Online Grocery Sales Growth Doubles US Ecommerce Pace in Q1 2026

Two growth curves, one widening gap

The latest federal retail figures show steady but unspectacular US ecommerce growth. Grocery, a category long treated as stubbornly offline, is growing at roughly twice that rate.

The Census Bureau estimates that seasonally adjusted US retail ecommerce sales reached $326.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026. That is up 2.7% from the prior quarter and 9.8% from the same period a year earlier 1. Total retail sales grew more slowly, rising 3.9% year over year to about $1.93 trillion. Ecommerce therefore accounted for 16.9% of all retail spending 1. On an unadjusted basis, online sales fell 17.2% from the holiday-heavy fourth quarter, the usual post-holiday drop. The year-over-year gain held at 9.7% 1.

Online grocery is running hotter. Citing Brick Meets Click data, Digital Commerce 360 reports that US online grocery sales have grown more than 20% year over year for six consecutive quarters through Q1 2026 3. Online orders now make up more than 19% of total grocery sales, up from less than 15% in Q3 2024 3. Excluding the ship-to-home segment, online's share rose from about 12% to roughly 16% over the same period 3.

These numbers come from different methodologies, so they are not directly comparable. The direction is still clear. Grocery's online penetration is now above ecommerce's share of overall retail, and the category is gaining share faster than the broader channel.

Speed is the lever

The main driver behind grocery's acceleration appears to be delivery speed. Windows of about three hours, and in some cases 30 minutes, are pulling more shoppers into the channel 3. Brick Meets Click estimates that same-day purchases made up about 80% of delivery orders in Q1 2026. Same-day also accounted for more than 30% of ship-to-home orders across retail formats 3.

That matters because grocery has always been a frequency business. People buy food every week, often more than once. Once fulfillment speed approaches the convenience of a quick store run, the remaining barriers to habitual online ordering get much smaller. The six-quarter run of 20%-plus growth suggests this is a durable behavioral shift rather than a promotional spike.

The economics problem hasn't gone away

Revenue growth is not profit. Local Express, a vendor that sells technology to independent grocers, says a typical grocery delivery loses about $13 on every $100 order 2. That figure comes from a company with a commercial interest in the argument, so treat it as directional rather than definitive. It matches a widely held view in the industry: picking, packing, and last-mile delivery of perishable, low-margin goods is expensive.

The same source offers a partial counterweight. Online grocery baskets reportedly average $112, nearly triple the $42.83 in-store average 2. Larger baskets spread fixed fulfillment costs across more revenue, which helps unit economics. But margins in the sector are thin to begin with. Local Express puts independent grocers' net margins at about 1.4%, compared with roughly 7% for chains 2. At those levels, even a modest per-order loss can wipe out profitability.

The tension between faster delivery and profitability is the core issue. The same-day and sub-hour speeds driving adoption 3 are also the most expensive to provide. Faster windows mean smaller batches, less route consolidation, and more labor per order.

Who can make it work?

Local Express argues that density and efficiency are the answer. In its view, local operators with optimized routes and lower customer acquisition costs can build profitable models, and community-focused services will win 2. That conclusion is self-serving, given the company's customer base, but the logic is sound. Delivery economics improve when stops are clustered and baskets are large.

The more likely outcome is a split market. Large chains, with higher margins and dense store networks that double as fulfillment nodes, are better placed to absorb delivery losses or engineer them away. Independents can compete on proximity and local loyalty, but they start with far less margin to work with.

The bottom line

Grocery is now one of the strongest growth engines in US ecommerce, expanding at roughly double the channel's overall pace and steadily taking share from physical stores 13. The industry has shown that consumers will shift grocery spending online when delivery is fast enough. What it has not shown is that this delivery can be done profitably at scale. If growth keeps outrunning the economics, the next phase is likely to bring consolidation, delivery fees, and pressure on how fast "fast" really needs to be.