Wisconsin Unemployment Rises in 51 Counties as Wage Gains Weaken

A slow, statewide climb

Wisconsin's labor market didn't fall apart this summer. It got a little looser almost everywhere at once. Preliminary July 2026 local figures released by the state Department of Workforce Development (DWD) show unemployment higher than a year earlier in 12 of the state's 13 metropolitan areas. Fond du Lac was the only metro area where the rate didn't change.18 The pattern was similar in cities. Rates rose year over year in 26 of the state's 35 largest municipalities, fell in four and held steady in five.8 Among the 72 counties, 51 had higher rates than in July 2025, 10 had lower rates and 11 were unchanged.8

None of these increases is large, and that is the point. The statewide seasonally adjusted rate stayed at 3.3% in July, unchanged from June but up from 3.0% a year earlier.29 That rate is still well below the national figure of 4.1%.2 What stands out in the local data is how widespread the drift is. When almost every metro area and more than two-thirds of counties move the same way, the cause is probably statewide rather than one struggling plant or one weak region.

Month to month, things looked calmer

The local outlets that covered the release focused on different parts of the same data. The month-to-month view looks much milder than the year-over-year one. Between June and July, eight metro areas held steady, four improved and only Appleton went up, to 3.1%.1 Nineteen large cities saw rates fall that month, while 10 saw increases.8 Counties split almost evenly: 22 rose, 25 fell and 25 didn't change.8

That difference explains why the headlines varied. A Sheboygan radio station said rates mostly rose in cities and metro areas, though usually only by fractions of a point, and called county results fairly evenly divided.4 The Watertown Daily Times said county rates moved with no consistent pattern, though it added that unemployment was up statewide compared with last year.6 Beloit's paper called the picture "mixed."9 Green Bay's WBAY said the annual trend pointed to a tightening labor market.1 Economists usually use "tightening" for a market where jobs get harder to fill, not easier to lose, so rising unemployment is better described as a market that is loosening. The underlying numbers match across all of these reports. The disagreement is about whether to read July as a quiet month or as one more step in a year of decline.

The annual comparison is the better guide. Monthly local estimates are preliminary, not seasonally adjusted and noisy. The share of places that are worse off than a year ago is much harder to wave away.

Where the pain is concentrated

The geography shows familiar inequalities. Milwaukee-Waukesha had the highest metro rate at 3.8%. Madison had the lowest at 2.9%. Appleton, Fond du Lac, La Crosse-Onalaska and Sheboygan were tied at 3.1%.1 Among cities, Milwaukee was highest at 4.9%, followed by Racine at 4.6% and Beloit at 4.4%. Fitchburg was lowest at 2.6%.19 Beloit's rate rose from 4.2% in June but matched its level of a year earlier.9

In the counties, Lafayette again had the lowest rate in the state at 2.5%, only a tenth of a point above July 2025.8 Clark and Dodge were next at 2.7%.1 The reports disagree about which county was highest. WBAY put Menominee County at 7.6%.1 The Beloit Daily News put Menominee at 5.6% in July, up from 4.8% in June but down from 7.6% a year earlier.9 DWD's own county map lists a July range of 2.5% to 5.6%. That supports the Beloit figure and suggests the 7.6% number was last year's rate. Even at 5.6%, Menominee had the highest rate in the state, and the county's figure jumped sharply in a single month.

