Stocks Near Record as Oil Stays Above $100 and Bitcoin Slips 4%

A calm close after a rough week

Wall Street ended a choppy week on a firm note. Going into Monday, though, the main forces behind the market are oil, bond yields and the war with Iran. Earnings matter less for now. On Friday the S&P 500 rose 0.6% to about 7,811, the Dow gained 0.8% (roughly 423 points) to about 51,655, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6% to about 27,366.1213 The S&P 500 closed less than 8 points below the record it set on Tuesday.17 Investopedia's tally has the S&P 500 up 1.2% for the week, the Dow up 0.9% and the Nasdaq up 0.6%. That makes four straight weekly gains for the Nasdaq.17

The weekly scores hide how rough the week was. Thursday brought a tech-led selloff driven by worries about AI valuations, rising oil and high Treasury yields.14 By Thursday's close the S&P 500 had fallen 0.5% to 7,765 and the Nasdaq had dropped 1.3%.3 Friday's bounce came mostly from three things: oil cooled during the session, the Magnificent Seven recovered about 1%, and fears about OpenAI's revenue outlook eased.1719 The VIX fell to about 14.8, a sign that traders were not especially worried going into the weekend.18

The coverage does not agree on everything. TheStreet put the Nasdaq's weekly gain at just 0.19%, while Investopedia, Investrade and T. Rowe Price all put it near 0.64%.12158 T. Rowe Price also noted that the Russell 2000 fell for the week and mid-caps were roughly flat.8 That fits Morgan Stanley's point, reported by Investopedia, that fewer stocks are driving the rally as tech gains hide weakness elsewhere.17 In my reading, the indexes look healthier than the market underneath them.

Oil: the pledge vs. what's actually happening on the water

Oil is the biggest single risk heading into Monday. On Thursday Brent jumped about 4% to settle near $104.28, and WTI rose 3.6% to $91.49.6 Three things drove the move. Iran stepped up attacks on tankers, with nine hit in and around the Strait of Hormuz in a week. Hurricane Isaias threatened U.S. Gulf of Mexico output. And reports said the White House was weighing new strikes on Iran.61 The Guardian, citing The Atlantic, reported that the administration had asked the Pentagon for strike options before the midterms, possibly a limited operation followed by bigger action afterward.1

President Trump then said the U.S. would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterms and described talks with Tehran as productive. That pulled prices back.7 Iranian state media also reported that Tehran was reviewing a U.S. response to a proposal that could reopen Hormuz within seven days. If that held up, it would take much of the war premium out of crude.7

The reports differ on where oil ended Friday, and the gap is telling. Investopedia had WTI down 0.4% at $91.20 and Brent down 0.4% at about $104 late in the day.17 Rigzone reported that both benchmarks settled up about 0.4%, with WTI near $91.85 and Brent near $104.72, after rising again late in the session.4 Investing.com and The National both described Brent sliding toward $103 earlier in the day.32 So the sequence was: the pledge bought a morning of relief, and then tanker attacks and the hurricane pushed prices back up by the close. T. Rowe Price noted that more attacks on Friday kept prices swinging.8

I side with the analysts who say the pledge postpones the risk rather than removing it. A trading-desk newsletter wrote that the risk premium "merely changed its expiration date."5 TD Securities' Ryan McKay argued that Middle East flows have largely recovered, but the need for naval escorts and the constant threat of attack mean a lasting risk premium belongs in prices.6 The numbers back that up. Kpler data showed about 9.5 million barrels a day leaving Hormuz, roughly 30% below pre-war levels.6 Shipping crude from the Persian Gulf to East Asia now costs more than six times what it did before the war, and Dated Brent topped $135 on Thursday.4

There are a few offsets. Trump said Vladimir Putin had agreed to send more than 300,000 tons of diesel right away and up to 3 million tons later. Heating oil futures fell as much as 5% after the close on that news.4 The IEA agreed to speed up stock releases and put diesel first, and China is expected to resume exports of refined fuel after its holiday.10 Saudi Aramco also told European refiners they would get all the crude they requested for November.4 Whether the Russian diesel actually arrives is still unclear. Until it does, I'd treat it as a headline rather than real supply.19

