US Travel Spending Rises as Americans Protect Vacation Budgets

Americans keep booking trips, but on new terms

Americans are holding on to their vacations even as the cost of getting there has jumped. The clearest sign comes from MMGY Global's 2026 Portrait of American Travelers "Fall Edition." Respondents now expect to spend $5,655 on leisure travel over the next 12 months and take an average of 3.9 vacations. Both figures rose from the summer edition of the same survey.12 In the summer, Americans had planned 3.5 trips and $5,570 in spending over the following year. The spending gain is therefore real but small. The bigger change is in how many trips people intend to take.20

The survey drew on interviews with 4,500 U.S. adults. It found that travelers are protecting their trips by giving things up elsewhere rather than cancelling. About 35% say they are traveling in off-peak periods, and 32% say they are cutting other spending to keep their vacation budgets intact.11 Cost is also pushing people toward domestic trips: 64% of respondents named lower expense as a reason to stay inside the country.13 Simon Moriarty, MMGY's vice president of syndicated research, said Americans are becoming more strategic about timing, spending and what they think is worth paying for.18

The headline numbers look upbeat. Read alongside price data and other consumer surveys, they point to something narrower: Americans want to travel, but fewer of them can afford it, and the spending totals rest more and more on wealthier households and higher prices.

The forecast: record dollars, thin real growth

The U.S. Travel Association's spring forecast set the frame for the year. It projected record total travel spending of $1.37 trillion in 2026, rising to $1.42 trillion in 2027.22 Adjusted for inflation, though, growth this year was forecast at only about 1%, before picking up to roughly 3% in 2027 and 2028.21 Domestic travel makes up 87% of the total at $1.20 trillion. Domestic leisure spending was projected to rise 0.9% to $909 billion, and leisure is the only segment above 2019 levels in real terms.21

The forecast was also unusually direct about who is doing the spending. It said higher-income households are driving travel spending and expected travelers to move toward shorter, cheaper trips, including regional and drive-to destinations.21 Trade coverage at the time said gas prices tied to the war with Iran, plus the wider cost of living, would push lower-income travelers toward fewer or shorter trips.24 The association listed long-lasting high energy prices, a drawn-out Middle East conflict and weak consumer sentiment as major risks to its outlook.21

Several of those risks have since come true, and the industry still has not stalled. That backs the association's view that travel holds up well. It also backs the warning built into that view.

Summer brought higher spending and fewer travelers

U.S. Travel's September data snapshot showed what the summer looked like. Total travel spending in June and July ran 6% above the same months of 2025, at more than $120 billion a month. Domestic air travel volumes fell 2.6% between June 1 and August 31.17 The association's own summary was that spending is rising while volumes soften and growth concentrates at the top of the market.17

Deloitte's summer survey showed the same split from the consumer side. Only 45% of Americans planned a summer vacation with paid lodging, the lowest share in six years. Those who did travel planned to spend an average of $4,069 on their longest trip, up 17%.29 Households earning at least $100,000 rose to 55% of summer travelers, up from 50% in 2025.28

Skift Research, writing in mid-October, said revenue growth now depends more on higher prices and a smaller group of affluent travelers than on rising volumes.10 That fits the data better than the "resilient vacation" framing does. Travel is resilient for people who can still afford it. For many others it is shrinking.

Airfares drove the price surge

Airfare has been the main source of the price pressure. Federal inflation data showed U.S. airline fares up 20.7% year over year in April, the first time in several years they had risen more than 20%. Coverage linked the jump to oil above $100 a barrel after the Middle East conflict began.1 By May the annual increase had reached 26.7%. Major carriers had reported in April that their fuel costs were up more than 10% from a year earlier.4 Fare inflation stayed above 20% all summer: 26.5% in June, 25.5% in July and 23.4% in August.5 Skift reported jet fuel prices running 52% above the previous year.10

The pressure is now reaching the holiday season. Hopper's September holiday index, as reported, puts average domestic round-trip fares at $402 for Thanksgiving, up 31%, and $452 for Christmas, up 23%.6 The same coverage cited PwC's holiday outlook: 40% of consumers plan to travel over the winter holidays, down from 44% last year, and planned per-person travel spending has fallen from $553 to $419.6 Those holiday figures cut against MMGY's rising spending expectations. They suggest the strength in fall intentions may not fully carry into the most expensive weeks of the year.

Hotel rates: a smaller rise, and the reports disagree

Hotel prices have risen far less than airfares, and the coverage does not agree on how much. Government data showed hotel prices up 4.3% year over year in April.1 In late May, HotelPlanner CEO Tim Hentschel said hotel construction was not keeping pace with demand. He cited the same 4.3% increase in Bureau of Labor Statistics lodging prices.7 The New York Times reported hotel rates up about 5% in May and noted that World Cup demand may have contributed.4

Later data showed that increase fading. Hotel and motel inflation peaked at 5.1% in May and slowed to 2.9% by August. One analysis warned that setting the May hotel figure beside the August airfare figure makes the picture look worse than it is.5 On the industry side, CoStar and Tourism Economics raised their 2026 U.S. RevPAR (revenue per available room) forecast to 4.4%, driven by room rates rather than occupancy. Inflation-adjusted gross operating profit per room is still below 2019 levels.10

The holiday reporting is the outlier. Coverage of Hopper's index cites an 18% annual rise in nightly hotel rates, which is far above the government figures.6 The most likely explanation is that peak-date booking prices behave differently from monthly price indexes. Earlier analysis noted that hotels increasingly charge their highest rates only on nights they expect to sell out, so quarterly averages can hide much sharper spikes around events and holidays.3 For travelers, that means hotel inflation looks modest on average but can be steep on the dates they actually want.

Many still want to go, but fewer are booking

Longwoods International's September tracking study shows how cost pressure and strong demand now sit side by side. Three-quarters of travelers said travel is becoming too expensive, up from 64% a year earlier. Yet 81% said vacations are among the things they look forward to most each year, and 55% said they would cut other spending to pay for trips.14 Plans have slipped slightly, though: 87% reported trips planned within the next six months, down from 93% last October.14

The age divide in MMGY's data adds to the picture. Baby Boomers expect to spend $8,796 on travel over the next year, more than four times the $2,195 expected by Gen Z.12 Part of that gap reflects where each generation is in life. Together with Deloitte's income data, it shows that travel spending is concentrated among older and wealthier consumers.28

MMGY's other findings show where demand is holding up. Interest in outdoor trips and state and national parks stayed steady while several other travel motivations weakened.13 Half of leisure travelers (51%) have used AI to plan a trip, but only 4% rank it among their first three planning steps.13

Higher totals, fewer travelers

Across the coverage, the travel economy of late 2026 is producing bigger totals with a narrower base of travelers. Every measure agrees that Americans want to keep traveling. The surveys show demand holding and travelers shifting dates, destinations and household budgets to make trips work.1114 The price and volume data show that much of the gain in spending is inflation, especially in airfares, and that fewer people are flying.517

That split decides who wins. Drive-to destinations, off-peak periods and premium segments are positioned to do well. Airlines and hotels that depend on price-sensitive middle-income travelers have less room to keep raising prices. U.S. Travel has described its main question for the rest of 2026 as whether consumers turn strong demand into actual trips despite higher costs and uneven household finances.17 Based on the holiday data, many will try, and a growing share will decide to stay home.