Nasdaq Opens Lower as Oil Slips Ahead of Bessent Iran Briefing

A familiar open, with an unfamiliar backdrop

The Nasdaq opened lower again, crude eased, and traders waited for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to speak about Iran. Wall Street has run through this sequence many times this autumn. The direction of any one morning matters less than what keeps causing it. Since the U.S.-Iran war began in late February, oil has set the pace for equities. When crude jumps, inflation expectations and Treasury yields rise, and the long-duration technology stocks that dominate the Nasdaq take the first hit.

The pattern is easy to see in recent sessions. On Oct. 8 the Nasdaq Composite opened down 0.53%, a bigger loss than the Dow or the S&P 500, with technology shares leading the decline.8 Brent then fell to $103.53 early on Oct. 9, one session after it rose more than 4%.16 It was trading close to $104.43 that day, about 66% above its level a year earlier.22 Late in September, a Monday open saw the Nasdaq fall 1.24% after Brent climbed past $101 when President Donald Trump turned down Iran's ceasefire conditions.9 Days before that, chipmakers including Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron dropped more than 1% each while the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2004.3

A dip in oil before a Bessent appearance is therefore a bet on his words more than a reaction to supply. In August, crude fell about 4% to a three-week low after Bessent told CNBC that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could arrive within a day or two.2 No such deal followed. The episode still shows how sharply prices react to anything that sounds like diplomatic progress.

What Bessent has been saying, and what the market has done with it

Bessent has recently focused on economic pressure rather than diplomacy. On Oct. 8 Treasury sanctioned 17 tankers it called the remains of Iran's "shadow fleet." The action was part of Operation Economic Outcast, which Bessent launched on Aug. 24.22 He has said Iran has loaded no crude onto a vessel since Aug. 25.21 Reuters and tanker trackers also reported that Iranian loadings fell to zero in September.28 Bessent told The Axios Show that Iran would have no oil at sea and no oil revenue that week for the first time in its history. He predicted oil would end up "much lower" once the conflict is resolved.2324

Markets have mostly not traded on the sanctions themselves, for a simple reason: Iranian barrels left the market months ago. After the shadow-fleet sanctions were announced, Brent rose just 0.14% the next day. Squeezing a supplier that has already stopped shipping adds no barrels and removes very few.22 Even critics who accept the export figures doubt the strategy will end the war. One prominent skeptic argued that zero exports do not automatically leave the regime unable to pay its forces.30

What moves crude is the Strait of Hormuz, and the reporting on it is split. Bessent and administration allies describe a strait that is open to everyone except Iran. Goldman Sachs analysts estimated Persian Gulf exports at about 23.3 million barrels per day over one recent week, back near prewar levels.23 The Energy Information Administration is more cautious. It estimated September crude shut-ins at 4.8 million barrels per day, down from 10.9 million at the May peak, and it assumes Middle East flows stay restricted through the fourth quarter.11 Iranian officials, meanwhile, say the strait will stay closed until Washington accepts seven conditions tied to the failed Islamabad framework.23 Projectile strikes on tankers continued in early October.28

The more convincing reading is the EIA's. Gulf flows have recovered a lot, but the system has no spare capacity, so any fresh attack sends prices higher. The EIA raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $14 to $105 a barrel. It pointed to attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, shrinking global inventories and very tight diesel markets that are increasing refiners' demand for crude.11 Retail diesel averaged $6.199 a gallon in the Oct. 5 government survey, about $2.49 above a year earlier.17

Why data centers sit downstream of a barrel of crude

At first glance, AI data centers and oil seem unrelated. Data centers run on electricity. In the U.S., about 40% of that power comes from natural gas, and petroleum barely features in the forecast generation mix.11 Henry Hub gas traded near $3.03–$3.18 per million British thermal units in early October, while Brent stayed above $100.1320 In terms of fuel, the Hormuz shock has mostly missed the power grid.

The connection is financial. Building AI infrastructure takes huge amounts of capital, and an oil-driven inflation scare raises its cost. September's rise in crude helped revive expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Treasury yields reached two-decade highs.341 One market analysis noted that grid upgrades for data centers are now being financed while Treasury yields sit above 5%. If projects stall, it said, ratepayers could end up paying for that infrastructure.31 Sector outlooks raise the same concern: utilities benefit from data-center demand, but higher financing costs are a real risk for capital-heavy buildouts.16

That is why a jump in oil now pushes the Nasdaq down. The index is heavy with companies whose valuations depend on spending billions on compute and power over many years. When the discount rate rises, those future cash flows are worth less.

The demand curve nobody can agree on

The trend in data-center power demand is clear, but forecasts of its size vary widely. Goldman Sachs raised its estimates in October to 64 gigawatts of U.S. data-center capacity by the end of 2026 and 90 GW by the end of 2027.13 Earlier Goldman figures put power demand at 66 GW in 2027, so the methodology clearly matters. The bank also warned that only about half of near-term scheduled capacity would come online on time.32 Morgan Stanley estimates IT power demand will rise from 9.19 GW in 2025 to 78.57 GW by 2029, and it projects a possible 57 GW shortfall over 2026–2028.3738

There are also reasons for skepticism. Texas paused new data-center connections while ERCOT reviews a large-load queue of about 474 GW, much of which is not expected to be built.32 One consultancy found that utilities' data-center load forecasts filed with federal regulators were about 40% higher than credible industry estimates.32 Community opposition has blocked, withdrawn or stalled more than $170 billion in proposed capacity since January 2024.32

The pressure on prices is already showing up regionally, even if the national totals are uncertain. The EIA expects PJM wholesale electricity prices to rise 41% in 2026, compared with 11% nationally, while Northwest Mid-Columbia prices fall 23%.31 Commentators disagree about the cause. One account stresses that PJM's market monitor named data-center load growth as the main driver of tight capacity conditions.31 Another notes that the EIA attributes much of this year's increase to weather, including a hot summer and winter storms.36 Both points can hold at once. Weather explains the spike, and data centers explain why prices are unlikely to return to earlier levels. The EIA expects commercial-sector electricity demand, which includes data centers, to grow another 2.8% in 2027.11

The longer-term fuel link runs through gas. BloombergNEF projects U.S. data centers could use about 18 billion cubic feet of gas per day by 2035, almost double its estimate from nine months earlier.19 Gas prices have not yet reflected that thesis. Spot Henry Hub sits well below the $4-plus floor in bullish bank scenarios.13

The reading

The best way to read this morning's open is as a rate story with an oil trigger. Crude moves on Hormuz headlines and Bessent's comments. Yields follow crude, and the Nasdaq follows yields. AI infrastructure sits at the end of that chain, as the group most exposed to financing costs.

Investors have already started to rotate within the AI trade. Grid builders such as Quanta Services rose about 64% year to date, while power producers NRG and Constellation fell 32% and 16%.36 GE Vernova reports a $176 billion backlog.34 This suggests markets see more certainty in the companies supplying transformers and turbines than in those whose earnings depend on wholesale prices or on oil-sensitive interest rates.

A real Hormuz reopening could remove much of the war premium quickly.22 Until that happens, every Bessent appearance can move crude, and every move in crude ends up affecting the cost of financing the AI build-out.