Memorial Day Travel Hits Record 45 Million as Gas Tops $4.50

A record that came with an asterisk

The headline number for the 2026 Memorial Day weekend looked strong. AAA projected that 45 million Americans would travel at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25, which would set a new holiday record, slightly ahead of the 44.8 million who traveled in 2025.2 The motor club expected 39.1 million of those trips to be made by car, a Memorial Day record, along with 3.66 million domestic flights.2

The details tell a different story. AAA's own figures put total growth over 2025 at just 0.4%.3 Bloomberg's reporting, carried by Claims Journal, described the car-travel forecast as the least bullish Memorial Day projection in ten years, leaving out 2020, when the pandemic stopped AAA from publishing one.1 Industry press releases called it a record. The underlying numbers looked more like a stall. Travel volumes held up mostly because Americans protected the holiday itself, while the conditions around it got noticeably worse.

Fuel prices driven by war

The main pressure was at the gas pump. On May 21, the first day of the holiday period, AAA's national average for regular gasoline was $4.56 a gallon. That was $1.38 higher than a year earlier and the highest Memorial Day price in four years.5 Bloomberg reported that seasonal gasoline prices had reached a record high, about 50 cents short of the all-time peaks set in June 2022.1

Reporters were consistent about the cause. With the war in Iran close to three months old, the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed, and crude and refined fuel prices were rising worldwide.1 GasBuddy's data showed prices climbing steadily after Israel and the United States attacked Iran in late February.9 Prices also varied widely by state. California averaged above $6 a gallon, while Gulf Coast and Southern states such as Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas stayed close to $4.5

The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy put a price on the weekend: Americans would spend an estimated extra $3.5 billion on gasoline over the holiday.12 GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan argued that holidays are the last trips people give up, and that travelers would still go even if gas reached $6.1 The demand data supported him. Department of Energy figures showed seasonal gasoline demand roughly matching ten-year averages.1

The airfare numbers don't agree

The biggest disagreement in the coverage was over airfare. AAA reported that domestic round-trip flights for the holiday were 6% cheaper than last year, at an average of $800, and that car rentals were down 1%.2 Federal inflation data showed the opposite. The April consumer price index had airfares up 20.7% from a year earlier.14

Both figures can be accurate. AAA said it based its number on what travelers paid at booking, and that most of those Memorial Day trips were booked before jet fuel costs began pushing fares up.2 A AAA representative in New Orleans made the same point, saying many travelers had locked in their trips before fuel prices jumped.8 The CPI figure reflects the market as it stood in spring.

The practical conclusion is that the AAA discount was a leftover from earlier bookings, not a sign of where fares were going. Travelers who planned summer trips after the war started faced much higher prices. The airline industry's troubles reinforce that reading. Rising jet fuel costs led carriers to cancel flights, and Bloomberg linked them to the shutdown of Spirit Airlines, a major low-fare carrier.1 The Associated Press reported that airlines worldwide were cutting routes to save on fuel and operating costs, which left passengers with fewer choices.11

Demand for flying stayed strong anyway. The TSA expected to screen 18.3 million passengers between Thursday and the following Wednesday.6 Airlines for America projected 263 million passengers on U.S. airlines from June through August, and carriers expected fuller planes than the previous summer.4 Cutting capacity while demand holds up generally pushes fares higher, and the reporting that followed through the fall suggests that is what happened.

