IPO Market Setback: Firmus and Oura Join 2026's Scrapped Listings

A record year with a weak middle

By most headline measures, 2026 should have been a triumphant year for the initial public offering. SpaceX listed in June at roughly $1.77 trillion, which made it the largest IPO ever completed, and the second quarter set a record for US listings at $104.8 billion. The fall told a different story. A growing list of companies has withdrawn, postponed or shelved planned listings as investors insist on valuation discipline. That pushback is testing hopes that global equity capital markets are in a lasting revival.4

The latest and largest withdrawal came on Friday. Australia's Firmus, an AI data center operator backed by Nvidia, scrapped a listing that would have been the second-largest IPO in the country's history.120 Taken together, the past few months suggest the IPO window is not shut. It has become narrow and selective, and private-market valuations no longer carry much weight in public-market pricing.

Firmus: a valuation that tripled in two months

Firmus had reportedly planned to raise about $5 billion at A$11 per share, which would have valued the company at around $30.6 billion.20 The size of that number is the key to the story. In August the company announced a $2 billion private round backed by Nvidia, Coatue Management, Blackstone and Jane Street, which put its valuation at just over $10.5 billion.20 The IPO price would have nearly tripled that figure within a few weeks.20

The company's explanations vary slightly depending on who reported them. Reuters coverage said Firmus cited market volatility and prevailing conditions.4 In a statement to CNBC, the company said its board had concluded that the proposed offering terms did not adequately reflect the strength of its business or its long-term growth prospects.20 One summary of the Reuters reporting also pointed to investor concerns about valuation and debt levels.5 These accounts don't really conflict. In practice, the board would not accept the price that public investors were willing to pay. Firmus now plans to raise private capital and keep both public and private options open.20

The effects reached beyond the company. Maas Group shares fell 11% after the IPO was scrapped.8 The withdrawal also hurt the Australian Securities Exchange, where listings are scarce and investors had hoped the deal would broaden a market heavily dependent on banks and miners.9 Earlier reporting said Firmus planned to allocate half of an offering of up to $5.5 billion to existing investors.9 That detail helps explain why new buyers were reluctant at the asking price.

Oura and the problem with strong demand

Smart-ring maker Oura is probably the more revealing case. It postponed its US IPO in late September after aiming to raise up to $2.2 billion. Reports of the valuation it would have reached range from about $14.9 billion to $15.6 billion.414 Accounts of why it stepped back differ in useful ways. One analysis said prospective investors had doubts about the valuation and about a forecast of 90% revenue growth while consumer spending was tightening.14 Other reporting said the order book was about four times oversubscribed, so lack of demand was not the problem.18

The two accounts are closer than they look. An oversubscribed book does not guarantee that a deal will trade well after it prices, and one report argued that Oura's real concern was the risk of a weak debut damaging its valuation and its standing with employees and existing shareholders.18 The structure of the deal also drew scrutiny. Of the 50 million shares offered, 36.5 million belonged to existing stockholders who were selling. At the top of the range, those holders would have received roughly $1.6 billion, while the company's own net proceeds would have been about $6 million. An offering made up mostly of insider sales, priced near $15 billion, was a difficult product to sell in a volatile market, even with strong business numbers. Oura reported revenue up 74% to $1.21 billion over the first nine months of its fiscal year.18

The list of pulled IPOs is growing

Firmus and Oura were not isolated cases. Reuters' running list of 2026 casualties includes:

