Supply Chain Costs Rise as Tanker Rates and Port Strikes Bite

A freight market moving in two directions

In mid-October 2026 the global supply chain is hard to sum up with one number. Container spot rates as a whole are about flat, and on some lanes they are falling. Meanwhile the cost of moving energy has risen sharply, labor disputes keep breaking out at ports around the world, and parts shortages are cutting output in consumer electronics. Shippers face costs that are not spiking across the board. Instead they are moving to new places, and diesel is the most important of them.

The main container benchmark shows the split. Drewry's World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on 15 October, mostly because Asia–Europe rates went up.11 That came a week after the index slipped 2% to $4,351 while China's Golden Week holiday closed factories and weakened demand.1715 Taken alone, the composite figure suggests a market drifting sideways. The lane-by-lane numbers tell a different story.

Transpacific stays expensive while Asia–Europe softens

On 15 October, Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 3% to $7,884 per box and Shanghai–New York eased 1% to $10,075.11 Drewry attributes the high transpacific prices to strong US import demand.11 Coverage aimed at small importers puts this in perspective: in early October the Los Angeles lane was about 30% above its July level and New York about 35% higher, while Rotterdam was 31% lower and Genoa 38% lower.19 One timeline of the index lists fuel costs, congestion and Panama Canal limits as the main reasons US-bound rates have climbed since summer.12

Asia–Europe is the reverse. Before last week's increase, rates on that trade had fallen for 13 weeks in a row.15 Every outlet covering Drewry's assessments agrees on the reason: ships are going back through the Suez Canal, which shortens voyages and adds capacity without any new vessels being built.1216 On 15 October Shanghai–Rotterdam rose 6% to $3,522 and Shanghai–Genoa rose 7% to $3,945. Carriers are also trying to push freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates of $4,500–$4,800 from 19 October.11 Drewry doubts those increases will stick. It points out that blank sailings on the route are falling from six to two, which leaves more effective capacity in the market.11

My reading is that last week's Asia–Europe rise is a short bounce, not a turnaround. Carriers have been trying to raise rates for weeks, and Drewry has repeatedly called the faster-than-expected return to Suez the biggest threat to those efforts.15 Unless capacity is taken out again, European importers are the one group of shippers whose ocean freight bills are falling.

The longer view matters too. One tracker puts the index about 132% above its October 2025 low of $1,651, with a 2026 high of $4,526 in August.14 Another timeline puts the 2026 peak a little higher, at $4,639. That gap probably reflects differences in which weekly readings each tracker records.12 Either way, current rates are not a crisis by 2021 standards, when the index peaked at $10,377. Even so, they are more than double what shippers paid a year ago.12

The real cost shock is in energy shipping

The biggest increase in logistics costs this autumn is in oil transport, not containers. Reuters reported that a supertanker carrying about 2 million barrels from the US to Japan in late November will cost $81 million for the trip. The same voyage averaged $9.1 million last year, so shipping now adds about $40.50 per barrel.30 According to LSEG data cited in that report, freight now makes up more than 40% of the price of US oil, compared with 7% on average in 2025.30

The causes are attacks on ships linked to the US-Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine war. Ships are also sailing longer routes and moving cargo ship to ship, which ties up tankers for longer.30 Rates for Very Large Crude Carriers have more than quadrupled in a year. BCA Research estimates that the cost of Gulf-to-Far-East trips has gone from under $2 to over $30 per barrel so far this year.26 RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft called the situation a transportation crisis, saying the shortage has moved from oil itself to the ships that carry it.26

OPEC+ ministers meeting in Riyadh on 12 October said shipping and insurance costs for crude and refined products now exceed one-third of the value of the cargo. They warned that these costs are feeding global inflation.23 The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that Gulf crude exports recovered to 13.9 million barrels per day in September, more than 75% of pre-war levels. However, refined product shipments from the Middle East were only 1.9 million barrels per day, against 4.7 million before the war.23 The IEA also said global diesel and gasoil availability fell by 1.7 million barrels per day in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, and that tight middle-distillate supply will likely last well into 2027.23