Shuffling plans, not cancelling them

The AP's reporting, led by airlines and travel writer Rio Yamat, focused on how people changed their trips rather than whether they took them. One Rhode Island mother of three, Stephanie Bernaba, described replacing long Florida stays and an annual Disney World trip with nearby beaches, bike rides and hiking trails.11 Even the smaller plan was expensive. A ferry to Martha's Vineyard cost more than $400, and each of the two hotel rooms the family needed ran about $800 a night. A second family that had planned to join them dropped out after seeing the cost.11 Jim Wang, a personal finance blogger in Maryland, dropped a planned trip to Spain to see an August solar eclipse because of airfare and logistics, and chose a relative's free cabin near Lake Tahoe instead.1815

Industry economists described the same pattern. Bank of America analysts said households were still planning summer trips but making them shorter or choosing cheaper lodging, and Mastercard reported that consumers were changing destinations and timing rather than skipping travel altogether.11 David Tinsley of the Bank of America Institute called it a reshuffling of demand rather than a weakening.11

Other travel costs rose as well. The April CPI showed lodging up 4.3%, local transit up 5.6% and restaurant meals up 3.6% from a year earlier.14 That limits how much people can save by staying close to home. Drivers who skip a flight still pay more for gas, hotels and meals.

Travel spending splits along income lines

The most important development in the coverage may be that travel spending is increasingly described as "K-shaped." Higher-income households kept spending, while lower-income households cut back or stopped traveling entirely.11 Bank of America found that lower-income households were much more likely to say they had no summer travel plans.11

The fuel data shows the same divide. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysis found that in March, households earning under $40,000 spent 12% more on gasoline in nominal terms while buying 7% less of it.1 Those households were paying more and getting less, which is the start of demand destruction for the people with the least room to absorb it. A Quinnipiac poll of registered voters found that 48% had reduced vacation spending, 54% had cut back on dining out and 36% had driven less.11

This split explains how the record and the cutbacks can both be true. A forecast built on aggregate volume can rise slightly when affluent households keep traveling, even as a large share of the country quietly drops out. AAA's forecast partner, S&P Global Market Intelligence, cited consumer spending growth of 5.4%, real GDP growth projected at 2.5% and real disposable income up 1.7%. It also acknowledged that consumer confidence and sentiment were weaker.3 Those averages reflect overall strength but hide how unevenly that strength is spread.

The tourism economy

The effects extend beyond families' budgets. The U.S. Travel Association expected annual travel spending to grow only about 1% in 2026, driven mostly by domestic leisure trips, even though the FIFA World Cup gave international visitors a reason to come.11 That is weak growth in a year with a global sporting event that should have boosted inbound travel.

The AP also pointed to other deterrents: flights to and from Asia rerouted because of the Middle East conflict, a weaker dollar that makes trips abroad more expensive, and lingering memories of government shutdowns that disrupted flights and lengthened security lines.11 Tourism sociologist Marta Soligo of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said unpredictability is what tourists dislike most, and that it pushes them toward simpler, easier trips.11 Virginia Tech hospitality professor Nancy McGehee said travelers were choosing "quality over quantity."18

The winners from that shift are likely to be drive-to destinations, state and national parks, and cruises. AAA expected travel by bus, train and cruise to rise 5%, helped by the start of the Alaska cruise season.2 The losers are likely to be long-haul and resort destinations that depend on expensive flights and long stays.

What happened after Memorial Day

The warnings from the spring look more accurate now. In May, Morgan Stanley warned that U.S. gasoline inventories were on track to reach record seasonal lows by the end of August, and JPMorgan raised the possibility of $5 gas.1 By late September, AAA's national average was still close to $4.48.5 Fuel costs had settled at a high level instead of falling back.

A TPG–YouGov survey conducted in September found that high airfare was the top concern for Americans planning holiday travel. Points Path data showed average domestic fares of $675 for Christmas and $647 for Thanksgiving, both rising.20 Fifty-five percent of respondents said they were not planning to travel over the holidays, and 42% of those still deciding said they were waiting for prices to drop.20 Nearly 70% said price mattered more than their favorite airline.20

The Memorial Day record shows that Americans protected one long weekend, not that travel demand was healthy. Overall volume held steady, but behind it travelers were taking shorter and closer trips, lower-income households were dropping out, fares were climbing for anyone booking late, and growth in travel spending had nearly stopped. The pattern that showed up in May has continued into the fall holiday season.