI data infrastructure.4 Xingsen and Baoding fit the same story: Xingsen cited higher volumes and prices in packaging substrates, and Baoding cited demand for CCL.1136

On the cyclical side, Shenhuo expects nine-month profit of RMB 7.4 billion, up 112%, helped by higher aluminum and coal prices.5 China Jushi forecast a 100% to 110% increase because fiberglass volumes and prices both rose.4 Guanghui Energy pointed to a higher average selling price for its main products.9

Base effects make some growth rates misleading

Some headline growth rates mean very little. Dongyue Silicon Materials, the season's "pre-increase king" with nine-month growth of up to 19,748%, is being compared with 2025. That year a July fire left the company with only RMB 2.86 million in profit for the period. The company itself says the two periods cannot be compared.1 Its third-quarter profit is forecast to fall 41% to 49% from the second quarter.9 Even the news coverage had trouble with the number: one widely shared headline said the increase was "19-fold" instead of more than 190-fold.10

Fuchun's fifteenfold gain is likewise measured against a small base. In companies like these, the sequential trend shows more about current conditions than the year-on-year multiple.

Analyst estimates, price targets and stock reactions

The filings came with almost no published analyst consensus figures or price-target changes. As a result, investors cannot yet tell whether these companies actually beat expectations, and that is the main gap in the coverage. The clearest institutional view came from CITIC Securities before the season started. It argued that the September pullback had eased valuation pressure in high-growth sectors. It recommended AI hardware, where earnings are relatively predictable, along with industrial metals, coal, oil and gas, and basic chemicals.38

Share prices have so far reacted modestly to strong numbers. SigmaStar closed down 3.97% on October 13 before its filing. The stock was still up about 84% for the year after pulling back from a late-September high.1923 Baoding closed at RMB 41.64, more than 152% higher for the year but well below the RMB 70-plus it reached in June.24 An early-October screen showed that many forecast leaders, including Dongyue and Chipmore (XinLian Integrated), had fallen since July, and several had net outflows of large-order money.3 Taken together, these moves suggest that much of the good news was priced in before the filings.

What to watch next

These forecasts show that profits in China's AI hardware supply chain are still growing quickly. CCL, PCB, optical and edge-chip suppliers are mostly reporting faster sequential growth. Meanwhile, the largest server assembler and some commodity producers already show quarterly profits falling from the second quarter. Formal third-quarter reports, running through late October, will show whether results land at the top or bottom of the forecast ranges and give the first indication of fourth-quarter orders.1238 Investors should read the nine-month growth rates with that in mind: the strongest companies are the ones whose quarter-on-quarter profits are still rising.