This is the most important point in the current news. Diesel powers trucks, rail, farm equipment and ships, so a diesel shortage raises the cost of almost every physical supply chain. Baker Institute economist Kenneth Medlock describes the effect as slow but sticky: the longer high costs last, the more they show up in prices at grocery stores and malls.30 The US trucking market is already feeling it. At the CSCMP EDGE conference, Walmart's Kelson Hardwick pointed to record fuel prices, and panelists described tighter road capacity, higher spot rates and more trucking bankruptcies.27

Port labor: one strike averted, several others under way

The biggest labor threat to European ports this autumn has been settled. Ver.di, the German union, accepted the employers' offer covering about 11,000 workers at Hamburg, Bremen, Bremerhaven, Emden, Brake and Wilhelmshaven. The deal includes a 3.4% wage increase backdated to 1 August, €200 more in holiday pay, and a €416 annual payment for container-terminal staff from January 2027.35 The union had been seeking 8.2%, and earlier warning strikes had halted terminals for up to 48 hours.37 Ver.di called the result acceptable but noted that employers still had to approve it.31

The settlement does not end the congestion. Kuehne + Nagel puts yard utilization at 90% in Bremerhaven and 80%–85% in Hamburg.31 Low water on the Rhine is also limiting barge traffic. Maersk has warned that barge transport may stop being workable, and Contargo reports barge waits of 56 hours in Rotterdam and 36 hours in Antwerp.31 For shippers in northern Europe, the strike threat was only one of several pressures.

Other port disputes have started. At Kingston Freeport Terminal in Jamaica, more than 1,000 workers walked out on 9 October and cranes stopped working. The workers want to replace their current union, which they say has failed them on pay and benefits, and they accuse the labor ministry of ignoring requests for a union vote for almost two years.6 Kingston is a major transshipment hub in the Caribbean, so a long shutdown there could spread to regional feeder services, although no such impact has been reported so far.1

In Bangladesh, workers at Chittagong held a hunger strike after the port authority signed a 15-year deal for DP World to run the New Mooring Container Terminal.2 Organizers have announced a fast-unto-death starting 19 October if the government does not open talks by the 18th. They are demanding that the deal be cancelled and that jobs be guaranteed.4 Separately, the World Federation of Trade Unions is organizing a coordinated dockworker action on 30 October across a network of more than 40 Mediterranean and European ports. The action combines anti-war demands with opposition to automation and casual labor.3

Taken together, these disputes show that dock labor is increasingly worried about more than wages. Port privatization, union recognition and automation are now central issues as well. These disputes are harder to settle with a pay rise, and they could flare up again even where a contract has been signed.

Shortages are showing up in products

The effects are clearest in electronics. Counterpoint Research says global smartphone shipments fell 20% year on year in the third quarter, the lowest third-quarter total in 14 years, because memory chip shortages limited supply.29 Manufacturers passed the higher component costs on to buyers, and retail prices have risen about 20% so far in 2026. Counterpoint expects no real recovery until component supply improves.29 This is the same pattern seen in freight: costs are not absorbed but passed down the chain to the end customer.

What to watch

CSCMP speakers say volatility will last into 2027, with geopolitical risks and high energy costs at the top of the list.22 An Inter-American Development Bank analysis adds that economies with weak logistics lose much more output from supply chain shocks. For the median Central American economy, it estimates the cost at about $85 million a year.25

The near-term signals to watch are whether carriers' Asia–Europe rate increases hold on 19 October, whether Chittagong workers go ahead with their fast, and whether attacks on tankers keep pushing diesel prices up. Of these, diesel matters most. Container rates may level off, but if the cost of moving fuel stays this high, logistics costs will keep rising even without dramatic news from the ports.