Grocery Prices Up 21% Push South Florida Shoppers to Cut Back

The squeeze at the checkout

South Florida shoppers are changing what goes into their carts. CBS News Miami reports that grocery prices are now nearly 21% above where they were a few years ago, and that local households are dropping some items altogether and shopping more carefully for the rest.11 NerdWallet's Sara Rathner told the station that a typical family of four now spends about $1,000 a month on groceries. She added that because food is not a fixed bill like rent or a car payment, it is one of the few places families can actually cut.11

The report also makes clear that this is more than a feeling. CBS cites Federal Reserve data showing grocery store foot traffic fell 1% to 2% over the past year. It also points to its own price check: sirloin steak went from $10.83 a pound in January 2022 to $14.45 a pound this summer.11 One shopper, Anthony Reuss, told the station that steak and lunch meat were the first things he stopped buying once prices jumped.11

One detail needs caution. The CBS headline and video say prices are up "since 2022."12 The article itself, though, measures the roughly 21% rise in the food-at-home Consumer Price Index from January 2021.11 The overall picture holds either way, but the starting year matters. Most of the increase happened in the 2021-2022 surge, not in the past year.

Florida's numbers are worse than the national average

Statewide surveys show the same pattern. A May survey of more than 3,000 Floridians by the lender Advance America found that 35% are buying less fresh fruit and vegetables. Just over half (51%) said they eat less healthily than they did two or three years ago.14 Households that kept buying the same amount of produce reported paying about $28.60 more a month for it, an 11% jump from a year earlier.17

A separate No Kid Hungry Florida survey shows how families are covering the gap. Eighty-two percent said food costs are rising faster than their income, 49% said grocery bills have pushed them deeper into debt, and 27% have used buy-now-pay-later plans to pay for food.14 Among households with children, 49% reported skipping meals or eating less.14 Food bank leaders in Sarasota and Volusia counties say their lines keep getting longer and that families are trading fresh produce for cheaper canned and processed food.14

Energy costs have made things worse. Fuel prices rose after the U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran began in late February, which raised transportation costs for groceries.14 University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith expects grocery prices to behave like gas prices: quick to rise, slow to fall. He cited unresolved tariffs and higher fertilizer costs.14

Inflation is slowing, but prices aren't coming down

The national figures look calmer at first glance. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that food-at-home prices were flat from July to August and up 2.2% from a year earlier. Overall consumer prices rose 3.4%.27 In its September Food Price Outlook, the USDA cut its 2026 grocery inflation forecast to 2.4%, below the 20-year average of 2.6%.21

That is where the national coverage and the household experience part ways. Slower inflation means prices are rising more slowly. It does not mean they are falling. Agricultural analysts covering the USDA update put it plainly: the forecast points to smaller increases, not lower prices.25 A 2.2% rise this year sits on top of an 11% jump from 2021 to 2022 and 5% more in 2023.30 A family whose grocery bill has gone up by a fifth gets little comfort from a lower growth rate.

The averages also hide big differences between products. Beef and veal prices were up 5.9% from a year earlier in August, and fish and seafood rose 6.5%, while eggs fell 23%.26 The USDA expects beef to finish 2026 up 9.4% and fresh vegetables up 5.7%.23 Those are the very items Floridians say they are cutting first: steak and produce. In practice, the households trying hardest to eat well face inflation well above the headline rate.

Some numbers in the coverage don't match. CBS cited a USDA estimate that fresh vegetable prices would rise nearly 7% this year.11 The September outlook puts the figure at 5.7%.23 A Latin Post analysis cites a USDA projection of 2.8% grocery inflation for 2026,30 while the agency's latest published figure is 2.4%.24 These gaps mostly come from forecasts being revised month to month. The more reliable reading is the newest one: overall grocery inflation is easing, while beef and fresh vegetables remain expensive.

Retail sales stay strong, unevenly

If people are cutting back, the national retail numbers don't show it yet. The Census Bureau reported that August retail and food services sales rose 1.2% from July to $773.9 billion, up 6.0% from a year earlier.1 TD Economics estimated that sales still rose 0.8% after adjusting for inflation. It also noted that the control group, which feeds into GDP, gained 1.4%, its strongest increase since September 2024.4

The breakdown by category tells a different story. Sales at food and beverage stores rose just 0.4% in August. Gas stations jumped 3.1%, and online retailers gained 2.6%.3 Some of the gas station increase reflects higher fuel prices rather than more fuel sold.4 Weak grocery store sales alongside rising grocery prices fits what CBS described: shoppers buying fewer items, or cheaper ones.11

Analysts disagree on how shoppers are holding up overall. eMarketer, citing Bank of America data, said the gap between higher- and lower-income households has narrowed. Discretionary spending rose 5.9% for higher earners and 5.7% for lower earners, the smallest difference since January 2024.10 Other forecasters expect that gap to widen again soon, arguing that higher gas prices will eat into real incomes for lower- and middle-income households.9 PYMNTS research found that many paycheck-to-paycheck consumers have already made the easy cuts.6 The Florida survey results support the more worried view. People already borrowing to buy groceries are not in a position to spend more freely.

Interest rates add pressure. The Federal Reserve was widely expected to raise its benchmark rate in September for the first time in three years, as inflation stayed above target.9 Higher rates make the credit cards and installment plans Florida families rely on for groceries more expensive.14

Subscriptions keep getting more expensive

Grocery bills are not the only rising cost. Streaming prices have kept climbing through 2026, and households feel these monthly charges in much the same way. Disney raised its ad-free Disney+ and Hulu plans by $2.50 to $21.49 each per month, its fourth increase in four years. The Hollywood Reporter notes that streaming prices have risen about three times faster than overall inflation since 2022.32 Netflix raised prices on all its plans in March, and its premium tier is now $26.99.33 Peacock raised prices on every tier in August, and Apple TV went from $12.99 to $14.99.33 Deloitte estimates U.S. households spend about $69 a month on streaming.31

The two kinds of costs are linked in household budgets. In a 2025 Blue Yonder survey, 54% of U.S. consumers said they would cut spending on subscriptions to make room for higher grocery costs. That tied with electronics as their second most likely cut, after clothing.18 Streaming companies increasingly use price hikes to improve profit margins.31 As food costs keep rising, they are raising prices on the exact category many consumers say they'll drop first. Bundling and cheaper ad-supported plans give subscribers somewhere to go short of canceling. A typical four-service lineup costs roughly $73 a month ad-free and about $45 with ads.37

What it adds up to

The evidence points one way. The slowdown in national inflation is real, but it is a poor guide to how households are actually doing. Prices are still about a fifth higher than before the surge,11 beef and produce are still rising fast,23 and Florida families report going into debt to pay for food.14 Strong national retail sales, partly lifted by higher prices,4 can coexist with weak grocery sales and households cutting back on what they eat.

The holidays are the next test. Mastercard expects holiday spending to grow 5.5%, but estimates that about half of that growth will come from higher prices.2 eMarketer forecasts 4.1% growth and cites surveys showing smaller gift budgets.10 In South Florida, the more likely outcome is the one shoppers already describe: spending holds up on paper while people buy less.