Nvidia stock tests record highs as Nov. 18 earnings approach

Nvidia heads into earnings season near record highs

Nvidia goes into the fourth quarter of 2026 with its shares close to record levels and almost every Wall Street analyst calling it a buy. One fact sits awkwardly with that picture: in a year when chip stocks have soared, Nvidia has been one of the weaker names in the group. The company is expected to report fiscal third-quarter results after the close on November 18. That date is still an estimate.5 Before then, several semiconductor reports and macro data releases will test whether the AI hardware trade can keep running.

My view after reading across the coverage: Nvidia looks like a sound buy for investors willing to hold for several years. For anyone hoping to profit from a short pre-earnings run, the case is weaker. Over the next few weeks the stock is likely to move more on interest rates, TSMC's results and general risk appetite than on its own results.

The price action: a record, then a pullback

On Monday, October 5, Nvidia set an intraday all-time high of $237.87 and traded around $236.46 later that session.24 Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, said $240 is the level to watch. In his view, a close above it would confirm a breakout with a possible target of $270.24 That momentum faded quickly. On Thursday, October 8, the stock fell 2.94% to close at $230.48.21 StockInvest.us still rates Nvidia a technical "Buy Candidate" and puts volume-based support near $228.21

The year-to-date return reads differently depending on where you compare it. Against the broad market, Nvidia is ahead: one tally had it up about 24% at the start of October versus roughly 12% for the S&P 500.23 Against other chipmakers it is far behind. Advanced Micro Devices and Intel have each gained more than 200% this year, while Nvidia is up about 28%.22 A CNBC columnist calculated that Nvidia trails the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by 55 percentage points year to date and by 75 points over the past twelve months.27

The bull case rests on valuation, though the multiple depends on who's counting

The bullish articles agree on one central claim: Nvidia is cheap relative to its growth. They disagree on how cheap, and the gap reflects which year's earnings each writer divides into the price.

• About 25x forward earnings: Barchart-syndicated pieces use roughly 24.7x to 25.3x and compare that with AMD near 95x to 99x and Intel at about 115x.2230
• About 17x: a CNBC column and FactSet-sourced reporting put the multiple between 16.7x and 17x, which the CNBC writer calls the lowest in at least ten years. Nvidia's five- and ten-year average is about 35x.2728
• About 15x: 24/7 Wall St. reaches that figure by using fiscal 2028 consensus EPS of roughly $15.68.23

The lower numbers come from looking further ahead, so they depend on Nvidia delivering the steep earnings ramp analysts expect. Management has guided to revenue growth of about 70% in fiscal 2028 and says supply, not demand, is the limiting factor.23 Analysts forecast earnings will more than double in fiscal 2027 and grow roughly 68% the following year.22 Even at the most conservative of these multiples, Nvidia trades well below its fastest-rising peers. That is the strongest point in the bull case.

Analyst opinion is nearly unanimous. WallStreetZen counts 30 analysts, all at Buy or Strong Buy, with an average 12-month target of $343.40 and a range of $275 to $515.25 Barchart's broader panel of 50 analysts has 46 Strong Buy ratings and an average target of $326.90.30 24/7 Wall St. puts the average across 61 analysts at about $328 and counts one Sell.23 Price targets therefore cluster in the mid-$320s to low-$340s, roughly 37% to 45% above recent prices.2225

The board is backing that view with cash. On September 28, Nvidia added $150 billion to its buyback authorization, the largest increase in its history, bringing the total remaining to about $235 billion through fiscal 2028.2728

What the November report needs to show

The bar for this report is high. In fiscal Q2, Nvidia reported revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, and has guided to about $108 billion for Q3.22 Consensus estimates differ by source. Benzinga cites expectations of $2.38 in EPS and about $104.2 billion in revenue.24 A Motley Fool article from late September cited a revenue consensus near $109 billion.29 The difference matters. If the true consensus sits above guidance, a result that only meets guidance could disappoint.

