NuScale TVA Deal Makes It a Reactor Supplier, Not a Plant Owner

A data-center nuclear story with an unusual setup

The biggest small modular reactor program in the United States features NuScale Power's technology, but NuScale is not one of the companies that signed it. The Tennessee Valley Authority's plan for up to 6 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity was agreed with ENTRA1 Energy, NuScale's exclusive commercialization partner, and NuScale was not a party to the agreement.1 If the program goes ahead, ENTRA1 would develop, finance, own and run the plants and sell the electricity to TVA under power purchase agreements that have not yet been signed. NuScale's role would be to supply the reactor modules.13

That structure is the main point of a Motley Fool analysis published in late August. It argued that NuScale's role in the deal is narrower than the stock's moves on TVA headlines suggested.1 Since then the case has only gotten stronger. The shares have fallen to 52-week lows, a rival design has won the first commercial construction permit for a small modular reactor, and a law firm has opened an investigation.61712

What the TVA agreement says

The deal was announced in September 2025. It describes six "ENTRA1 Energy Plants" spread across TVA's seven-state service area, each built from multiple NuScale Power Modules.23 TVA said the output could supply the equivalent of about 4.5 million homes or 60 new data centers. TVA, NuScale and trade press all named artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing and semiconductor manufacturing as the reasons electricity demand is rising.27 At NuScale's 77-megawatt module size, 6 gigawatts works out to about 72 reactors. The American Nuclear Society's newswire estimated that six 12-module plants would total roughly 5.5 gigawatts.17

The early coverage agreed on who owns what. World Nuclear News, Utility Dive, the ANS newswire and Investing.com all said ENTRA1 would own and finance the plants.2357 What the 2025 coverage mostly did not stress was that the agreement is non-binding. No timelines or cost estimates were made public at the time.7 Investors still treated it as a landmark: NuScale stock rose about 11% to 13% the day after the announcement.59

The money flows from NuScale to its partner

The more surprising detail is which way the cash moves. Under a Partnership Milestones Agreement signed in August 2025, NuScale pays ENTRA1 as the program hits milestones.1 The first milestone was triggered when ENTRA1 signed its non-binding agreement with TVA. The Motley Fool, citing NuScale's filings, says the company booked a $507.4 million expense for it, or 15% of the total. NuScale paid $247.5 million in 2025 and $259.9 million in the first half of 2026.1 Short seller Iceberg Research gave a slightly lower figure of $495 million in a November 2025 report. It said the payments average about $45 million per module and are booked as general and administrative expense, not as a loan.4 The gap between the two figures probably reflects updated filings. Either way, both sources describe close to half a billion dollars paid out on the strength of a memorandum.

Larger payments are still to come. A binding power purchase agreement, which is the event investors have been waiting for, would trigger a second payment of 35% of the total. The Motley Fool puts that near $1.2 billion if the 72-module scope holds. The final 50% would come due only when modules are actually ordered.1 In other words, the event most likely to lift the stock would also cost NuScale more than a billion dollars before it sells a single reactor.

Two more terms matter. The milestones agreement sets a negotiated maximum sale price for each module NuScale delivers into an ENTRA1 project. It also gives ENTRA1 "sole and full discretion" over whether to buy from NuScale at all.14 So NuScale is paying for a pipeline, with a price ceiling fixed before any order exists, and its partner is not required to buy from it.

Questions about the partner

Iceberg's report put ENTRA1 under scrutiny. It said ENTRA1 shared a Houston WeWork address with NuScale, had only a few employees listed on LinkedIn, and belonged to a parent group with no nuclear experience. Iceberg used those points to question whether the agreement was negotiated at arm's length.4 Those are a short seller's claims, made by a firm that profits if the stock falls, so they should be read that way. Still, they line up with later developments. Class actions now allege misstatements about ENTRA1's nuclear experience.8 Pomerantz LLP said in October 2026 that it is investigating possible securities fraud.1214

The two sides describe ENTRA1 very differently. The ANS newswire noted ENTRA1's claim of a 30-gigawatt SMR project pipeline and pointed out that the company had not published a full list of where or how far along those projects are.7 NuScale CEO John Hopkins called the TVA agreement "historic" and said ENTRA1's experience in energy and finance would support deployment.2 So far, the record backs the skeptics more than the promoters.

A rival design gets there first

In early October 2026 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission gave TVA a construction permit for GE Vernova's 300-megawatt BWRX-300 at the Clinch River site. It was the first construction permit the agency has issued for a commercial small modular reactor, and the review finished four months early.6 This undercuts one of NuScale's main selling points. NuScale has long said it holds the only SMR design certification the NRC has granted, and its larger US460 design received standard design approval in May 2025.63 But certification has not produced a construction permit, a firm order, or even a combined license application. NRC records list NuScale only in pre-application work.6

The history behind this matters too. NuScale's earlier flagship, the Carbon Free Power Project with Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems, was cancelled in 2023 with no reactors built after nearly a decade of work. Costs rose, the design changed, and not enough utilities signed up.7 The new deal is also with a public power entity, now at about twelve times the module count.

The stock has fallen hard

The Motley Fool put NuScale's market value near $4 billion in August and said almost all of it depended on the TVA program.1 The stock has dropped a lot since. One tracker shows a loss of about 82% over the twelve months to October 9, while the S&P 500 gained roughly 17%.20 Another report has shares down about 86% from a peak of $57.42.6 On October 12, NuScale fell 7% to $6.72, a new 52-week low that left it down 53% for the year.17

Analysts have turned more negative. UBS cut NuScale from Neutral to Sell and lowered its price target from $10 to $6. It cited a lost first-mover advantage, weak customer commitments, long build times, and about $700 million in negative free cash flow from 2026 through 2028. The shares fell about 16% on the downgrade.1113 RBC lowered its target to $7 but kept a Sector Perform rating. The consensus rating is still Hold, with an average target around $12.37.1114

Shareholders have also been diluted heavily. Weighted diluted share count rose to 364.5 million from 133.4 million, and former majority holder Fluor sold its stake.84 NuScale raised about $962 million from new shares in the second quarter alone. In August it set up a program to sell up to $750 million more.1 The company's $1.9 billion in cash and investments can probably cover the second ENTRA1 payment, but that cushion has been built mostly by issuing stock.18

Why it matters for nuclear-powered data centers

AI-driven power demand is still pulling investors toward nuclear. A 20-year nuclear power agreement involving Google briefly lifted reactor stocks, NuScale included, in early October.18 The White House target of 400 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2050 has not changed.8 But the past year shows that demand for power and a reactor company's earnings are different things. The upside goes to whoever owns the plants and sells the electricity. In the TVA structure that is ENTRA1, while NuScale supplies modules at a capped price and pays its partner for the milestones along the way.1

Our view: NuScale's TVA story is a bet on its licensed technology combined with heavy risk from its counterparty. The deal could still be transformative. An order for dozens of modules would bring revenue in the billions.1 But for now the useful question is not whether a power purchase agreement gets signed. It is what NuScale would actually earn on each reactor after paying its partner and selling under the price cap. The company's November 5 earnings report is when investors expect an update on the TVA agreement, and it may provide some of the answer.6