Insurance Premiums 2026: Auto Flat, Health and Home Costs Climb

Insurance costs in 2026: three markets, three different stories

The usual advice for 2026 is to shop around for car insurance and take a higher deductible. That advice misses the larger shift in household budgets. Insurance costs went up across the board this year, but at very different speeds. Car insurance, the policy most consumer guides focus on, rose the least: nationally it has been close to flat after an unusual decline in 2025. Health coverage bought on the Affordable Care Act marketplaces had its steepest price jump in years. Homeowners insurance kept climbing, more slowly than before, on top of several years of large increases.

The view taken here is that auto is the line where the calm is most likely to break, and the reason shows up in insurer claims data more than in today's premiums.

Auto rates: a near-flat national average

Insurify's mid-year report puts the national average for full-coverage car insurance at $2,237 a year, up 1% in the first half of 2026. It projects the year will close at about $2,242, also 1% higher than 202511. That is a 7-percentage-point swing from 2025, when premiums fell 6% and 39 states saw average full-coverage prices drop1112. Rate increases are also spreading. Twenty-seven states saw higher prices in the first half, compared with nine in the second half of 2025, and Insurify expects 32 states to finish the year higher1113.

The forecasts differ in size but agree on direction. ValuePenguin estimated an increase of just 0.67% for 202617. Another summary puts The Zebra's estimate at an average of $2,256 and about 3% growth15. A January outlook citing Swiss Re projected 4%20. All of these are small next to the run of 11.57% in 2023, 17.13% in 2024 and 7.56% in 202514. A flat 2026 still leaves drivers paying for the earlier increases. One trade report put cumulative full-coverage increases since 2021 at 43%18.

The national figure also hides how far apart the states are. Insurify projects Connecticut to finish about 15% higher, with Kentucky and West Virginia up roughly 8% and Illinois and Nevada around 6%11. In some of the most expensive markets, prices actually fell: Washington, D.C., New York and New Jersey each dropped at least 5% in the first half1113.

The forecasters disagree sharply on those same states. ValuePenguin's earlier outlook named New Jersey as the biggest 2026 riser at 10.46%, with New York, California, Nevada and D.C. each expected to rise more than 5%17. Freeway Insurance, which uses actual policy data rather than quotes, found Rhode Island premiums up about 26.6% year over year19. Insurify, by contrast, shows Rhode Island up less than 2% in the first half11. Each firm measures something different, whether quoted rates, filed rate changes or prices on in-force policies. For drivers, the takeaway is that their state and their insurer matter more than any national number.

The insurer you pick makes a measurable difference too. ValuePenguin's figures show State Farm customers facing roughly a 4% decrease. Among midsize carriers, NJM's estimated increase was 21.18% and Erie's 7.92%17.

Claims costs point to higher auto rates ahead

Calling the auto market stable overlooks what is happening to claims. Industry forecasters expect personal auto net written premiums to shrink 0.6% in 2026, one of the weakest growth years in more than 15 years37. Claims costs are not shrinking with them.

GEICO is the clearest example. Its pre-tax underwriting profit fell about 45% in the first half of 2026, compared with $1.82 billion a year earlier39. Berkshire Hathaway's filing showed bodily injury claim frequency up 5% to 7% and bodily injury severity, the average cost per claim, up 10% to 12%3539. Collision and property damage frequency rose 3% to 5%39.

CCC Intelligent Solutions' annual report shows the same pattern from a different angle. Bodily injury severity rose 10.3% over the past year and 32% over four years. A record 23.1% of claims ended as total losses33. The headline repair-cost increase was only 1.7%, but that average combines two very different groups. Repairs on vehicles six years old or newer averaged $5,721, compared with $3,682 for older vehicles. Recalibrating driver-assistance sensors (ADAS), needed on more and more repairs, adds about $486 a job40.

Tariffs are another source of upward pressure. The American Property Casualty Insurance Association estimates that a 25% tariff on imported repair parts would raise collision claims costs by 2.7%, adding about $3.4 billion to personal auto premiums31.