The rural north and parts of central Wisconsin also stand out. Iron and Adams counties were among the highest-unemployment counties in WBAY's tally.1 County data for June listed Burnett, Douglas, Rusk, Marinette and Price near the top as well.3 Some places with mostly stable local economies barely moved. Jefferson County's 2.9% was identical to July 2025, and Dodge County was up just a tenth of a point.6 The Watertown paper noted that federal figures leave out on-farm jobs, so they may show less of the full employment picture in heavily agricultural areas.6

Jobs data and wage data point the same way

The local unemployment figures carry more weight alongside the other numbers that came out this summer. DWD's state report gave two very different employment measures. By the household count, Wisconsin had 3,036,800 people employed in July, up 26,500 from a year earlier. The separate count of nonfarm payroll jobs was 3,042,900, up just 1,200 from June.2 Labor force participation stayed at 64.5%, more than three points above the national rate.2

The payroll number is the more troubling one. The State of Working Wisconsin 2026, the annual report from UW-Madison's High Road Strategy Center, noted that Wisconsin reached a record 3,051,000 jobs in November 2024 and has slipped since, to that July total of 3,042,900.16 The report says the state has been losing jobs since 2025 and that job growth "has ground to a halt." It warns that unemployment will probably keep rising if the losses continue.16 It also says the jobless rate has been drifting up from a low of 2.6% in 2023.16 The center describes itself as left-leaning, but its job count matches the official payroll figure.162

The wage picture follows a similar path. The report found Wisconsin's median wage hit a record $26.17 an hour in 2025.16 That record looks backward. Full 2026 wage data aren't available yet, but the report calls the early signs troubling. It says inflation has risen while wage gains have slowed, and that this year's raises could be wiped out much as they were in 2022.16

Put together, the trend is clear. Wages are tied to how hard employers are competing for workers. When unemployment creeps up in 51 counties and payrolls stall, that competition weakens, and pay growth usually slows a few quarters later. The record median wage reflects the tight market of 2023 and 2024. The July county data show the market that will shape pay in 2027.

Who absorbs the slowdown

The High Road report argues that a loosening labor market doesn't affect everyone equally. It says the Black unemployment rate in Wisconsin reached 7.2% in the first quarter of 2026, matching the national rate, while the rate for white residents was 2.3%.16 When the job market was strongest in 2023, that gap narrowed. Since then, Black unemployment has risen much faster than the overall rate.16 That fits the July city figures, where Milwaukee and Racine, two of the state's most racially diverse cities, had the highest rates.1 That link is an inference. The local release doesn't break results down by race.

Policy also limits pay at the bottom. Wisconsin's minimum wage is still $7.25 an hour. The report estimates that raising it to $20 by 2030 would increase pay for more than 730,000 workers, and notes that most neighboring states have moved well beyond the federal minimum.16 Union membership has also dropped sharply, from 14% in 2011 to 7.5% in 2025. Labor leaders point to Act 10 as a cause. With fewer workers covered by contracts and a minimum wage that hasn't changed in years, a weaker job market can hold down pay more directly than it would in states with stronger wage floors.

Layoffs are small, but they add up

The layoff notices don't show a wave. They show steady attrition. In July, six companies notified the state of layoffs affecting 353 workers.10 They included a School Specialty facility in Fort Atkinson, two Prairie Farms dairy sites in Shullsburg, a Milwaukee home-care provider that called its operating model financially unsustainable, and a Thermo Fisher site in Middleton that the company says will eventually close completely.10 DWD's chief economist, Scott Hodek, has argued that the state's deeper problem is still too few workers. He points to aging Baby Boomers leaving the workforce as a driver of both labor shortages and health-care hiring.10

Hodek's point and the rising rates can both be true. A shrinking supply of workers helps keep Wisconsin's unemployment rate low even as hiring cools. That is why the statewide rate looks healthy while payrolls go nowhere.

What comes next

August brought slight relief. The statewide seasonally adjusted rate dipped to 3.2%, though that was still above the 3.1% recorded in August 2025.135 The national rate stayed at 4.1%.13 Wisconsin's next state release is scheduled for October 20.14

The July data don't point to a recession in Wisconsin. They point to slow erosion: a labor market that has passed its peak, payrolls stuck below their 2024 high, and unemployment rising by tenths of a point in most of the state. The 2025 wage record may turn out to be the high point of this cycle, unless hiring picks up or inflation cools before the 2026 wage data come out.