LA-Long Beach Port Strike Threat Looms Over Record Holiday Cargo

A small union with a lot of leverage

The newest threat to the US supply chain comes from about 250 people, not thousands of dockworkers. Watchmen in the International Longshore and Warehouse Union's Local 26 have voted to authorize a strike at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The walkout could start at 5 p.m. Pacific time on Sunday, November 1, when their latest contract extension runs out.62 These workers handle gate security and cargo watch duties inside the terminals. They make up only about 2% of the ILWU workforce at the two ports.21

The headcount matters less than where these workers stand. According to the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), the employers' group, the terminals that employ Local 26 watchmen handle about 85% of Long Beach's cargo and 33% of Los Angeles' cargo. Together that is more than half of everything moving through the San Pedro Bay complex.16 The PMA also says other ILWU members are not expected to cross Local 26 picket lines. If that holds, ship work, yard operations and truck gates at the affected terminals could all stop.1

So a strike would not just pull security staff off the job. If longshore workers, marine clerks and foremen honor the picket lines, it could freeze much of the country's most important container gateway.3 As of October 28, no strike had begun and talks were continuing.2

How the talks stalled

The watchmen's last contract expired in July 2025. They have kept working under extensions while the two sides met regularly for more than a year.16 The Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service joined at the PMA's request, and the union agreed.9

The two sides describe the talks very differently. In an October 23 letter to other maritime unions, Local 26 President Luisa Gratz said the union's good-faith bargaining had produced "nothing of value." She called the letter a preliminary notice of a labor dispute that would affect their members, and she asked for solidarity.1 The PMA says every tentative agreement so far has started from a union proposal, while none of the employers' proposals have been settled. It describes its own economic offer as strong, with wage increases and pension improvements.16

The employers have also made pay part of their public case. The PMA says full-time watchmen average more than $170,000 a year, plus health care and pensions fully paid by employers. It did not explain how it arrived at that figure.6 Local 26 has not publicly detailed its outstanding economic demands.1 Without the union's side of the numbers, there is no way to judge how far apart the two sides really are. What both agree on is that the gap is large: the PMA itself says significant differences remain.6

The International Organization of Masters, Mates & Pilots, which represents licensed deck officers on US-flag ships, said it would give members at affected berths further guidance as the deadline nears.18 That suggests other unions are at least preparing for a picket line.

Which terminals are exposed

Coverage agrees on the overall scale but differs on the exact list of facilities. The PMA named six container terminals that employ Local 26 watchmen. The union's strike notice listed eight locations.21 One account squares the two: the eight include six container terminals and two non-container berths. The container terminals are APM Terminals at Pier 400, Long Beach Container Terminal, Total Terminals International, SSA Marine's Berths C60 and A90, and Pacific Container Terminal. The non-container sites are SSA's LB 206 and Outer Harbor Berth 55.6 Reports also differ slightly on how many container terminals the complex has. One puts it at 13, while a local outlet says the PMA represents the operators of all 12.23 These gaps do not change the main point. Long Beach is far more exposed than Los Angeles.

Port officials are trying to calm customers. Long Beach CEO Noel Hacegaba noted that the port is not a party to the talks. He said port-wide security from the Harbor Patrol and the Long Beach Police Department will continue regardless.3 That covers public safety. It does nothing for terminal operations if dockworkers refuse to cross picket lines.

A system already running hot

The timing is what makes this dispute worrying. In September, Los Angeles moved about 1.04 million TEUs and Long Beach handled 997,177, both monthly records. Together that is roughly 2.04 million TEUs.6 Long Beach's total was 25% higher than a year earlier.3 July through September was the busiest quarter in the Port of Los Angeles' history.7 Accounts of the September combined total differ a little, with one outlet rounding it to 2 million. All of them call it a record.5

Reporting differs more on why the volume surged. The Maritime Executive points to drought problems at the Panama Canal pushing extra business to the West Coast.7 Another account blames rising ship fuel costs and uncertainty around both the Panama and Suez canals, which has led carriers to rethink where they send ships. Trade policy also played a part. Los Angeles executive director Gene Seroka said tariffs are lower than earlier this year and last year, which gave importers more confidence about costs and let them restock faster.7 The most likely answer is that all three factors pushed the same way, sending more cargo through a complex that had little spare room.

The pressure is showing up on land, not at sea. Nearly 35,700 import containers were waiting for on-dock rail service as of October 26, and more than 10,500 of them had sat at terminals for at least nine days. A count the next day found 34,592 containers waiting. In Los Angeles, 46.9% of its 18,709 boxes had waited nine days or more.6 Average rail dwell time across the complex rose to 7.19 days in September from 6.75 in August. Dwell for containers leaving by local truck rose to 3.18 days from 2.95.6 Rail dwell has gone up every month since March. C.H. Robinson has pointed to shortages of intermodal railcars in Southern California as a cause.6 Seroka said dwell times are something the port is watching very closely. Yet only one ship was waiting for a berth in the week of October 26. In other words, the bottleneck is moving cargo inland, not unloading ships.6

Why a short stoppage could hurt more than usual

This is where the strike threat turns into a question of shortages and costs. A terminal stoppage normally causes delays at the waterfront. This time it would hit a system where containers are already piling up behind a rail shortage. Shutting truck gates and yards at terminals that handle over half the complex's cargo would block one of the few ways cargo is still moving out. It could also add to the rail backlog. My reading is that even a walkout of a few days would take weeks to clear, because the complex has no spare capacity to absorb a catch-up surge. Reporting has already raised concern about holiday goods reaching the eastern United States.

The value at risk is large. The two ports moved more than 20 million containers in 2025, carrying trade worth more than $1.6 trillion. They handle more than 31% of US containerized cargo.3 The National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors advises distributors that rely on imports that even a brief stoppage could delay container availability, inland transportation and restocking.14 Freight forwarder Logfret is telling shippers to plan alternatives for time-sensitive cargo.

One factor softens the outlook. The National Retail Federation expects volumes at major US container ports to fall from 2.25 million TEUs in October to 2 million in November as the holiday rush ends.1 Much of this season's peak cargo may already be in the country. The danger is less about empty shelves at Christmas and more about delayed restocking, cargo stuck in storage, and more expense for retailers and distributors who planned their inventory around a smooth November.

The larger labor picture

The watchmen's contract is separate from the coastwide ILWU agreement, which covers about 22,000 workers at 29 West Coast ports and runs until 2028.2 That deal came out of the 2023 dispute, when slowdowns and terminal shutdowns hit ports including Los Angeles and Long Beach.1 This is a reminder that a coastwide contract does not guarantee labor peace. Smaller, separate bargaining units can still shut terminals if larger unions back them.

There is precedent. In 2012, an 800-member ILWU clerical unit, Local 63, set up picket lines at seven of eight Port of Los Angeles terminals.5 Local 26 is less than a third of that size, but it has more reach. Its members work at the entry and exit points of the largest terminals in the complex.6

My read is that the PMA's public statements, including the salary figure and the warnings about national economic damage, are meant to put pressure on the union before Sunday. Gratz's letter does the same thing from the other side by lining up solidarity in advance. Both sides are raising the stakes in public, which usually comes right before either a last-minute deal or a strike. The PMA has said it will keep negotiating past November 1 if needed.1 That leaves room for another extension, and for shippers it is the best outcome still possible.