CCC also notes that consumers are absorbing more small losses themselves. Higher deductibles and tighter budgets mean minor claims often go unfiled, so the claims that are filed skew larger33. One claims-advocacy firm says the share of claims under $2,000 fell from 41.5% in 2019 to 25.5% by mid-202538.

Put together, the industry is posting good results now: one analysis reports a personal auto combined ratio of 95.3, the best since the pandemic36. A ratio below 100 means insurers took in more in premiums than they paid out in claims and expenses. Those results rest on rate increases made years ago, while liability costs are rising at double-digit rates. That is an analytical reading, not a forecast from any one firm. Still, the setup resembles the run-up to the 2023–2024 rate surge, and drivers should not count on 2026's pause lasting.

Health insurance: the largest increase

Health insurance had by far the biggest jump. KFF estimated that ACA marketplace insurers raised what they charge by about 26% on average for 2026. That breaks down to roughly 30% in states using HealthCare.gov and 17% in states running their own exchanges6. An Urban Institute analysis cited by the Commonwealth Fund put the rise in benchmark silver premiums at 21.7%1.

What enrollees actually pay rose even more, because the enhanced premium tax credits expired. KFF projected that subsidized enrollees' payments would rise about 114% on average10. Its later look at actual 2026 payments found monthly premiums up 58%, from $113 to $178, and average deductibles up 37% to a record $3,7863. The difference between the projected and actual figures suggests that many enrollees switched to cheaper plans with higher deductibles. That is an inference, not a finding the reporting confirms. Either way, the burden moved from premiums to out-of-pocket costs.

The Commonwealth Fund explains the increase in parts. About 6% to 7% reflects the same medical cost trends driving employer premiums. Another 4% to 6% comes from insurers expecting a sicker pool of enrollees as subsidies shrink. It attributes most of the remaining 9% to 10% to federal policy changes and general uncertainty in the market. Aetna left the ACA marketplace altogether1.

Employer coverage, which far more people rely on, is rising more slowly. Forecasts for 2026 ranged from Mercer's 6.5% to survey estimates of 9%210. Small-group plans rose a median of 11%10. The outlook for 2027 is not much better. ACA insurers have proposed a median 15% increase, which would be a second straight year of double-digit hikes. WTW projects employer health costs rising 11.1%, the largest jump in more than 20 years3.

Home insurance: slower increases on a higher base

Homeowners insurance falls between auto and health. Insurify projects the national average will rise about 4% to $3,057 in 2026, after a 12% jump in 20252629. Through midyear, prices had risen 2.2%22. NerdWallet, using a different method, found a 4.6% annual increase for a typical home and a 24% rise over three years21.

The drivers are regional. Minnesota rose 12.9% and Louisiana 8.6% in the first half, and Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, saw a 33% spike22. Insurify projected California would post the biggest full-year increase at about 16%26. NerdWallet points to heavy wind and hail claims in the Midwest, and to older homes, which now cost 81% more to insure than new construction21. Florida remains the most expensive state at about $8,486 a year, but its increases have eased to 2.3%22.

Insurer finances may limit further increases. One analysis reports U.S. reinsurance rates down 16% in 202627, and forecasters expect better homeowners underwriting results to help the property-casualty industry reach a combined ratio of about 9437. The squeeze on households remains. In a survey by The Zebra, 47% of homeowners said they would struggle to pay their mortgage if premiums went up30. Florida State University research suggests that a 10% rise in premiums lowers home prices by 4.6%25.

What it means for households

The 2026 numbers show three markets moving at different speeds. Car insurance is cheap compared with recent years but rests on worsening claims costs. Health insurance is where policy changes produced the biggest cost shock. Home insurance has slowed down, but prices remain far higher than they were a few years ago.

For consumers, the practical advice still holds: compare insurers, since price differences between them are large, and think carefully about deductibles. But a higher deductible doesn't remove a cost. It moves it from the insurer to the household, as rising ACA deductibles and the decline in small auto claims both show. The signs to watch next are bodily injury costs in auto and 2027 rate filings in health.