Sybiha's 'Cards' Remark Shows Ukraine's Refinery Strikes as Leverage

From 'no cards' to 'don't play them'

Ukraine's foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, used one line at the Warsaw Security Forum to describe how far his country's bargaining position has come. In less than two years, he said, Ukraine went from being told it had no cards to being told not to play them, and he called that an achievement.12 He said it on October 13 during a panel called "What Comes After the Liberal World Order?" at the forum's 13th edition.3

The line answers Donald Trump directly. The US president has said more than once that Volodymyr Zelenskyy "doesn't have the cards" and has called himself Ukraine's only real trump card.1 Zelenskyy has argued the opposite since at least March, saying the Ukrainian military and the defence industries built since the full-scale invasion now give Kyiv real leverage.1

How Sybiha framed it matters as much as the quote itself. He presented the change as a lesson learned, not a victory.4 He also said realism is the only ideology that still works in today's international order.1 Put simply, he was telling a room of European defence officials that Ukraine now has something Washington wants it to hold back, and that this gives Kyiv bargaining power whether its partners like it or not.

What the 'cards' actually are

The reporting leaves little doubt about the cards in question: Ukraine's long-range drone campaign against Russian oil refineries. According to Reuters estimates from mid-September, drone attacks had forced three of Russia's six biggest diesel producers to cut output sharply or stop altogether.20 Vortexa data showed Russian seaborne diesel and gasoil exports in September fell 28% from August, to 144,000 barrels a day. That was the lowest level in more than ten years of its records, though Moscow's own export limits also contributed.30

Washington's reaction shows how much those strikes count. On October 9, Trump announced a deal with Vladimir Putin. Russia would release more than 300,000 tons of diesel to US and world markets right away, followed by 500,000 tons in November and another million tons after that.21 The Kyiv Post reports the plan rests on a temporary US sanctions authorization running to April 2027.30 NBC News reports Trump has blamed the war in Ukraine for record diesel prices, though the global fuel squeeze began when the US launched its war against Iran in February.31

The pressure did not stop at the deal. In Miami talks, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly warned Ukrainian negotiators that Washington could stop sharing intelligence if Kyiv kept striking Russian energy targets. A person familiar with the talks told Reuters the US had also raised limits on weapons purchases through the PURL mechanism.4 Trump then said Ukraine should find "a new leader who can make a deal."31 This is the context for Sybiha's remark: "don't play your cards" is close to a literal summary of what Washington is asking for.

Germany breaks with Washington

The clearest European answer came from Berlin. Chancellor Friedrich Merz said following the diesel deal was "out of the question for Germany and Europe." He argued that Russia negotiates seriously only under pressure and that sanctions should be tightened, not relaxed.21 He said Zelenskyy could still count on German and European support.21 He also noted that Russia kept hitting Ukraine's civilian energy system after Trump announced an "energy ceasefire."29

The German Foreign Ministry said the same in sharper terms. Deputy spokesperson Josef Hinterseher said it was exactly the moment to raise pressure on Moscow, after one of the deadliest weeks of the year for Ukrainian civilians, with more than 150 killed.23 Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, also speaking in Warsaw, criticized the diesel deal. He said his meeting with Sergey Lavrov in New York last month convinced him Russia has no interest in a ceasefire.28 Many Germans had asked why Berlin was not talking to Moscow, he said. Now it had, and the result was "very dire."28 Wadephul believes Putin thinks dragging the war through the winter is his easier path, and he urged the West to answer with tougher sanctions. He also called on China to use its influence on Moscow.28

This is a notable position for a German government to take. On energy, Berlin has usually followed others rather than set the pace. Here, Germany is openly refusing to follow Washington on a Russian energy concession. That is a real break, not a difference in tone. Merz still said Europe remains in contact with the US on a shared approach to ending the war.30

The position carries domestic risk. Merz's CDU has lost ground in several recent state elections, including failing to enter the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern legislature for the first time. Merz has promised faster reforms, including measures to cut energy prices.29 Some German opposition voices have reportedly called for Berlin to make its own diesel deal with Moscow.25 Holding firm on sanctions while voters struggle with high fuel costs is a test of whether Berlin's security commitments can survive economic pain at home.

Europe's broader response, and where it differs

Most of Europe lined up with Berlin, but not all in the same way. The EU's Foreign Affairs Council in Luxembourg adopted its largest single expansion of Russia sanctions listings. The Kyiv Post counts 1,569 individuals and entities, including 826 companies and 743 executives, and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says more than half are linked to ballistic missile production.30 Before the meeting, Ukrainska Pravda had reported that ministers were expected to approve 1,646 listings.12 The gap between the two figures is one sign of how quickly the details were changing.

Ireland's Helen McEntee called the deal concerning but said cooperation with the US remains essential. Sweden's Maria Malmer Stenergard said she hoped it would never take effect. Estonia's Margus Tsahkna tied it to US midterm politics.30 Kallas also spotted a structural problem. A truce limited to refineries would favour Russia, whose refining network is far larger than Ukraine's.30 That helps explain why Kyiv treats its strike capability as leverage to trade only for something in return, ideally a two-way halt to attacks on energy infrastructure.

The mood in Warsaw was clear. The Washington Times reports that when a moderator asked whether anyone in the hall would defend the diesel deal, no one raised a hand.36 Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that anyone who treats Russia and Ukraine as equal parties gives the aggressor "an extraordinarily valuable gift."36 Zelenskyy told the forum that "Putin does not read Truth Social." He said Kyiv would respect an energy truce only if Moscow stopped its own strikes.36

The intelligence question

Accounts conflict most on US intelligence. Zelenskyy said Ukraine got no warning from partners before a ballistic missile attack on Kyiv.2 Ukraine's Air Force said it had no advance information about the launches.4 Sybiha, by contrast, told the forum that intelligence sharing with the US is continuing. He blamed the late air raid alert on the type of weapon Russia used.19 He did not say whether the scope of sharing had changed.5

The two accounts can both be true if the cooperation has been narrowed but not cut off, though no one has confirmed that. An assessment cited by the Kyiv Post found that losing US intelligence would hurt Ukraine's ballistic missile early warning the most. European and Ukrainian surveillance could make up only part of the gap.19 For European governments, that is the real issue. If Washington uses intelligence sharing as a bargaining tool, Europe's ability to fill the gap becomes a direct question of security on the continent.

Why it matters

Taken together, the coverage shows Sybiha's remark is more than a one-liner. Ukraine's ability to hit Russian refineries has become something Washington wants to buy back. It has also strained relations between the US and Europe, with Germany clearly on the side of keeping up pressure. Sybiha described Ukraine's front line as Europe's first line of defence.19 He also listed Kyiv's immediate needs: air defence systems, interceptor missiles, and ammunition for the F-16s that have proved useful against jet-powered Shahed drones.2 On the same visit he welcomed the go-ahead to open two more EU accession negotiating clusters.17

Having cards is not the same as being able to play them freely. Europe now has to decide whether it will cover the costs of Kyiv holding its ground on refinery strikes: lost US intelligence, PURL restrictions, and higher fuel prices at home. Merz's refusal suggests Berlin is willing, at least for now. EU leaders meet in Brussels this week, and that summit will show whether the rest of Europe is ready to back that up with money and military supplies.29