Global Travel Spending Hits $1.71 Trillion in 2026 as China Rises

Travel is back in a big way — but the shape of the recovery has changed. Global business travel spending is forecast to reach a record $1.71 trillion in 2026, according to the Global Business Travel Association's latest Business Travel Index, an annual benchmark that this year covers 72 countries, 44 industries, and surveys of more than 4,700 business travelers across 66 markets12. What makes that number striking is not just its size but what sits underneath it: trip volumes are barely growing, prices are doing most of the work, and the geography of demand is shifting decisively eastward, with China closing in on the United States at the top of the table34.

A trillion-dollar industry where prices outpace trips

The headline figure from the 2026 GBTA Business Travel Index is a 7.2% rise in global business travel spending, on top of 8.4% growth in 2025 that lifted worldwide spending to $1.59 trillion — a result that itself outperformed the previous year's forecast of 6.6% growth, helped by stronger-than-expected economic activity, easing trade tensions in the second half of the year, and favorable currency effects2. By 2030, global spending is projected to cross the $2 trillion mark, a milestone pushed back a year from earlier forecasts as growth rates moderate after 20262.

The more revealing story is on the volume side. For the first time, the report quantifies global trip counts: roughly 1.82 billion business trips were taken in 2025, and about 1.84 billion are expected in 2026 — an increase of just 1.3%17. Compare that 1.3% trip growth with 7.2% spending growth and the arithmetic is unambiguous: the industry's expansion is being driven substantially by rising transportation and travel costs rather than by people traveling more29.

GBTA CEO Suzanne Neufang framed it bluntly: companies haven't stepped away from travel, but they are increasingly selective and productivity-focused, critically disciplined about where, how and why they travel12. Edward Galvin of Visa Commercial Solutions, whose company sponsors the report, added that as spending grows faster than trip volume, organizations are placing greater emphasis on the value of every journey — demanding more visibility, control and flexibility to manage rising costs and measure return on investment24.

The US and China: a two-market duopoly

The concentration at the top of the market is extraordinary. The 15 largest markets account for $1.43 trillion of the projected $1.71 trillion in 2026 spending — 84% of the global total — and the two largest, the United States at $423 billion and China at $403.7 billion, together represent roughly 48% of everything the world spends on business travel12.

China's rise extends well beyond the corporate travel ledger. New 2026 Economic Impact Research from the World Travel & Tourism Council, produced with Oxford Economics, finds that China is firmly on track to become the world's leading travel and tourism economy in the coming years, propelled by policy reform and long-term infrastructure investment36. In 2025, China welcomed more than 68 million international visitors, up 15.5% year on year — nearly three times the global arrival growth rate of 5.4% — with international visitor spending up 10.5% to $135 billion, exceeding pre-pandemic levels38.

The policy levers behind that surge are concrete: visa-free stays of up to 30 days now cover more than 50 countries, transit allowances were extended to 10 days, biometric entry systems and digital payments have streamlined the visitor journey, and heavy investment in air connectivity and high-speed rail is spreading tourism flows beyond the primary gateways into secondary cities36. Arrivals from visa-exempt markets have increased fivefold since 2020, including 18% growth in 2025 alone8.

The contrast with the United States could hardly be sharper. The US saw international visitors decline 5.5% year on year in 2025, to 68.3 million — roughly four million fewer tourists and billions in lost spending, in what amounts to the sharpest annual drop in international inbound tourism in about two decades outside the pandemic8. China's outbound spending is now forecast to surge 22.5% to nearly $280 billion in 2026, which would put it past the US as the world's largest outbound travel market, and the country already ranks second in business travel spending at $192 billion38[10.

Growth engines and pressure points

The regional picture behind the aggregate numbers is uneven in ways that matter for anyone planning travel budgets. The Americas are benefiting from stronger economic growth, with artificial intelligence and technology investment lifting the US outlook, higher energy prices supporting Brazil, and greater stability in Argentina helping drive gains across Latin America7. Among the top 15 markets, Brazil (13.8%), Australia (11.5%), South Korea (11.3%), Türkiye (10.9%) and Japan (10%) are the fastest-rising17.

The Middle East is the outlier on the downside: business travel volume there is forecast to decline 12.3% in 2026 as regional conflict weighs on activity, while Asia and Europe face mounting pressure from disruptions to air travel and energy markets27. The GBTA forecast also assumes global GDP growth slows from about 3.3% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, with downside risks centered on renewed geopolitical tension, trade disruption, or a sharper-than-expected slowdown in business investment2.

At the sector level, a paradox: mining and quarrying (6.6% projected annual growth through 2030), human health and social work (6.3%) and education (6.3%) will grow fastest, but together they account for just 1.6% of total 2026 business travel spend. Utilities and manufacturing grow more slowly yet still represent 42% of spending today and will keep an outsized grip on the market through 203012. AI and technology investment, from data centers to enterprise software deployment, is emerging as a distinct demand driver in North America and Asia-Pacific, fueling project-based travel and cross-border collaboration7.

What hotel rates say about the consumer behind the numbers

The lodging data adds a crucial nuance: the surge in spending is not uniformly landing in hoteliers' pockets. In the US, CoStar and Tourism Economics have revised their forecasts upward twice this year, now projecting RevPAR growth of 4.4% for 2026 with average daily rate up 3.1% and occupancy at 63.1%, after record room nights sold through the first four months19[15. PwC similarly expects US RevPAR to grow 2.9% in 2026 after a slight decline in 2025, with demand growth of 3.2% outpacing supply growth of 2.3%11.

Yet Amex GBT's Hotel Monitor 2026 expects global hotel rates to stay relatively stable, with geopolitical instability and tariff uncertainty limiting demand and keeping a lid on increases — New York up about 4%, London up 4.2%, and only moderate rises in Beijing and Sydney1320. Travelers, meanwhile, keep trading down: Lighthouse pricing data shows three-star hotels outpricing five-star properties in several regions as consumers hunt value, and US markets show the broadest weakness of any region entering Q4, with 58% of North American markets advertising lower rates than a year ago and median US hotel search down 13.8%1217.

The reading

Put it all together and the story is this: travel demand is structurally resilient but economically strained. Companies and consumers are still traveling — 74% of business travelers say they are traveling as much or more than in previous years, led by Asia-Pacific at 80%7 — but inflation in transportation costs, not enthusiasm, is doing much of the work of lifting spending totals. The market's center of gravity is tilting toward China and the broader Asia-Pacific region, where policy reform and infrastructure are converting into arrivals and dollars at a pace the US and parts of Europe currently can't match. For the travel industry, the message is one of profitable but precarious growth: record spending, a $2 trillion horizon, and a traveler — corporate or leisure — who is watching every dollar more closely than at any point since the pandemic.