• Clear Street, a Wall Street brokerage, which dropped its US IPO in February after delaying it and sharply cutting its fundraising target.4
• Holtec Nuclear, which withdrew in September, citing poor sentiment toward both equities and the nuclear sector.11 Another report put the planned raise at $825 million, from 50 million shares at $15 to $18 each.18
• Bamboo Insurance, which had planned to sell 35 million shares at $18 to $20, raising up to $700 million at a valuation above $3 billion.11 One tracker reported that it pulled its NYSE listing on the day it was due to price.23
• Amaero, an advanced materials maker, which postponed a 7.5 million-share US offering.11
• KNDS, the Franco-German maker of the Leopard 2 tank, which put on hold in July a listing expected to value it at around €15 billion. That would have been one of Europe's largest defense IPOs in years.4
• CopperTech Metals, which delayed a $423.5 million offering in June because of volatility in copper stocks.7
• PhonePe, the Walmart-backed Indian fintech, which paused plans in March for a listing at $9 billion to $10.5 billion, citing geopolitical tensions.7

The companies come from AI infrastructure, consumer hardware, nuclear, insurance, defense, mining and fintech, and they span three continents.1 That spread is the strongest evidence that the problem lies in the market as a whole, not in any one sector.

Interest rates are the main cause

Companies tend to give vague reasons such as "market conditions," but the reporting points to specific pressures. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on September 16 to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since 2023.18 Tension involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices volatile, and sharp swings in AI stocks have made technology deals harder to price.18 One analysis said long-dated bond yields had reached a 19-year high. It estimated that every 100 basis-point rise in the risk-free rate cuts the justified valuation multiple of a fast-growing, unprofitable company by roughly 15% to 20%. Foreign investors also pulled $23.5 billion from Asian equities in September as US yields rose.8

This is the most convincing explanation of what changed. The companies themselves did not get worse. The discount rate applied to their future earnings went up. Valuations set in private rounds during a period of easier money became much harder to defend once yields rose.

Different numbers, same direction

The statistics vary by source. Renaissance Capital counted seven postponed or pulled offerings in the third quarter, compared with four in the second quarter and three in the first. Wall Street Horizon used a narrower definition and counted three third-quarter postponements, which still ties its record going back to 2016. It also found that only 62% of the 122 filings in the quarter went on to price, the lowest conversion rate since late 2025.19 The gap between the counts comes from different definitions, and both point the same way.

The bullish case still has some support. One tracker counted 109 IPOs raising $146.5 billion through mid-September, which puts the US on course for its strongest year since 2021. It also noted that 2026 had 245 IPOs by September 22, against 256 at the same point in 2025.23 Large proceeds paired with fewer deals mean a handful of mega-listings are inflating the totals. One analysis argued that without SpaceX, the market looks closed for most companies waiting to list. Investor surveys point the same way. Only 32% of money managers in Berenberg's latest barometer expect IPO activity to rise over the next year, down from 63% six months earlier.15

The market is not completely shut. Cerebras rose 68% on its first trading day in May at a $56.4 billion valuation. Accelevation, which reported $727 million in trailing revenue, priced below its range and kept falling. Companies with a strong story and solid revenue can still get deals done. Others are being priced harshly.

What it means for investors and the AI giants

For investors who wanted IPO shares, postponed deals mean no allocations until a company relaunches with new terms. That could come at a lower price range.18 The larger effect falls on venture capital. When an IPO fails to clear at a company's last private valuation, comparable late-stage companies tend to be marked down and funds take longer to return cash to their own investors.21 Fund distributions are running at about 7.9% of net asset value, compared with a long-run average of 14.5%. About two-thirds of recent unicorn IPOs have priced below their last private round.

The biggest tests are still to come, and reporting on their timing is inconsistent. Anthropic was reported to be targeting October, and later reports moved it to mid-November.15 Reasons given for OpenAI pushing its listing toward 2027 also differ. One report cited internal safety and governance work.19 Another said the CEO wants a valuation of at least $1 trillion, which advisers consider hard to reach at current interest rates.

In this writer's assessment, the Firmus withdrawal is a sign that the market is getting more realistic, not that it is collapsing. Public investors are still buying, but they are no longer willing to accept private-market prices without question. Companies willing to price lower, sell fewer insider shares or show a clearer path to profit can still list. Companies that need their last funding round's price confirmed by public buyers will probably keep waiting for lower interest rates.21