SpaceX Lockup Expiry: 1.3 Billion Shares Loom After Q3 Earnings

A record IPO enters its most crowded stretch

SpaceX's record stock market debut was only the start. The lockup schedule that follows it now affects SPCX's price as much as Starship or Starlink news does. The company began trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026, after pricing its shares at $1352. The stock opened at $150 and closed its first session at $160.952. That roughly 19% first-day gain pushed SpaceX's market value to about $2.1 trillion, ahead of Tesla for a time7.

The offering is widely described as the largest IPO ever. It raised about $75 billion at the offer price, close to triple Saudi Aramco's $25.6 billion listing in 20196. Reports give slightly different figures for the size and the valuation. Most outlets quote roughly $75 billion and a valuation of $1.75 to $1.8 trillion39. Other accounts say net proceeds were about $85.7 billion after underwriters fully exercised their over-allotment option, which brought the total to roughly 638.9 million Class A shares sold211. These figures don't conflict. They measure the deal before and after the greenshoe (the extra shares underwriters can sell when demand is strong).

Early insiders and investors are now gradually being allowed to sell, and in the coming weeks the amount of stock released picks up sharply. As of this writing, the stock is trading around $1467.

How the staggered lockup works

Most IPO lockups end on a single date, usually after 180 days. SpaceX set up a schedule that releases pre-IPO shares in pieces. Some releases follow earnings reports and others fall on fixed days counted from the IPO pricing11. The prospectus sorts shareholders into three groups[13]:

• Employees and most pre-IPO holders: about 4.6 billion shares under a staggered 180-day lockup.
• Certain significant investors: about 1.4 billion shares under an extended lockup that runs into 2027.
• Elon Musk: about 6.4 billion shares locked for 366 days with no early release.

The largest single release so far came on August 6. That day, 911.5 million shares became eligible to trade, about 43% more than the 638.9 million shares sold in the IPO19. The unlock lifted the freely tradable share of the company from 4.9% to 11.8%19. Smaller tranches of 7% each followed on fixed dates. About 319 million shares were released on August 20 and again on September 9, and about 328.4 million on September 24 and again on October 911.

The design also included a bonus release tied to the share price, and it did not trigger. An extra 455.8 million shares would have unlocked early if SPCX had closed at least 30% above the IPO price, at $175.50 or higher, on five of the ten trading days leading into earnings12. The stock went into its August 4 report close to all-time lows, so those shares stay locked until the December expiry12. The effect was that a weak stock price kept more shares off the market.

The calendar ahead

Nearly every tracker names the same three upcoming events. Some put dates a day apart because they count from June 11 or June 12. The next fixed release is 328.4 million shares on October 2412. One calendar lists it as October 25 because it counts from the listing date16.

The bigger event comes after the third-quarter results. On the second full trading day after the Q3 report, up to 28% of the 180-day pool, about 1.3 billion shares, can become tradable11. Estimates for when that happens range from late October to November1317. It is the largest single release left in 2026.

The remaining roughly 797.6 million shares in the 180-day pool become free around December 811. Other calendars give December 9167. By one estimate, the tradable float will have grown from about 5% at the IPO to roughly 40% by then12. The Motley Fool estimated that about 17% of the share count was publicly traded as of late September17.

The largest release comes in 2027. Musk's roughly 6.4 billion shares can first be transferred on June 12, 2027, and the prospectus says his shares have no early-release provisions13. The extended-investor group unlocks in stages from about February to August 202713.

One tracker says Musk's shares are part of an extended lockup ending around December 9, 202618. That conflicts with what other coverage attributes directly to the 424B4 filing, which gives a 366-day lockup for the founder's shares1317. The 2027 date is better supported.

Do the unlocks actually push the price down?

The usual expectation is that more shares available means a lower price, and SpaceX's trading so far has only partly fit that pattern. In mid-July, before the first unlock, Investing.com noted that SPCX had already fallen below its IPO price. It valued the coming August release at about $123 billion, roughly 68 times a typical large-cap lockup expiry15. When the release actually happened, the stock rose 6.1% that day19.

Later tranches followed a similar pattern. Selling tended to happen in the days before each release rather than on the day itself. Ahead of the September 24 unlock, the stock fell 4.1% the day before and only 0.2% on the day20. Part of that earlier drop followed a filing by President and COO Gwynne Shotwell to sell 342,170 shares, worth about $50 million17. Before the August release, JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth said he believed investors had already positioned for it19.

The pattern suggests investors adjust for well-publicized unlocks ahead of time, though the effect is probably not over. The Q3 release is about four times the size of the recent tranches. In dollar terms it is closer in scale to the August event than to the routine 7% releases.

Wall Street splits on the overhang

Analysts are deeply divided. Underwriter banks have treated the unlocks as a chance to buy. Morgan Stanley reiterated a $300 price target and argued that a fall to $100, which some investors expected, would imply almost no value for the AI business14. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley called the overhang "an opportunity rather than a risk." Citigroup's John Godyn predicted that the 2026 lockup debates would eventually look like buying opportunities17.

Skeptics focus on the valuation. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens expected a "wave" of selling once restrictions ended14. The firm put fair value at about $780 billion, less than half the IPO valuation1. Aswath Damodaran valued the company at about $1.3 trillion and described xAI winning a meaningful share of the $26 trillion AI market cited in the prospectus as "beyond plausible"1. At the offer price, SpaceX traded at about 67 times trailing sales1. One later estimate put the multiple above 100 times sales in early October6.

The price swings show the same divide. SPCX climbed to about $225 soon after the debut, fell below $105 by early August, and recovered above its IPO price by early October6. Much of that movement depends on how much investors credit the AI unit. That unit's revenue reportedly rose 247% year over year in Q2, and its rebranding news has moved the stock5.

The reading

Our reading of the coverage is that SpaceX's staggered lockup has worked as intended. Spreading releases across nine tranches turned what could have been one huge supply shock into a series of smaller ones that investors anticipated and absorbed. It did not stop the stock from roughly halving from its peak by late July1. The swings in SPCX have tracked earnings and the debate over the AI business more closely than the unlock calendar.

That makes the next six weeks an important test. The release after Q3 earnings coincides with a new earnings report, which removes the separation between fundamentals and supply that has protected the stock so far. Weak results combined with 1.3 billion newly tradable shares would put real pressure on the price. Strong results would support the bulls' argument that lockup selling is a temporary distraction.

The largest overhang remains Musk's stake. His shares make up about half of the company, and they become transferable in June 202712. Coverage generally agrees he is unlikely to sell much of it17, but the float is expected to grow substantially once his lockup ends, regardless of whether he sells.