The hurricane is the weekend wild card

Isaias was expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday, so Monday's open will show what damage it did.4 Estimates of how much Gulf production was shut in grew quickly, and they vary. CNBC first reported about 500,000 barrels a day, or 25% of output.6 Government data cited Thursday put shut-ins at about 1.3 million barrels a day, or 62.9% of Gulf production.710 Rigzone later reported about 72%, with nearly 500,000 barrels a day of refining capacity in or near the storm's path and several ports closing.4 The differences mostly reflect when each figure was taken, as the storm got closer. Damage to refineries or export terminals would hit diesel hardest, and diesel is where prices are already most extreme. U.S. retail diesel has topped $6 a gallon for the first time.4

Bonds and inflation: the link between oil and stocks

Oil matters to stocks mainly through yields. Investrade reported that a bond selloff this week pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.3645%, its highest since April 2002.15 T. Rowe Price said yields came down from those levels after strong demand at Treasury auctions.8 By Friday the 10-year was around 5.24%.25 In the U.K., the 10-year gilt yield reached its highest level since 2007 on Thursday as investors worried that oil would push inflation higher.1 The Guardian noted that expectations of central bank rate hikes have grown stronger.1

That is why next week's data matters so much. Investrade pointed to CPI and PPI reports arriving as earnings season begins.15 Delta gave an early look at what energy costs are doing to corporate results. It missed estimates and cut its full-year profit outlook because of fuel prices.17 Consumer confidence has fallen to a five-month low.19 If inflation comes in hot while oil is still above $100, the bond market will probably get nervous again. That could hit Friday's tech winners hardest.

Single stocks to watch Monday

Several big Friday moves could continue. SpaceX's purchase of low-band spectrum, which moves it closer to launching a mobile network, sent T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon down between 8.5% and 13%. Tower owners such as Crown Castle and American Tower jumped.17 Humana rose about 12% on better Medicare Advantage star ratings.17 Lumentum climbed after saying it is selling out of AI server products, pulling the wider optical-networking group up with it.17 On the political side, Yahoo Finance reported that Trump set up a committee to investigate mortgage fraud allegations against Fed governor Lisa Cook. That adds to questions about the Fed's independence.13

Crypto: Bitcoin is trading on oil and Fed expectations

Bitcoin ended the week as a laggard. It traded around $82,300 on Friday, up modestly on the day.17 CoinGecko data showed it down about 4.8% over seven days, and CoinDesk said it was on track for a weekly loss.2227 It bounced about 3.2% from Thursday's low of $80,427. CryptoTicker attributed the bounce directly to Trump's Iran pledge pushing Brent lower.23 The reasoning is that oil drives inflation, inflation drives rate expectations, and higher rates hurt risk assets. In this market, bitcoin is behaving like a tech stock, not a hedge.23

The flows are a warning sign. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost about $485 million on October 7, which Bitcoin.com called the heaviest single day of outflows since June. Two-day outflows came close to $1 billion.3028 Liquidations across crypto topped $1.1 billion as bitcoin briefly fell below $81,000.30 Bitcoin.com described a quick shift from accumulation in September to a more defensive stance among institutions.30 Bitcoin is now about 35% below its October 2025 all-time high of roughly $126,200.21

What I expect next

I think stocks are more exposed than Friday's calm suggests. The S&P 500 is close to a record with fewer stocks participating. The 10-year yield is above 5%. Brent is holding above $100 despite a presidential pledge. Several things could move markets Monday: the hurricane's toll on Gulf infrastructure, any weekend developments in Hormuz or the Iran talks, and positioning before the inflation data. A confirmed reopening of Hormuz would be the clearest bullish catalyst for stocks, bonds and bitcoin alike. Without that, any good news from the pledge is already priced in, while the risks to supply still aren't.