Nvidia has a strong record against estimates: 15 straight quarters of EPS beats and 16 of revenue beats.24 Woods noted, though, that reaching new highs before the report raises the pressure on both the results and the guidance.24

Even the Q2 earnings figure varies across outlets. Blockonomi reported EPS of $2.22 against a $2.09 consensus.28 The Motley Fool cited $2.46 and net income of $59.68 billion.29 The two numbers are probably measured on different accounting bases, so readers should check which one they are comparing with Q3 estimates.

The bullish pieces name the same main risks. AI labs could struggle to finance their compute commitments, margins could fall below guided levels, or hyperscalers could reduce capital spending.23

TSMC on October 15 is the first test

The next major event for chip stocks comes before Nvidia reports. ASML is expected to report on October 14, TSMC on October 15 and Intel on October 22. AMD, Arm and Qualcomm follow in early November.5 TSMC is the most direct early indicator for Nvidia. High-performance computing, which consists mostly of AI chips for Nvidia and other designers, made up two-thirds of TSMC's revenue last quarter.4 Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform is built on TSMC's 3nm process.4

TSMC's monthly sales point to a strong quarter. July, August and September revenue adds up to about $46.7 billion, roughly 41% above last year in dollar terms, and September came in about $1.4 billion ahead of analyst expectations.10 Reported growth rates differ by source: the Motley Fool article on what to watch cites 50% year-over-year growth.4 Whichever figure is used, the issue is guidance. TSMC has raised its full-year outlook twice, most recently to at least 40% growth. Merely repeating that figure, or raising capital spending without raising revenue, could hurt the shares and the wider semiconductor group.4

The sector is not cheap going into these reports. The iShares Semiconductor ETF rose 11% in September, gained another 3.6% in the first two trading days of October, and trades at about 43 times earnings.2 At that level, results that only meet expectations may get little reaction. Micron's flat close after reporting full-year revenue of $133.19 billion, up from $37.38 billion, is an example.2 On these comparisons, Nvidia's relatively low multiple could help it in a sell-off.

Bitcoin shows the macro pressure on risk assets

Crypto markets have been reacting to the same macro forces that will affect Nvidia in the short term. Bitcoin lost more than 4% this week and traded near $82,500 on Friday, after failing at the $87,600 level, which is a 50% retracement of its decline.16 US spot bitcoin ETFs were on course to end a three-week streak of inflows, with about $702 million in net outflows through Thursday.16 Analysts blamed profit-taking, long liquidations, higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.16 The coin held near $82,760 on Saturday after about $1.1 billion in liquidations during the week.11

The link to Nvidia is not only about rates. Some coverage attributed bitcoin's fall toward $82,000 partly to concerns about OpenAI's revenue, along with geopolitical tension and higher oil prices.17 That is the same AI-financing worry that runs through Nvidia's risk list. Earlier in the week, the 10-year Treasury yield was above 5.25% while stocks set records and bitcoin moved sideways.12 Equities proved more resilient than crypto: on Friday, Schwab described stocks recovering early as AI concerns eased.18

The macro calendar is busy. September CPI is due October 14, the day before TSMC reports, and the Fed meets October 27–28.14 Traders have been changing their bets on further Fed tightening.1119 If inflation comes in hot and pushes yields higher, both bitcoin and high-multiple chip stocks would likely sell off, regardless of how strong AI demand is.

The verdict

Taken together, the coverage points to a business still growing at an exceptional rate, a stock that has lagged its sector, and a valuation that is low by Nvidia's own historical standards. The buyback, the near-unanimous analyst support and the supply-limited outlook all point the same way. For investors with a horizon of several years, these reasons are strong enough to support buying.

In the near term, the setup is less favorable. Shares are near record highs, consensus estimates may sit above the company's guidance, and the next few weeks bring TSMC, CPI and a Fed meeting in a market where bitcoin is already being hit by rising yields. Buying in stages before November 18, instead of putting the full position in before the report, is the more sensible approach.